Early Looks

[hodown]

Penn St @ Wisky +5
A few good trends for Wisky: Haven't lossed 3 in a row in 4 years, and haven't lost 2 consecutive home games in 6 years. Honestly, I'm surprised PSU is giving more than 3, especially with OSU giving around 1.5 for most of the week. I guess the public perception is that PSU is a better team than OSU and I'm not sure that's the case. I think PSU is good, but just think OSU is undervalued b/c USC steamrolled them, but USC could steamroll anyone when they're motivated to do so, imo. PSU had a nice road win at Pur, little shocked they only managed 20 but did not see the game. Wisky coming off two heartbreak losses in games they coulda/shoulda won. The question here is Wisky's motivation, whether they tank it or come out fighting. They're better than 3-2 indicates and still have a New Year's Day bowl for motivation, and PSU obviously has national title implications so their motivation isn't in question. I think this game stays tight and could go either way. Wisky is a little more battle-tested, they have the home crowd, and it's at night, so getting more than 3 points makes for a nice play imo.

Oklahoma -6.5 vs Texas
Just picking the winner here. Should be a fun game and good to see both teams taking care of business in their let down games before the RRS. Statistically both teams are dominant, SOS fairly identical. The game will be decided in the trenches imo, and the team that control the line of scrimmage and run the ball better will win the game, which is why I'm choosing OU. Currently McCoy is the leading rusher for Texas, and I can't see that flying against this OU defense. .

LSU @ Florida -4
Think this line is about right on. Fla's SOS about 70 spots higher. Freshman qb in the swamp at night. Lee performed quite well against a better defense at Auburn. The difference here is that Fla knows who to gameplan for, whereas Auburn was somewhat gameplanning for Hatch and Lee. Florida's offense is light years ahead of Auburn's, and the one worry for me is Fla's lack of a rb. The good news for Fla is that most teams aren't going to beat LSU by running through them, and that's not Fla's style. Game will probably come down to turnovers, where Fla is +8 and LSU is -2, and I dont think Fla will lose two in a row at the swamp.

Also peeking at UNC, Miss St, Kansas St, Kentucky, and NW.

[Underdog88]

Not too much time right now, but Buffalo-1, Baylor-4 over Iowa state look like winners. Liking NW ml over Mich state too.....

[FlyersFan]

been waiting all year for a couple of these spots to go against these teams....

MISSST +3 and BUF -1......already played both of them.

i do agree on WIS......you have to go way back as was pointed out to see WIS lose a night game period and then a 2nd one, who knows. I was at the OSU/wisconsin game and was not impressed at all with the WIS passing game. They are truly a 1 dimensional team, but getting almost a TD with them at home is rediculous IMO. They have a very good defense and i expect another similar game to the one last Saturday and if you took 2 with them at home vs. OSU, i don't see how you can lay 5 or 6 with them this week. PSU is no better than OSU and i would argue that OSU presents a lot tougher defensive matchup with Pryor and Wells than PSU does. That was a really tough environment last weekend (even minus those crazy bandos that were suspended....). I think WIS pulls the upset here.

[BoilerBacker]

At first glance, I like all three dogs....a lot.

Oklahoma has really played nobody. If you look at TCU, TCU has beaten nobody. So I do not really know how good they are. Texas has not really played a tough schedule either, but they looked pretty impressive at Colorado particularly the week before the OU game.

Wis getting five at home is almost a steal. Purdue pretty much stopped Penn State on Saturday. Kicker screwed any chance of PU coming close.

Fla -4 looks like a chump line to take LSU. I doubt it will take much to fire up them vs. the defending champs.

Fade Purdue. They are going to get rocked unless Drew Brees and Kyle Orton reappear on campus.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

Kicker screwed any chance of PU coming close.

.

that was like a bad movie that kept getting worse.....

i should probably appologize to you on that. i get cornholed everytime i play Purdue and that had the same feeling of the last time they played there and PUR lost like 10-0 and couldn't cover the 6 or whatever it was........i can't get a solid effort out of PUR unless i play against them

i really don't know what to do with that game this week, though. Seems like the number is about right....OSU by about 16-17. But hard to lay anything on PUR after watching that kicker give away points left and right. OSU in typical letdown mode.

[williwonka05]

i like army at home getting a point and a half

army has been playing good

a&m only beat them by 4
and they dominated tulane this past week

and
Texas Tech -20


They will score 1 more point than missouri did against bo pelini .....

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by williwonka05

i like army at home getting a point and a half

army has been playing good

.....

