Week 6 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

I am thinking right now that AUB -4 is a very strong play for Saturday. VANDY is a fraud and their QB is banged up. They are 4-0 because of 1 thing....turnovers. And not necessarily caused by VANDY....freeking OlePiss player falls down and coughs the ball up going in for the winning score 2 weeks ago. MIA(oh) gave them 2 fumbles.......AUB OWNS this series ATS and SU and i think will push around this Vandy team. I think the oddsmaker is telling you who he likes by setting this line at -4. I mean you're sitting here saying Vandy is for real...they're 4-0....huge home game vs. an AUB team that can't score....AUB off 2 straight tough home games......and then the line comes AUB -4. And i haven't seen any sharps pounding Vandy when the line came out from what i can see.

If anyone has any insight on the line move in that game let me know or any thoughts.


Also find it hard to believe OSU -2 at Wisconsin. A place they historically have struggled and vs. a team they have struggled with since the days of Art Schlichter. They haven't beaten WIS B2B in 12 years and almost lost to them at home last year. WISC is the one team that can match OSU physically in the trenches and won't be pushed around. They will slow the game down and quite frankly i have been anything but impressed with OSU's front 7 this year....vastly overrated. And this is WIS season pretty much and Big10 season. No way they go down 0-2 in the Big10 and get to a BCS game or even a top tier Big10 bowl game. 7PM night game nationally televised.....tough place to play.........and if you weren't sold on OSU laying 17 at home vs. Minnesota, how in the world can you lay a FG on the road with them.........Pryor's first road start and probably other than PSU the toughest crowd in the big10. Not seeing an OSU victory here in all honesty. OSU's play calling on offense and the mind set of Tressel will make this a close game and i would much rather take than lay here. Although, the only thing i do like is if the pocket protector sweater vest guy does take off the reins on the offense and lets them play i think they have more speed than WIS can handle on offense. But he never does that so it's hard to use that in the handicap. He will play not to lose like he always does.

Thoughts? I know UDOG says OSU ML....would like to hear those thoughts Udog....


Also LOVE CSU this weekend and i see the line moving up to -2 now. UNLV is in an AWFUL spot here off a rivalry loss that they spent everything on and 2 OT games before that. They are 1-11 L12 vs. CSU and not good against the spread either. I wouldn't be shocked to see a flat UNLV team here and a 1H play on CSU may be a good option.

but haven't made any plays yet. Curious to hear other's thoughts on these or any other games.

[MParris86]

At first glance, really like AZ ST getting +9 against a Cal team that will be without Jahvid Best due to injury.

[FlyersFan]

anyone know 100% if Jarvis is back for Kent State this week? Looks like he is very probable and should play vs. AKR.......makes a big difference if he plays. Points don't look that bad, though, AKR owns that series.

[mike333]

I'm on Vandy +4 this week. My numbers have Auburn priced at -120... a 65 cent value. Line opened at 6. Last week several lines moved in my favor at kickoff but none came into play. I'm also on Colorado St... line should be -9.

[joepa66]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

anyone know 100% if Jarvis is back for Kent State this week? Looks like he is very probable and should play vs. AKR.......makes a big difference if he plays. Points don't look that bad, though, AKR owns that series.

Don't look for Eugene Jarvis to roll this week.....he is listed by the athletic department as "out" for week 6 and starting tight end Jameson Konz who injured his ankle in the opener vs. Boston College is out for the season after they listed him as questionable each week. Jarvis has a high ankle sprain and could be lost for the rest of the year as well, but he's definitely not going to be available for at least 2-3 more weeks......I'm on the Zips!

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

I am thinking right now that AUB -4 is a very strong play for Saturday. VANDY is a fraud and their QB is banged up.

AUB OWNS this series ATS and SU and i think will push around this Vandy team. I think the oddsmaker is telling you who he likes by setting this line at -4. I mean you're sitting here saying Vandy is for real...they're 4-0....huge home game vs. an AUB team that can't score....AUB off 2 straight tough home games......and then the line comes AUB -4.

I dunno about that one FF.. IMO books threw a horrible number out with 6. Is Vandy for real? Maybe not as good as their record would indicate, but I give them credit for beating SC & Miss. They are still playing a divisional game @ home with revenge. They have for the most part protected the ball & benefitted from turnovers for sure, but isn't that how most games are won? They were outgained by SC, but were able to run vs them. They definitely stole one from Ole Miss...

