Week 4 Discussion

[Daws1089]

I have some free time so I figured I'd get this going as I look over the lines.

Early leans

Louisville +4
miss st +7.5
navy +4.5
unc-1.5
wake +4
sjsu +9.5
minnesota -6.5

I see ksu is getting a lot of love from the public early on. I've only seen louisville play agains kentucky this year, but I was impressed with how their defense has improved from last year and their qb I liked. I could bite on the home dog.

Miss st. plays in a far superior conference than gt and they have played a tougher schedule this far imo. GT did go on the road and play vtech tough, but that effort isnt as impressive as miss st. just about winning at auburn. I would even look at the moneyline here.

Navy. I'm not really sure how rutgers can be favored on the road after a performance like last week. Ok maybe they will be fired up to get a win after that, but I didn't see anything in that game that warranted a line like this especially with how capable navy is at scoring points which is something that rutgers doesn't seem too good at preventing.

unc. Maybe I'm overreacting from last week's win, but they have a decent shot at the acc this year imo. Vtech is really not that great of a team this year. In picking the winner, I think I would go with unc. just a gut play mostly.

Wake looks to be a solid team again this year. Beating ole miss was a solid win in my mind. fsu has played cream puffs so far and I don't know that they have the squad to win this game. Wake is a better team on offense and special teams. Defense they could be equal or maybe fsu is a little better.

sjsu. This looked a bit high to me. sjsu is a better team than most think. They rarely get any press but have been solid this year. Stanford doesn't look like an appetizing bet and not sure how they can be this large of a fav.

minny will get a fau team that is traveling back to the north for a second straight weekend after going to mich st on saturday. Granted the weather was awful, the fau offense showed me nothing. A couple big plays were called back I understand, but 10 punts in 10 posessions is just bad. I'm banking on fau not wanting to fly back up there and play a solid game. This is the play I am most willing to cut out of the list bc I am not very familiar with minnesota.


Would love to hear others opinions on these games and others they like this week.

[hodown]

wake with 2 weeks to prepare

[NittanyLions94]

Some that I'm looking at:

Iowa +1 @ Pittsburgh

Pitt is very, very, very bad.

Wake +4 @ FSU

Seriously? FSU laying points? They haven't even played a D-1a team yet. I'll take a chance.

Notre Dame @ Michigan -9

Notre Dame gave up 150+ on the ground to Michigan. I can only imagine what Javon Ringer will do to that D. Add in Jimmy Claussen on the road and it's a recipe for a blowout.

Miami -4 @ Texas A&M

aTm lost to Arkansas St. Miami has the athletes to really put it on them.

Georgia @ Arizona St. +7

Georgia has stuggled stopping the pass, and I think Arizona State will be able to throw the ball against them. Cross country trip. This smells like an upset.

[hodown]

ASU +7 vs UGA

the ASU game is definitely a trap game. coming off a bad loss at home to UNLV, combined with the long trip, this should be a close game.


Florida -7.5 @ Tenn

I just don't see how Tenn's offense can keep up here. Tenn must be able to run the ball, b/c if they have to rely on Crompton they'll get blown out of the water. I hate to lay over 1 score in a road-rivalry game, but Fla is the class of the SEC imo.

Lsu -3 @ Aub

Auburn's defense is scary good, and Auburn's offense is scary bad. Winning big games on the road in the SEC is hard to do, and it's probably stupid to take road teams that are actually giving points, but I don't think Aub wins this game. Curious to see where the under comes out, as I'd expect both teams to keep it close to the vest on offense.

[MiamiSportsFan]

Unbiased, but Miami has too many athletes and playmakers now to have a close game with A&M. Tough place to travel to, but we just left the Swamp two weeks ago, and we played well there...Florida > a&m. Heck, we even beat a&m last year!

Florida -7.5
Like you said, if the Vols can't run the ball, they are going to get smacked by a ton of points.

ASU +7
I'm not completely sold on this, but as someone who habitually teases games like this, ASU +13 or more is a pretty solid bet, especially after UGA looked less than stellar in Columbia last week.

wake +5.5
FSU has played two community colleges - still suffering through the suspensions from the offseason, and with the QBs first "real" start. Wake is tough on D and efficient on O. I'd almost bet the ML on this one cuz I think Wake is the better team. 4-1 ATS against FSU in the last 5.

[hodown]

i think Miami is infinitely more talented than A&M as well, but there's just too many question marks with both teams for me to lay either way.

- is A&M really that bad to lose to Ark St at home?
- Miami's def is excellent, but the offense is nothing to write home about
- A&M is generally tough at home, and Mia is starting a redshirt frosh at qb

4 seems like the right number, and i cant see either team really running away with this one

[Daws1089]

a&m qb is also questionable.

[Underdog88]

I think Georgia will beat the ever loving **** out of Arizona state. Yes Georgia's pass D looked bad vs SCar, but that is historically a closely played, low scoring game. When is the last time Arizona state faced an SEC team? Georgia should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, & when that happens you don't win. UNLV ran for 135 yards on Az state, IMO Moreno will run for 175 or more, Georgia will control TOP & win convincingly. SEC over Pac 10 99% of the time.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by MiamiSportsFan

Florida -7.5
Like you said, if the Vols can't run the ball, they are going to get smacked by a ton of points.

ASU +7
I'm not completely sold on this, but as someone who habitually teases games like this, ASU +13 or more is a pretty solid bet, especially after UGA looked less than stellar in Columbia last week.

If Florida will win by a ton of points because Tenn won't be able to run, why won't the Bulldogs? They held SCar to 18 rushing yards last week! IMO teasing ASU to 13 isn't that great, as 2 td still beat you. Not a fan of laying road chalk, but I honestly think this is a 20+ pt win for Georgia.....

[Daws1089]

good points udog.



hmmm miss st now up to +8.5. who is pounding gtech?

[MiamiSportsFan]

I think K-State is going to be a good look tomorrow night

[MJJM888]

Originally Posted by hodown

i think Miami is infinitely more talented than A&M as well, but there's just too many question marks with both teams for me to lay either way.

- is A&M really that bad to lose to Ark St at home?
- Miami's def is excellent, but the offense is nothing to write home about
- A&M is generally tough at home, and Mia is starting a redshirt frosh at qb

4 seems like the right number, and i cant see either team really running away with this one

Got to go with Miami the D-fence will harass em & get a couple scores and make the difference here.

[MJJM888]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

good points udog.



hmmm miss st now up to +8.5. who is pounding gtech?

Going with the under in this game. It should be around 45.
See link for Analysis.
College Football Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ga Tech Yellow Jackets Matchup Analysis at VegasInsider.com, the leader in Sportsbook and Gaming information - College Football Matchups, College Football Matchups, NCAA Football Matchups,NCAA Football M

[hodown]

Tenn needs to be able to run bc crompton won't help them out thru the air. With regard to asu, I think carpenter is very capable. Now whether they cover the number or not is to be debated, but I think asu can put up pts, not sure if tenn can

[bigbag12]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

a&m qb is also questionable.

dont let that scare ya. our backup JJ is jsut as good, but most likely better(way more moves and speed). Mcgee won the startin g job this spring due to experience, but it was close. look for JJ to win the starting job if he starts 2 games while Mcgee is hurt..

Mcgee will not play. trust me.

but i would lean with MU also.