Week 1 Discussion Thread

[FlyersFan]

dang...can't believe it's already CFB season.

here are the current lines

College Football Betting, Handicapping Stats, Live NCAA Football Odds

wanted to get some talk going on the first couple of weeks and some thoughts. lot of high spreads in week 1 as well as some really intriguing games (like Ohio State/Navy...:laughing).

One angle i personally like to take a look at are teams breaking in new QB's versus teams that have a lot coming back. Couple of games jumped out at me. UGA @OKST and CMU @ UAZ. OKST might be one of the best offenses in the country and i think it's asking a lot for a new QB to get a big road start like this. Favor the pokes in this one. I also like CMU grabbing almost 14 at UAZ who i think is going to struggle early on in the season on offense. I think the UAZ D should be much better than the CMU D, but i don't know if UAZ can cover DD's here.

Also really am leaning hard to NCST this year. I think they may be vastly improved and i am never sold on SCAR to put anything on the board points wise.

I also would have to lean to NAVY in the game grabbing 23 points from OSU. (a) OSU is never very good in these games, (b) they have USC coming to CBUS next week, (c) I doubt tressel is going to run the score up on Navy and (d) OSU is replacing a starting RB, 2 starting WR's and quite a few guys in the defensive back 7.

Haven't looked at totals yet.


Also wanted to toss this out. I see very few people besides Udog and a couple others who post totals in CFB. CFB totals are some of the best plays IMO and the lines can be off sometimes 4-6 points. Everyone spends so much time trying to pick the spread that often times, the total is the better play by far. I would encourage people to look at totals this year in CFB....especially from conferences like the MAC, WAC, SunBelt etc......

Anyhow, good luck to everyone this year. Lets get some chatter going on these early games.

[irishmike]

I'm really liking Reno +14 @ ND!!!

I think this game might be similar to the SDST home opener from last season, except Nevada is really good. They have a great QB, Wolfpack could go up and down the field on the irish d. The front seven for ND is average, and with a none existent running game, Clausen will throw 50+ passes.
Nevada gives up a lot of passing yards, but teams are usually playing catchup, and ND might be in that situation!
Also, Notre Dame Stadium doesn't scare any opponent(s) these days.
Team with the ball last wins!!!
Reno 41
Irish 38
OVER 61

good luck to all!
Go Bucks!

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by irishmike

I'm really liking Reno +14 @ ND!!!

I think this game might be similar to the SDST home opener from last season, except Nevada is really good. They have a great QB, Wolfpack could go up and down the field on the irish d. The front seven for ND is average, and with a none existent running game, Clausen will throw 50+ passes.
Nevada gives up a lot of passing yards, but teams are usually playing catchup, and ND might be in that situation!
Also, Notre Dame Stadium doesn't scare any opponent(s) these days.
Team with the ball last wins!!!
Reno 41
Irish 38
OVER 61

good luck to all!
Go Bucks!

saw Nevada in person last year, when we went to Reno to see them play Tech. That QB is something else, almost uncoverable, a freaking gazelle.

their D was solid too, I think (not sure) their starting RB went down so half their dynamic backfield really put a damper on their season, but I look for Nevada to make some noise this year if everyone stays healthy.

the cog to that wheel is that QB, Kaepernick

I like Nevada but Notre Dame is supposedly stronger this year, so I'll have to take a closer look but I'm always leery of betting on or against ND, they find ways to screw me lubeless lol

good to see you around FF, setting up a league this year?

(they have new option Im sure you already seen to lock up players in waivers from sun-tues, and its automatic so we don't have to rely on the honor system lol)

count me in if you are.

[FlyersFan]

Q- haven't thought about fantasy yet. I will try and get that put together from last year's league and send it out later in the week.

I am kind of surprised on a side note, that there isn't a little more discussion on CFB. The season starts a week from tomorrow.

[logansq]

Hey IrishMike,
Any of those Indiana boys gonna play for Charlie in the opener???

[Underdog88]

Without looking too deeply into games, NCSt, Bama and Illinois jump off the page. Missed favorable numbers with Illinois and Bama, which i never like. In all honesty I think Bama wins by 10+, and it could very well be a blowout. The Tide D is exponentially better than Vtech's boring ass offense. Thinking about NCST/Illinois parlay @ better than even money.


Not too sure I believe in Baylor. I don't see why this line is low but there has to be a reason right? Wake looks like either an easy play or a sucker bet. Baylor with 2 wins away from home in the last 3 seasons. Would like some opinions if anyone has them....