IMO it has to be set as Aub being the fave, line comes out @ a pick & Auburn gets all the action. Likely same thing if they even come out-3. I still think there is the perception that Auburn is still a really good team. Their defense is still solid but have you watched the offense? I just don't see how you could back that bad of an offense in a divisional road game, as a fave! Look at their numbers offensively...

7 offensive points vs. the Vols- they averaged 2.6 ypc, 129 passing & an int. They put up a respectable 14 vs LSU, but still had 2 turnovers & 1.9 ypr! They allowed 178 on the ground to LSU & 124 to the Vols. 3 points @ Miss st for christ's sake! So in the last 3 games the offense has put up 24 combined points. When your offense is totally incapable of running, there will be quite a few long yardage 3rd downs & short TOP. I could see Auburn holding Vandy to a low score, but if they can't score either.... IMO this is a game where Vandy could put up 13 points & still have a decent chance of a su win, given of course they don't turn the ball over. JMO.

[hodown]

Auburn -4
I dig Aub here as well, in a pick the winner scenario. They do have solid wins over SC and Ole Miss, but Aub is a step up from those teams imo. Vandy will come out of the gates emotional being that this is one of the biggest games for them in a long time, but I'll take a team that's been there over a team that hasn't.

Purdue +13
This line opened at -11.5 at my site. I don't think this Purdue team is any better than Illinois, but getting almost 2 tds at home is a good number, especially for a respectable team. Psu has been beating people up this year, but this will be their first true road test, and Psu has Wisky, Mich, and Osu on deck.

Missouri -11
Always a tough game for Mizzou to play, but I didnt buy into Neb last week and I'm not going to this week. The schedule for them has been soft, and if they're giving up 35 to VT, how are they going to stop Daniel?

Colorado +14
I think there's value here with Colo being a good home team, and the RRS looming for Texas. Couple that with Texas playing nobody in the first four games, and I think that Colo can keep it within the number. Not buying into a resurgent Colt just yet.

Arizona St +9
Dont think ASU is as bad as their record indicates. They got caught in a look-ahead game and got beat by a better team in another. With the USC loss, the conference just got a little more wide open, and neither of these teams has lost a conference game. I think this stays within one score either way.

Notre Dame -7.5
Think it'll be tough for Stanford to win two straight road games, and considering this a pick-the-winner scenario. ND is starting to improve on the offensive side of the ball, and I dont think Stan will put up enough points to stay with them.

just some of my early leans on this week, the OSU/Wisky game is a tough one to call. I think the correct play is Wisky but I dont really want to bet against OSU in a big time Big 10 game. Id imagine when their spread is less than 7, theyve been more than solid over the last few years

[NittanyLions94]

Originally Posted by hodown

Purdue +13
This line opened at -11.5 at my site. I don't think this Purdue team is any better than Illinois, but getting almost 2 tds at home is a good number, especially for a respectable team. Psu has been beating people up this year, but this will be their first true road test, and Psu has Wisky, Mich, and Osu on deck.

Agreed that if you have to take a side, that's the one. PSU has struggled historically with their first road Big 10 game(see: 2005 @ Northwestern) and to boot they never do good with noon road starts. But I'd be careful because Painter may have a mental block against PSU. He has led his team on only one TD drive against a PSU defense, and has never thrown a passing TD in his 3 career starts against them.

But I agree, 13 is too much for their first road game, especially at noon

[Underdog88]

Some initial thoughts.......


Penn State-13 @ Purdue

I'm leaning Penn St here. Notre Dame beat the Boilermakers handily, & really made Purdue's defense look terrible. IMO Penn State will win/cover here, then go 1-2 in their next 3 games. They are putting up points, with a pretty balanced offense to boot. Purdue allowed 201 rushing yards to ND last week, & PSU would love nothing more than to run the ball down their throats. IMO this line is begging for takers on the homedog. Looking at 13 you think it's a ton, but do you think that Purdue will win? If you do, than play em. Just something I noticed about Purdue- In the last 2 years their home losses have been by DD.

last season's home losses

Lost by 16 to OSU

Lost by 17 vs Mich St

2006

lost by 21 to Wisc

lost by 12 to PSU

lost by 17 to Maryland


I'm going to be on a 3 team tease this week, & PSU is definitely one leg of it.





