NCAA Week 8 already Discussion

[FlyersFan]

almost half way through conference play..........season is moving quickly....


some lines that jumped out at me...

MIZZOU +7 at Texas......i think home field is almost a thing of the past the way these teams seem to walk into other venues and pick up wins. Maybe this is the oddsmaker asking for Mizzou money, but i think it's very difficult to play 2 great games back to back vs. quality opponents. And Mizzou tossed out a clunker last week and i think will bounce back this week. Texas will be high off that Oklahoma win and ripe for an upset, IMO. Mizzou lacks defense which worries me some but then again i certainly didn't see an OkState team that had only 5 INT's on the season all year picking off Daniel 3x.

MSU +3 1/2............house of horrors for Ohio State. OSU will let MSU hang around and quite frankly i think that the line play of OSU is trash this year. Tressel will coach not to lose and you can almost see that in how Pryor plays. Look at how cautious Pryor is now...everything OSU does reflects the sweater vest and his beyond conservative nature. The OSU play calling is atrocious, they never blitz on defense which is kind of funny seeing their front 4 can't get a pass rush on anyone. I think that MSU will get some good yardage on the ground here and I think the MSU ML is in play, only because OSU will let them hang around. It's kind of hard to blow someone out when all you do is run 1 play all day long and you have a QB that ends up with numbers every week like 10-14 for 80 yards. More a play against OSU.


AKR -3............still not sure why so many people had the love for EMU last week. I had Army and Army dominated that game with the exception of 1 quarter. AKR is a better football team and will bounce back this week, IMO. EMU victory over Bowling Green was the exception not the norm, IMO.

UAZ PK..............these are the only games stoops can win....over rated teams coming to town in October and November. He's done it every year and i think he'll do it again here.

UCLA -2..........strange line. STAN playing very good football and you wouldn't expect UCLA to be favored over anyone. I think this is one of those cases where the line is begging for STAN money which would put me on UCLA.


other interesting lines were WIS opening a 4 1/2 dog at Iowa and being bet down immediately to 3 1/2. Also big money coming in on UNR early laying another big spot vs. USU...opened 18 1/2 and i have seen 20 1/2 already. ILL opening around 16 over an awful IND team. I think they can get there and cover. Bad spot for them coming off B2B road games at PSU and crapchigan. PSU opened 24 and they have OSU on deck at OSU. Kind of a sandwich spot for them, but crapchigan is so bad that you almost can't take the points.

just some thoughts....like to hear some from others....

[Underdog88]

Illinois team over a likely play for me at first glance. Thining they will put up a ton of points after failing to find the endzone last week...

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Illinois team over a likely play for me at first glance. Thining they will put up a ton of points after failing to find the endzone last week...

yeah, i have a couple of those on my radar for this week and that was one of them...problem is the total will probably come pretty high like 34-36. But IU's D is awful...the fact that Iowa put 45 up on them is a complete joke.

[akatdrake]

Few noteworthy games:

(20) Pittsburgh -3.5 at Navy
(11) Missouri +7 at (1) Texas - agree with you Flyers on this one. Texas just impressive enough to get it done, but gonna be another high-scoring affair between those two.
(13) LSU -3.5 at South Carolina

Ranked road favorites...

[Underdog88]

I think I'll be on Zona in this spot too. Baylor+17 @ OK state seems inflated after the big win...


Questions I need answered

Does UNC deserve to be favored @ Virginia, which Cavs team shows up?

Does Nebraska have enough heart to cover the 5.5 vs a bad Iowa State team?

[akatdrake]

Good point Udog on the Nebraska game. NO chance given to them vs Tech and they lose in OT... heart is definitely part of it. Though can they see the light and just have Ganz throw throw throw?

[Drigger]

The one that stands out for me the most of Geo Tech +2 against Clemson. Geo Tech has beat the last two teams convincingly but then again, it it was against Duke, and I can't remember the other one of the top of my head. But they were pretty big wins, but it was at home. Clemson looks prett bad against Wake Forest... so really I don't know, maybe I'm wrong I like Geo Tech to win by quiet a bit.

[hodown]

Not a big fan of many lines as of yet, but here's some I see.

Ohio State -3 @ Mich State
I know PSU is on deck, but I just don't see OSU overlooking anyone here. And as much as Flyers is anti-OSU right now, I'm anti-MSU right now. If you can bottle up Ringer, I don't think Hoyer can beat OSU throuigh the air. Iowa did that to them, and I'd assume that OSU could/can do it as well. I think it stays low scoring and perhaps in the 30's, and I would feel uncomfortable laying the hook here, but I don't have to. As long as OSU keeps covering as road faves at -7 or less, I'm going to keep betting them. 8-0 ats in last 8.

LSU @ So. Carolina +3.5
SC playing some good ball lately, winning on the road at Ole Miss and at Kentucky in consecutive games. Any road SEC win is a good win imo. Just how good is LSU? They beat Auburn in the last seconds in an emotionally charged game, sleepwalk through MSU, then get blown out at Florida. The brand name LSU means something, but this game is sandwiched right in between Fla and Uga in a prime letdown spot, not to mention this SC team can play def. SC wins s/u

Va Tech @ Boston College -2.5
Ranked team going in as the dog usually spells trouble for the ranked team. BC is stout against the run and don't think VT can beat them through the air.

Am surprised to see Iowa open up so high, and I know Wazzu is bad, but does anyone really think USC goes in and covers 42? USC just doesn't cover lines like these

[hodown]

Vandy @ Georgia -15
Uga yielding 52 ypg or 2.1 ypc. Vandy only averaging 90 ypg of passing offense. Last time Vandy came to Athens they pulled off the upset. LSU is on deck for Uga but they cant afford to look ahead. Uga gets to iron out some kinks here and what could/should be a 20+ win.

