Just thought I would share!

[Billy Barooooooo]

I don't know how up to date this is but thought I would share for your capping experience!
Play AGAINST a bowl favorite of 8 1/2 or more if game is before New Year's Day.

Record: 43-17-1

AGAINST Utah, Cincinnati, Boise St, Purdue

Play AGAINST a bowl favorite of 7 1/2 or more if team they are playing is off a straight up loss.

Record: 31-12

AGAINST Utah, Rutgers, Boise St, Purdue

[Billy Barooooooo]

Play on a Teams that played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher.

Anyone have a link to where I can find the Schedule strengths?

I dont like this therory but I'm willing to track!

[Billy Barooooooo]

Pulled this off the net so double check!

Over the last 25 years, underdogs in bowl games that averaged 200 or more rushing yards in the regular season are 44-9 ATS (83%).

Navy, Air Force, Arkansas, West Virginia, Illinois, Oregon, Houston, Nevada, Fresno St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Southern Miss, Michigan St.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Same with this one!
Bowl games in which an SEC team participated, have gone to the dog, 16-1-1 ATS last 18

[Billy Barooooooo]

Play ON bowl underdogs of 7 points or more.

62% covers since 1974
11-1 ats two years ago.
Was not profitable last year so could rebound this year.

The Contenders:

NAVY
SO. MISS
ECU
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN
ILLINOIS
HAWAII
BALL ST.

[Billy Barooooooo]

PLAY AGAINST
Favorites entering their Bowl game off of two or more consecutive losses.

Theory: (It can be argued that a team that has lost two or more games can look at its Bowl game in one of two ways - either it's a chance to end the season on a positive note and make amends for a disappointing finish to what had been a very good season (after all, even a 6-5 team was 6-3 or better before their end of season losing streak). Or, such a team might not be interested in continuing what had been a promising season but which had turned sour down the stretch. Often such a team that is made the Underdog in this situation is a team that had overachieved during the regular season and looks upon this Bowl game as a reward and chance to show they really are an improved team. A Favorite in this spot is more apt to be a team that had higher aspirations but whose late season collapse relegated that team to a much lesser Bowl than had looked likely before the losing streak set in.)

Source: "The 10 Commandments for Betting the Bowls"

2007 Contenders to FADE:

PURDUE: (3 consecutive losses)
ALABAMA: (4 consecutive losses)
CALIFORNIA: (3 consecutive losses)

[Billy Barooooooo]

This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well last year with "running dogs" going 11-2 ATS. The best scenerio to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).

Navy +.85
FAU +.04
Cincinnati +.75
New Mexico +.07
UCLA +.08
ECU +.20
CMU +.23
Texas +2.17
BC +.53
TCU +.16
Oregon State +2.37
Wake Forest +.66
UCF +1.61
Penn State +.90
Bama +.51
Air Force +.55
Ga Tech +2.06
Oregon +.44
FSU +.34
Okie State +1.13
Auburn +.07
Tennessee +.11
Arkansas +1.17
Virginia +.88
Florida +1.66
Illinois +.15
Georgia +2.19
West Virginia +1.05
Kansas +.64
Rutgers +1.09
Tulsa +.35
Ohio State +.46

The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system.

These are the teams with a better SOS (by how much in parenthesis) Could make certain plays stronger.

FAU (8)
Cinn (8.5)
New Mex (3.9)
UCLA (10.8)
ECU (7.8)
TCU (6.4)
Or St (2.5)
Wake (3.2)
G-tech (6.8)
Ore (5.3)
FSU (1.8)
Okie St (5.8)
Aub (3.4)
Tenn (6.8)
Virginia (2.6)
Flor (2.2)
Georgia (17)
Rutgers (7.8)
Tulsa (5.8)

[Billy Barooooooo]

Feel Free to Add some stuff

[hodown]

nice work Billy. here are the numbers i have from the last 3 years of bowls:

ATS: Favs are 32-56
ML: Favs are 50-38

Involving games where the spread is 7 or less at kickoff, if you pick the correct winner s/u, the winner covered 54 of the 59 games. So just like the NFL, if the spread is 7 or less just pick the winner.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Thanks Hodown!

My buddy said to "NCAA FB bowl game. Play favs until after Christmas, than dogs till the end and Play overs all games"

Getting mix results on this! I know one year all favs hit (Think last year) Year before all dogs.

Any feeling on this?

[fitter]

Good stuff BB....although I'm going against Navy tonite!! Def will take your post into consideration for the rest of the bowling season. Keep it coming if you find more info. It is appreciated. BOL

[Nigel Tufnel]

Billy, great, great info, man. Really appreciate the time and effort put into this. I'm filling out a bowl pool and this info is gold, man.

If I win, I'll send you your proceeds. LOL

Thanks again for the time and effort....that's what this place is all about.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel

Billy, great, great info, man. Really appreciate the time and effort put into this. I'm filling out a bowl pool and this info is gold, man.

If I win, I'll send you your proceeds. LOL

Thanks again for the time and effort....that's what this place is all about.

Thanks guys and Thanks Nigel, just win it all! What happen to your other AVATAR?

[Horfin]

BillyB,

Great Stuff man. I liked Navy last night, but wasn't positive it was a play. Your crap in here pushed it over the top.

Thanks!

Horfy

[Queen]

Originally Posted by Billy Barooooooo

Play on a Teams that played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher.

Anyone have a link to where I can find the Schedule strengths?

I dont like this therory but I'm willing to track!

Ok couple years back when me and Yo's buddy S44 oops he goes crazy when he hears that name. It was like only 8 wins by lower SOS. Last year it was just about even.

Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings on USA Today website. Go to sports page. go down to the bottom for Sagarin's ratings. It will give you the page for all sports he rates. Click on Conference it's easier to find that way. Middle of colum list SOS.