Another one is NMexico- pts

Wyoming is flat out terrible in the pass game, & without a clear cut starting qb. They are averaging something like 107 passing yards per game. Coach Glenn will likely be fired at season's end. Oh yeah, & 19 turnovers in 5 games! Tough to win with those numbers...




Other plays I like

USC-16.5- Congrats to Oregon for beating the **** out of two teams with no defense on the road. Boise still beat them on their own turf (thanks for the ml cashing!). Now they walk into possibly the worst situation, road game off a huge win & facing USC off a terrible road loss. This is going to get very ugly. Would like to see the USC team total & 1sth line as well.

UConn+7 & ml- cashed on UNC +ml last week, now favored by 7? No f'n way

Stanford+7.5- hook out there & I'll likely bite. Still don't think ND deserves to favored by more than a td.

Illinois ml- big time letdown situation. Would love to get the 3 or better here though. Who knows how the line will move.

UCLA-16.5- Wash st really is that bad.

Utah- pts. Don't like laying 11.5, but a bad situation for the Beavers. Screams letdown, & Utah is a solid team. Line would be 17.5+ had they not just beat USC, so I see value in the home team here. Another leg of my teaser most likely.




Haven't seen any totals numbers yet, but from a matchup standpoint I want to see the lines on....


Kansas/Iowa- looking for an under

Ohio/WMich- over lean

Auburn/Vandy- bigtime under lean. Hoping for a 40.

[FlyersFan]

hey Udog- look at that IU/MINN total whenit comes out. Over has been a staple of that game and i don't see that changing anytime soon. 69 PPG L7 i believe.

[Stifler's Mom]

IS it me, or is Texas A&M by far the worst team in any BCS conference?

God they suck.

So much so that I'm tempted to lay the -25 with Oklahoma St, LOL

[The Gipper]

Purdue got gashed in the 3rd Q by ND's run game and after, Tiller said they have only 1 real LB -- all the others are playing ou tof position to fill in. PSU must be salivating looking at the ND game film. That said Painter, was hit almost on every one of his 59 passes and still got the ball in his receiver's hands to make plays, Look for PSU to wear them down late but I don't know if they can cover on the road in their first trip. It's a no play for me.

Am heading out to South Bend Thursday for an Irish weekend to see ND vs Stanford. We'll let you know up close and personal if ND has turned the corner or last week was just part of the growing pains. They do have talent in the lower classes. Of the 14 TDs this year, 13 have been scored by freshmen and sophomores. The future looks very bright!

[Irish Sooner]

My favorite play on Saturday is UCLA -17.5 at home versus the worst BCS team in dvision 1A. There are some trends that point to Wazzu covering here, but you can blow those out of the water because Wazzu is horrible, they have true freshman QB who was 3rd string to start the year. Wazzu games thi year.

Oklahoma St. (-8) (neutral field) osuwon 39-13 and if you watched the game it should have been 53-13.
Caliornia (-13.5) - Cal won 66-3.
at Baylor (-6.5) - Baylor won 4517.
Portland St. (NL) - wazzu won 48-9.
Oegon (-21) - Oregon won 63-14.

If UCLA can not beat this team by 3-td's Neuheisel should give it up now. UCLA at home and a chance to let the young QB develop a little, he will play late and UCLA runs this score up. UCLA has played Tennessee, BYU, Arizona, and Fresno St. - pretty tough schedule no matter who you are.

[NittanyLions94]

Noon road games in conference over the last few years for Penn State:

2007:

W Indiana 36-31

2006:

W Minnesota 28-27
W Purdue 12-0

2005:

W Northwestern 34-29(Late TD, PSU trailed much of the game)


All tight games against far inferior opponents.

[shetown]

Any thoughts on Tulsa (-14) over Rice ???

I think Tulsa may be "that" team this year that screws everything up at the end of the year. If they have a decent D performance, I see them winning by 20+ this week. Christ, Vandy beat Rice by 17 and don't have near the offensive fire power.