Some possible totals plays-


Illinois team total over- Juice in a double revenge situation, vs a missou D that he can exploit. Though they lost last season, juice threw for 451 5tds 2ints. Looks like it'll be about 33.5. I would love for it to stay under 34, as I have a tough time believing Illinois won't be looking to pour it on should they be leading late. If there's a bigger statement game on week one, I just don't see it. As I stated before, I like Illy ats as well, but the general lack of defense makes me gravitate more towards the total. This one's a near definite.... I'm predicting Juice throws 4 tds.

UGA/OK ST o61- On paper it seems as if UGA's best option would be to slow things down and play ball control. I don't think that will really be a viable option once the Cowboys start getting in the endzone. It's my thinking that if OKst wins, it will be because they scored a ****ton of points. Look @ UGA's losses from last season...

Akron tt under. I think PSU rolls easily and dominates TOP. have a tough time seeing Akron with over 10 pts. I do favor tt overs as one lucky play could destroy the wager on low tt unders. I still have to say this play looks enticing.


WMich/Mich o56- Can the Wolverines even win an opener anymore? If they do, they will likely put up 35+. WMich's defense is less than stellar. I have my concerns because rich rod wants all qbs to touch the ball in the opener, so I have to look a bit deeper. I think WMich should be able to respond here, so I do have to lean over. Where is Larry I would like to hear what he thinks about Michigan this season. Been reading reports of how the slot wr Grady could be a standout this season....

[Badger]

U-Dog ...

I saw that Wake-Baylor spread too, and immediately thought "what's the catch?" There's no way Wake should be only a 2-point fave at home. I know Baylor has a good senior QB and a stud punter (Ray Guy Award candidate), but what???? Doesn't make sense to me either.

FlyersFan ...

LeFeveour (sp?) and CMU are gonna score MAJOR points this year. But they have defense issues, so Arizona should be able to pound it on them too. I really like the over in that game, 54 is nothing.

And since I live in Big Ten country, two more jumped off the page at me:

Minnesota -6.5/-7 at Syracuse
Come on, really? Cuse is playing Duke's BACKUP point guard as their QB now, so how good can they really be on offense, seriously! No way Cuse keeps it that close. Although, this smells like a trap, not as big of one as the Wake spread, but there is some stench here.

No. Illinois at Wisconsin -16.5
'Sconie is way overrated in this one. They are starting last year's third-string QB because the other two are really bad. The O-line is banged up and missing three starters due to injury (although they may be back this week ... haven't practiced at all in camp). The defense has 5-6 new starters. The only thing I fear is a late backdoor cover by the Badgers once the N.Ill. starters wear down. Mark it down right now, Beilima will be gone at the end of the year.

[irishmike]

Logan2x,

Looks like they are buried in the depth chart!!! Both 4th string.
The soph wr is already passed by a true frosh, but the kid that plays TE might see some action this season, special teams???!!!

Don't know who said it, but so true: put another teams jerseys on the ND kids, and the Irish are ranked #37!!!

good luck this season
Week 1, liking
Reno +14
Bucks -23
PU -11
Stanford -16
Ball St. -17

[Daws1089]

I like Alabama. Their size will be a huge issue for VT upfront. Tech likes small,quick d-linemen, and bama likes big bruisers on offense. VT also lost their starting RB for the season. Evans is his name. I agree with U-dog that Bama wins this by 10+ maybe even 20. I forget how many years ago it ws, but VT opened the season down at LSU who was similar to Bama in the sense that they are big and athletic and it is just too much for VT to handle any of these good SEC teams.

[BoilerBacker]

FF:

I will most likely be on CMU. Already have plays on WMU and BG.

I think Juice blows. He has not improved at all since his first year. I will take the TD with Mizz.

I am also probably going to play Ga. OSU did not beat anyone that was very good (Mizzou was best win) last year and was rolled by Oregon's running game in the bowl game. They are one of those teams that people are looking to be good (along with Mississippi). More often than not, the high hopes dont come through. (I am a pro at this when it comes to my school, Purdue, which usually tanks when it comes to high hopes...). I will take 6 pts vs. an unproven defense of OSU.

[hodown]

In a pick the winner situation, I think Bama -6.5 or -7 is the best play on the board for Week 1. VT is gonna have a hell of a time moving the ball in that one imo and the under might be in play as well

[hodown]

Anyone have any status updates on Jones and Ingram for Bama?

[bigbag12]

On OSU, they have lost several keys players this week , just FYI.

Starting TE quit the team after a restraining order was issued against him ( Jamal mosley)

senior defensive back Perrish Cox was arrested last week by the Stillwater (Okla.) Police Department on charges of driving with a suspended license. Gundy has not said yet if he is suspended, but if he is it is the only returning starter they have in the secondary.

The starting MLB Lemmon blew out his ACL and is gone for the year.

Just in case no one knew.

[snowman]

i took a shot with v tech +7.5 -120 looks like alabama might have problems this week with possible suspensions and the flu

[hodown]

Jones and Ingram are probable