Uconn @ Rutgers PK
Uconn is 5-1 and Rutgers is 1-5 and this line is a pk??? Something stinks which tells me Rutgers is the play.

Arkansas +10 @ Kentucky
Alot of points for Kentucky to cover with that offense. Arky moved the ball against Aub to a tune of 416 total yards of offense, 188 on the ground. I can't even stomach to write down Aub's offensive numbers in that game or I might puke all over my laptop. Anyway, this Arky team can hang.

Ga Tech -1 @ Clemson
Well this line is moving and moving in a hurry, from +2 to -1 since Bowden's firing. Hell, Clemson's offense might be better off without him. I've never seen a stupider-run offense in my life. Two of the best rb's in the nation, just run I and hand it off. GT coming off an uninspired performance against Gardner-Webb, but they have to be smelling blood here. A must win game here to keep pace with VT, and I dont know how anyone could lay down on Clemson with that mess.

[FlyersFan]

hodown- i hear you sort of on MSU. But OSU managed 2 FG's at home vs. a Purdue team that ranks dead last in the Big10 in YPC at 4.7 and dead last in total yards allowed at 400+. Not sure how much you've been actually watching OSU but Tressel has Pryor playing scared and their O-line is awful. Purdue was in their backfield all day long Saturday. Plus, MSU has been a thorn in the side of the buckeyes for years. And if you expect a low scoring game, then i don't see how you can lay points, especially anything over a FG. I hear you on the ATS road favorite angle, but keep in mind, most of those were with Troy Smith and a potent OSU offense. This team has been a road favorite exactly one time and barely came away with a win vs. what i now feel is a below average Wisconsin team. OSU has been shooting themselves in the foot game after game after game. They fumbled 2x on the final drive vs. WIS and were lucky to recover both of them. I will probably stay away from the game because i don't necessarily want MSU either and they were wildly outgained by Northworstern on Saturday.

But Tressel is almost as conservative as ive ever seen him and it's ruining the OSU offense. Not to mention the play calling is terrible. And OSU's front 7 have not been good against the run.

I do agree the Under is probably the best play here, especially if you can get something in the 40's.

I just can't lay 3 points based on what i've seen from OSU this year. When you can't move the ball at home vs. Ohio, Troy or Purdue (who is dead last in the big10 in D), how can one justify laying 3+ on the road is my contention. And you can't make a play based on "best case scenario". If you've seen X out of a team for 7 games, why is game 8 going to be any different, especially when you've seen nothing that would lead you to believe they are getting any better on offense. Plus to lay 3 points you have to feel that OSU wins by a TD or more or there is no use playing it. And i don't see how you can have a feeling that way based on this season's results. Plus MSU is a better team than Wisconsin. People are crapping on MSU because they think it's the same old MSU but it's not. They have a very good coach now in an ex Cincinnati Bearcats coach and ex-coordinator at OSU under Tressel in Dantonio, who put UC back on the map. Different mindset at MSU now.

I honestly think MSU has a very good chance to win SU. My feeling is that Sweater Vest will probably ESCAPE with a 3 point win. 20-17 buckeyes. But just like the game at Wisconsin that i sat through in person, he will keep the Spartans in the game with conservative don't make mistakes play calling. You can't do that with a guy like Pryor.

[dananderson32]

leans i like


nc st +11.5
byu -1.5
liked clemson before bowden got fired so ill pass
wash st +42 (if they can't cover this i give up)
washington +14
arkansas +11
ucla -2.5

[williwonka05]

Pitt looks like a play

coming off an open date and a revenge spot for them


That SFLORIDA win for them was HUGE .. If they would of won against Bowling Green in week 1, this line would be no where near where it is right now ..

and Navy beating Wake is keeping this number down also ... this line should be 6 or 7

Somehow Navy got a win over AF and only threw for 38 yards ..

That will not happen against Pitt, whose DEFENSIVE LINE is good .. That D Line really played well against SF

[williwonka05]

Historically FSU is not good when they play against NC ST in Raleigh


To be giving 11.5 .. WOW ... that looks big right now .. gotta look into this one.. is NC ST that bad

i know they got killed against SFLORIDA and against CLEMSON i think in week 1 ( not sure about that )

what do you guys think about THE NOLES giving 11.5

they looked good against Miami .. that was a good win .. !!!!

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by williwonka05

Historically FSU is not good when they play against NC ST in Raleigh


To be giving 11.5 .. WOW ... that looks big right now .. gotta look into this one.. is NC ST that bad

i know they got killed against SFLORIDA and against CLEMSON i think in week 1 ( not sure about that )

what do you guys think about THE NOLES giving 11.5

they looked good against Miami .. that was a good win .. !!!!

NC State has had their problems but they seem to be coming around, are they that bad?

11.5 seems like a good lean jmo

[williwonka05]

in week one
they looked great on defense

0-0 i do believe the score at that half

offense was horrible

they looked good on defense

had 6 sacks

FSU is young at key positions
RB and WR
Antone Smith and Greg Carr are good good players

Carr is a tough matchup

The QB though for FSU is young

i don't know .. FSU is good .. only one loss to Wake , they beat up on Colorado and scored 41 last week at Miami .. Antone Smith had four td's .. maybe they got their swagger back a lil bit, but that looks like a few too many

if that number comes down to 10 or 10.5 i may start thinking noles

but 11.5 ..