....i think you and i are about the only ones on that side but they will be a play for sure this week for me. should be able to catch maybe even a 3 later in the week with Army. EMU is 101st in the nation against the run and they will struggle with Army and the option. EMU off a huge win too. Great spot for Army IMO.

[Livin tha Life]

ARRRG. Miss st. is just so fucking unpredictable. This seems like a great spot to go against vandy, but it scares me thinking of backing those particular bulldogs.

[williwonka05]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

....i think you and i are about the only ones on that side but they will be a play for sure this week for me. should be able to catch maybe even a 3 later in the week with Army. EMU is 101st in the nation against the run and they will struggle with Army and the option. EMU off a huge win too. Great spot for Army IMO.

i like army

homecoming and they are dying for a home win

they've lost 5 straight at home

[Stifler's Mom]

WIS is a play I would make 10x out of 10, but something doesn't seem right there...

Everyone and their granny knows at this point how WIS doesn't lose at home, and even more so at night. They were even announcing it all over ESPN last week before the OSU game, so why +5 and +6 everywhere you look?

The books surely aren't looking for PSU action here, or why not just plain old PSU -3? Or even less? Even so, they are apparently getting plenty of it with the line rising, and IMO at this point they're begging for WIS money.

More so, why are the sharps not POUNDING this and keeping the line in check, on what is surely an easy ml winner, since WIS won't lose 2 straight night games at home, right? Catching almost a TD with WIS @ home has GOT TO BE sure money!

I'm not buying any of it, and the oddsmakers and sharps don't seem to be either.

PSU is the better team (by quite a bit), and their struggles vs PUR may have had a little to do with this upcoming "big game"? Wouldn't be the first time.

In any case, i'm not gonna be one of the takers on WIS +6. All things considered, it looks like a big fat sucker bet to me.....

[hodown]

i agree that the wisky line is moving the wrong way. i got it right at 5 thinking that itd be going down for sure, and its actually going up. its very possible the line comes back down closer to game time. even in a pick the winner situation i like the points and think its a fg game either way. wiskys defense has played well up to this point, facing a SOS of about 60 spots better than psu. the one respectable team that psu played (illinois), they gave up 370 yds of total off, which isnt bad but not great. psu is a hard team to cap because they havent played the competition, (especially on the road), that wisky has up to this point.

[hodown]

Oklahoma/Texas under 57
I think above I stated it could be a high scoring game, which it could. But all you hear about is how good the offenses and qb's are in the Big 12, but OU and UT aren't 1 and 5 in the nation just because of their offenses. Texas is a little young in the secondary, but I think this turns into more of a ball control game, as I cant see a Muschamp defense just letting OU throw the ball all over the field against them. Front 7 is solid and the secondary will bend but not break, perhaps giving up lots of fg's. OU def getting back to full strength, and should be able to slow a one-dimensional UT offense imo. Both teams averaging over 470 yds of total offense and 47 points a game, playing against a schedule strength of 80 and 89. I think it's a similar score to last year, with maybe a few more fgs involved than td's. If the line moves to 7.5 I'm coming back with Texas to try and hit the middle.

[Stifler's Mom]

Personally I don't see how PSU having slight issues stopping a mobile QB running the option relates to if they will be able to hold up against WIS or not. PSU did seem to figure it out vs ILL too after a little bit, and after the initial 14 pts, didn't really give up much other than some yards.

If i were a PSU fan, I'd be far more concerned with my national title hopes being crushed @ OSU in 2 weeks than this week against a WIS team who hasn't done diddly doo dah this year. Hell, I think @ Iowa in 3 weeks is even more of a concern IF they are able to get by WIS/MICH/OSU, because Iowa is probably as good or better than WIS, and that would be a big time letdown spot for PSU.

I hear about how PSU hasn't proven themselves against top competition, and that may be true, but at least they beat everyone put in front of them so far. Wisconsin hasn't....and in addition, all 3 of Wisconsin's wins are against garbage (Fresno is SOOOO overrated, and they barely took them), and I don't see how they are a good play just because they are at home where they used to be solid.

If i play on PSU, it will be less about how GOOD PSU is (or isn't) and more about how BAD WIS is. The same WIS team that shit all over themselves after taking a 19-0 lead on a MICH team who is clearly not anywhere near the caliber of PSU this year, and almost lost to a Fresno team who lost to freakin Hawaii @ home last week and almost managed to lose to Toledo 2 weeks prior.

All i'm saying is think about what I'm saying to anyone on the fence with this game before ultimately making your own choice. The oddsmakers are begging for WIS action here, not PSU, and if there's a team who has done nothing worth a shit, it's WIS.

