Week 10 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

Some interesting games on the board this week:

TEX -6 at TacoTech....for most likely a bid in the big12 championship game. Not sure TacoTech has the defense to hold down TEX enough to get a win. But then again, can TEX get up for a 4th big game in a row?? (Oklahoma, Mizzou, OkState in succession)

PUR -1 1/2 vs. michigan (what an awful game...teams have combined for 20 turnovers the past 3 weeks).......there were plenty of years when this game meant something.....interesting as one of these teams will end a very long bowl streak officially on Saturday...the other one is probably right behind them anyway. PUR looking for its first conference win of the season.

TCU -13 at UNLV.....TCU has Utah on deck for all the marbles. UNLV is 0-for the MWC but has 3 very winnable games after this and can still make a bowl game. Possible look ahead for TCU???

KSU +12 at KU......does KU really deserve to be a 12 point favorite at this point? Points looking good here and maybe the Over depending on where it comes. Tough to lay 12 in a rivalry game when you have a sieve of a pass D like KU.

FLA -6 vs. UGA...........not sure about that line. FLA has been winning but not really doing a lot in the process, IMO. Lots of punt returns, INT returns, fluky plays......not sure why they are a 6 point favorite. UGA in the hunt for a National title bid and an SEC championship bid. Fell flat already versus Alabama.........would like to see a total on this game.

USC -43 at UW..............Tryone, please report to the coaches office....and bring your playbook with you. 43 is a lot of points, but USC has been stingy on D and UW won't stop them. Anyone like UW +53 in a 10 point 3 teamer....

UTAH -7 1/2 at UNM.......Rocky long has a great record as a late season home dog.....possible look ahead for UTAH to theTCU game next weekend. Upset alert possibly.

NEB at OKLA -21............lots of points here in this one, IMO. Once great rivalry relegated to playing once few years thanks to today's big money first CFB atmosphere. NEB always finds a way to shoot themselves in the foot. I can see them hanging within the number here.

SCAR -6 vs. TENN............Spurrier v. Fullmer. Im sure nothing would make Spurrier more happy than to wax his ass again. I don't know how anyone can play TENN at this point in the season. They continue to be putrid on offense and shoot themselves in the foot with missed FG's, turnovers etc....



some interesting story lines this weekend. Thoughts?

[hodown]

Georgia vs Florida -5.5
I'm shocked that this line is over 3, and I wouldn't have been too surprised if UGA was actually the fave. Having said that, I still think UF is going to win regardless of the line, and this is pick-the-winner range. The high line makes me think the books want some UGA action.

Texas -6.5 @ Texas Tech
No way I bet on TT in a big game, just cant do it. I'm waiting for Texas to burn out myself, thinking @ KU in a few wks could be a letdown opportunity. They should handle Baylor and A&M at home. Pick the winner scenario, and I dont think TT has the horses on defense to make any stops, unlike UT.

NW @ Minnesota -5.5
No Sutton and perhaps no Bacher for NW

Kentucky @ Miss St -3
Kentucky still beat up, Miss St with a respectable defense only laying the HF

Clemson @ BC -5
Both Clemson qb's questionable, BC tough at home

Wisky +5.5 @ Michigan St
Hopefully this line goes higher, still looking to fade MSU when possible

Basically anything laying chalk I'm looking at this wknd! That probably explains my record

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by hodown

Georgia vs Florida -5.5
I'm shocked that this line is over 3, and I wouldn't have been too surprised if UGA was actually the fave. Having said that, I still think UF is going to win regardless of the line, and this is pick-the-winner range. The high line makes me think the books want some UGA action.

I had this one coming out -4, & had I caught it +6.5 I would have bought it up to 7 & played it. I don't think the whole "pick the winner" thing is as effective in NCAAF. For me +2.5 to -2.5 is pick the winner for me. 4.5 on is dangerous territory...


I think the Dawgs may be live here. While both are off big wins, Florida is off a huge blowout. I think that has something to do with the inflated line. In the past 3 meetings, Florida's only loss came off a big win @Kentucky last year. In the two UGA wins, Florida was coming in off road losses- a10 pt loss @Aub in 06, & a 4 pt loss @LSU in 05.

