Cavorca NCAA Week 14

[cavorca12]

NCAA Week 14:

Virginia Tech -4.5 ..... 1.5 Units

West Virginia -28 (-120) ..... 1 Unit



Not sure why USC just dropped a point to -19, but I'm likely to be on them unless something comes up. Arizona might be a play, still looking at that one. Want to see how the day goes before deciding on an amount, but I'll be on Oklahoma for the late game. Also looking at some totals for Pitt/WV and BYU/SDST.

Too late for a VT write-up, but BC has just fallen back to earth, led by Ryan, since the prev VT game. VT surely motivated by that in addition to ACC Champ. VT much improved since on offense, and defense shut down BC until the final minutes and has been even better since. Gotta think they will be stingy after allowing those late TD's and BC win.

BOL everyone!

[cavorca12]

SEC Championship:

LSU -7 (-115) ..... 2 Units


FYI: I am an LSU fan originally from Louisiana, however, I'm not biased with regards to betting them and rarely rarely do. I had planned on making a large play on LSU until I heard Herbstreits bull**** report this morning. Now, I'm thankful he screwed up, because IMO an LSU play a little stornger now that it Miles' intentions are known. Here are my thoughts real quick:

LSU seniors given much praise for being winninging-est class in LSU fb history and having several other class records, BUT they haven't accomplished anything of significance for their team ---> no SEC or Nat'l Champs. LSU is heavy w/ very very good seniors --- DT Dorsey, LB Highsmith, LB Sanders, CB Jackson, CB Zenon on Defense. WR Doucet, RB Hester (heart of team), and not so important now Flynn. These guys can't win the Nat'l, and imagine dissapointment if they lose the game and finish w/ nothing. It does add more pressure to LSU, but a sense of urgency was something missing recently IMO instead of going through motions.

As for Perrilloux at QB. He throws it a mile and we now will have a QB who can complete deep passes to take advantage of our WR's unlike prev. w/ Flynn who always seemed to finish w/ 180 yards, low ypp, and few long gains or big plays. We have WR speed and can use it now. True dual-threat option, provided he gets completions.

Our RB's should control the game vs TN D front, taking some pressure of Perrilloux. TN can be run on, and we have backs of every running style to take advantage. Perrilloux also great at running, and as LSU did earlier this season, I'm sure you'll see the option and various formations taking advantage of his legs. IMO, our RB's huge key for us controlling game.

On D, we're banged up, no lie. Dorsey is key in middle, everyone here likely knows that whole deal. Especially the Auburn fans here... Regardless, IMO we can still hold TN to cover. Our last 2 showed 2 things we're vulnerable against: 1) scrambling QB (Ole Miss' Shaeffer) and 2) McFadden.
TN has neither, although Ainge surely wants this badly too. The huge key especially important for this game that we've been missing recently is our pass rush. It was great earlier this season and declined along w/ Dorsey. We do get a DL back this week, who will finally alllows us to give more breathers...

[cavorca12]

Well, a little longer than I thought it was. Didn't have much time to put the LSU bet in and write the things I had planned on writing before scrapping it after Herbstreigts early report, so I was rushing. Hopefully its somewhat coherent, as it's been a busy couple days w/o much sleep for me. Anyway, I also have:

USC -19 ..... 1.5 Units


BOL!

[cavorca12]

Later games...

Arizona +7 ..... 1 Unit
Arizona ML +220 ..... 0.5 Unit

BYU at San Diego St. Over 58 ..... 0.5 Unit


Oklahoma also will be in there, won't wait much longer. Probably leaving WVU side as is, but considering the Unders for the game and/or WVU team.

[cavorca12]

Adding:


LSU 2H -6.5 (-115) ..... 1 Unit


Couple thoughts:

Perrilloux looking good IMO. Crowton called majority short passes/screens early on before Perrilloux just missed Doucet deep on the last drive. When LSU brought Perrilloux into games earlier this season, he ran a huge percentage of the time. Kept thinking they would catch someone off guard by openning it up and letting Perrilloux toss it deep. LSU has good enough WR in Doucet, LaFell, and Byrd to beat the TN secondary IMO, although TN secondary playing better than I thought. O-line had some trouble ..... Dorsey noticably limping w/o even trying to hide it anyone..... scoring so far similar to ARK last week, when offenses went crazy in 2H.....2H Over tempting, but not quite a play.

[cavorca12]

Ok, got those last 2 in:


Oklahoma -3 ..... 1 Unit

Pittsburgh at West Virginia Under 59.5 ..... 0.5 Unit




Might add more to OK, but Mizzou burned me last week.

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Pittsburgh at West Virginia 2H Under 26.5 ..... 0.5 Unit

[cavorca12]

Right back all square.

Oklahoma 2H -3 (Even) ..... 1.5 Units


BOL everyone!