WIS +6 @ home against anyone just has to blindly look too good to be true to anyone who has any experience....because it probably is.

[Livin tha Life]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

WIS is a play I would make 10x out of 10, but something doesn't seem right there...

Everyone and their granny knows at this point how WIS doesn't lose at home, and even more so at night. They were even announcing it all over ESPN last week before the OSU game, so why +5 and +6 everywhere you look?

The books surely aren't looking for PSU action here, or why not just plain old PSU -3? Or even less? Even so, they are apparently getting plenty of it with the line rising, and IMO at this point they're begging for WIS money.

More so, why are the sharps not POUNDING this and keeping the line in check, on what is surely an easy ml winner, since WIS won't lose 2 straight night games at home, right? Catching almost a TD with WIS @ home has GOT TO BE sure money!

I'm not buying any of it, and the oddsmakers and sharps don't seem to be either.

PSU is the better team (by quite a bit), and their struggles vs PUR may have had a little to do with this upcoming "big game"? Wouldn't be the first time.

In any case, i'm not gonna be one of the takers on WIS +6. All things considered, it looks like a big fat sucker bet to me.....

Ditto

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Personally I don't see how PSU having slight issues stopping a mobile QB running the option relates to if they will be able to hold up against WIS or not. PSU did seem to figure it out vs ILL too after a little bit, and after the initial 14 pts, didn't really give up much other than some yards.

If i were a PSU fan, I'd be far more concerned with my national title hopes being crushed @ OSU in 2 weeks than this week against a WIS team who hasn't done diddly doo dah this year. Hell, I think @ Iowa in 3 weeks is even more of a concern IF they are able to get by WIS/MICH/OSU, because Iowa is probably as good or better than WIS, and that would be a big time letdown spot for PSU.

I hear about how PSU hasn't proven themselves against top competition, and that may be true, but at least they beat everyone put in front of them so far. Wisconsin hasn't....and in addition, all 3 of Wisconsin's wins are against garbage (Fresno is SOOOO overrated, and they barely took them), and I don't see how they are a good play just because they are at home where they used to be solid.

If i play on PSU, it will be less about how GOOD PSU is (or isn't) and more about how BAD WIS is. The same WIS team that shit all over themselves after taking a 19-0 lead on a MICH team who is clearly not anywhere near the caliber of PSU this year, and almost lost to a Fresno team who lost to freakin Hawaii @ home last week and almost managed to lose to Toledo 2 weeks prior.

All i'm saying is think about what I'm saying to anyone on the fence with this game before ultimately making your own choice. The oddsmakers are begging for WIS action here, not PSU, and if there's a team who has done nothing worth a shit, it's WIS.

WIS +6 @ home against anyone just has to blindly look too good to be true to anyone who has any experience....because it probably is.

stif- i was at the game last weekend and WIS is a good football team. As much as everyone shits on OSU, they were considered the best team far and away to start the season and had 19 guys returning. I find it hard to believe that all of a sudden they aren't good anymore (which i really find to be a joke). They are the class of the Big10 and have been for 3+ years talent wise, coaching wise and everything wise. They are trying to become the first team to win 4 straight outright titles in the Big10....now national games vs. SEC another story...but that's not what we're talking about. So a loss on the final drive to OSU is all of a sudden a bad loss?..........WIS has a very stout defense and a very good running game. They have one glaring weakness and that is their QB play. But they are a close to the vest type of team and play that way........that game was old school big 10 football. I was also impressed with WIS defensing the spread for a good part of the game.

My point is that PSU doesn't have the RB OSU has, they don't have the defense that OSU has and they don't have the QB that OSU has. My worry in this game is more the mindset of WIS here. Two gutwrenching losses and now you have to try and get up a 3rd straight week for a huge game, and B2B night games. Probably the worst stretch of games a Big10 team has ever had playing at Michigan, vs. OSU and then vs. PSU in B2B2B weeks. That is probably what will keep me from taking the points here. Plus not sure of the mindset right now.......Also that was a very tough environment in that stadium and it's one of the tougher road venues to play in for big10 schools, and that is pure fact. Also, Fresno State might be overrated but that was their super bowl and they ambush somebody every year. That was going to be a tough game no matter how bad Fresno is/was/might be. That was a quality win.

bottom line this game will either be an WIS Upset or a PSU blowout. I don't think the points will even matter. If WIS is focused and upset they beat PSU...if not PSU will walk away with probably a 31-13 type win.