I also think that UGA has faced tougher competition. Georgia won on the road @SCar & @Ariz st before losing @ home to a great Bama team (Florida is lucky they don't play them this season). Then 3 straight SEC wins. Florida had Miami at home but other than LSU, have faced Ten, Ark & Kentucky. And they lost to Ole Miss. Still looking into this matchup....

[Underdog88]

A couple games jumped off the page at me....


SD st +3 and ML over Wyoming- Wyoming as a fave? That must be faded. Only reason they are faves is because they are at home facing a 1 win team. At least SD St can score- SDst is averaging 19.1 ppg, while Wyoming is lighting up the scoreboard with a blazing 8.8 ppg average. That alone is enough for me. Congrats on Wyoming for their two wins, a 1 pt win vs 2 win Ohio, & a 16-13 win vs ND st where they were outgained but got 4 turnovers. Likely the only 2 they see this season. They couldn't cover a spread if the game was fixed lol.


Cuse+14- IMO an inflated line thanks to a couple factors. The Cards beating SFla @ home is the biggest reason. Had they lost, this would be a 9.5 or so. Another may be the 45-13 USF blowout at home vs Cuse, which I'm sure most will use as a comparison here. Big difference is that this game is @Cuse. Cuse has had a week off to think about that pounding, which the two games previous they had played decent. @ WV they played tough, losing 17-6. They also lost @ home to Pitt by 10 pts. Louisville has played 1 road game this year, beating Memphis by 7 pts. In fact, they have just 2 wins of 10 or more pts this season- vs Middle Tenn St & Tenn Tech. I think Cuse hangs here.


I know, I know, I'm polishing turds here

[dananderson32]

really like that s car -6 line think they win that game by 14+


and damn it FF stop calling texas tech......taco tech ..........Q-unit might go find your ass in socal and go postal on you

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by dananderson32

and damn it FF stop calling texas tech......taco tech

Really, FF is a dick. Always tring to ruffle people's feathers- I think a 3 day ban is in order




Just had a long writeup that my computer ate. Basically said I'm done trying to fade TTech, & I think that they may have a situational edge. Also that Texas could easily win by 7. I think the over could be the better option. The 18 pts allowed stat for Texas is so skewed, as they hadn't faced a viable offense until Okla. Since then 45-35 vs. Okla (over), 56-31 vs Missouri (over), & 28-24 vs Ok st(under). OK st is predominantly a rushing team, so more clock was chewed up. had there been about 2 more minutes in that game, things could have been different. I thinkTTech isas good as they have ever been, & if they have protection, will put up pts. IMO the total comes out @74.5 or so. Could be higher since the last 3 TTech games were set @70, 67 & 62 have sailed over the total. TTech is averaging 48 ppg/21 pa. I think I'll be on the over & TTech team over, but we'll see.

[Underdog88]

I tend to agree with the Gamecocks


Oregon State- just played this one & bought it to -13-120. Was late on it but honestly don't think it matters. They have played awesome at home, & Az st is just terrible offensively. IMO the Beavers pour it on @ home. Will also be on them 1sth, probably large if I can get -6.5.


Also considering the Bearcats as a home dog.

[FlyersFan]

i would be careful on that SDSU game Udog.....SDSU is the worst rush defense in the country and all WYO can do is run the ball. Also, SDSU never plays well at Wyoming, especially if weather is an issue.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Really, FF is a dick. Always tring to ruffle people's feathers- I think a 3 day ban is in order


.

you're just pissed i called you out for not answering your doorbell when dananderson came over to your house to watch football with you and brought wings with him and it was snowing outside and you left him standing on your porch and he caught a cold and couldn't shovel his driveways the next day and got all kinds of customer complaints...........man who's the dick here....

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

you're just pissed i called you out for not answering your doorbell when dananderson came over to your house to watch football with you and brought wings with him and it was snowing outside and you left him standing on your porch and he caught a cold and couldn't shovel his driveways the next day and got all kinds of customer complaints...........man who's the dick here....

lol

I think youre confusing UD's house with HD's house when dan showed up wearing a Dukakis T-shirt and Obama Daisy Dukes

[hodown]

Iowa/ Illinois total set at 50, thats about 5 points too high imo. Iowa coming off a bye week and running a contain defense shouldnt give up more than 21. And that's not a homer play