***The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Yesterday (10-3) +15.5 Units
Overall Record (41-36) +14 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-0) +16 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-4) +1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-16) -11.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (19-16) +1.4 Units

Yesterday was a great day. One tough loss in the Indiana game, but who can complain when you hit all 4 big plays and go 10-3. Check out the NFL thread shortly and GL!!!


****4 Unit Picks****
Arizona State +6.5 Win +4 Units
Oregon +3 Win +4 Units

***3 Unit Picks***
Rutgers +7 Win +3 Units
Duke +7 Win +3 Units

**2 Unit Picks**
Indiana +17 Loss -2.2 Units
Wake Forest +6.5 Win 2 Units
Vandy +11.5 Loss -2.2 Units

*1 Unit Picks*
NC State +10 Win 1 Unit
Baylor +13 Win 1 Unit
UCLA +9 Win 1 Unit
Northwestern +17 Loss -1.1 Units
Kansas State +27.5 Win 1 Unit
Washington State +27.5 Win 1 Unit

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (41-36) +14 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-0) +16 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-4) +1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-16) -11.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (19-16) +1.4 Units

Last week was a great week. I look to keep the momentum going with a solid 2 Unit Pick on ECU tonight. I'm slightly worried about the revenge angle on this game, but I think home field advantage will win out in the end. My system says there is an extremely high probability ECU covers and a slight probability that they win outright. Look for Pinkney to be the difference maker tonight, not Tryod Taylor. This weekends picks will be up sometime soon. I am taking one last look at the card tonight. GL and enjoy!!

**2 Unit Pick**
ECU +13

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Night (0-0-1) -.2 Units
Overall Record (41-36-1) +13.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-0) +16 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-4) +1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-16-1) -11.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (19-16) +1.4 Units

Last night was a missed opportunity with ECU having some key turnovers and crucial points in the game. Tonight's game is scary at first sight, but I actually have this game capped as LA Tech being a single digit underdog. That gives us a lot of room to work with when you look at this spread. GL and enjoy!!

**2 Unit Pick**
LA Tech +21

[sdyarnell]

how do you put your stats into the computer? and if its like a cvs file or something, where do you get it from?

also, do you write it in c++?

i have a ton of questions, and would like an outside way to contact you if you are ok with that.

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Night (1-0) +2 Units
Overall Record (42-36-1) +15.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-0) +16 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-4) +1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (13-16-1) -9.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (19-16) +1.4 Units

My system has been on fire the last 2 weeks. Today should be no different. There are a lot of games on today's card, including two 4 Unit Picks. One of the 4 Unit Picks is Arizona State against USC. I have this game capped at Arizona State -2. This may come as a shock to some, but this USC team has spent the whole season overhyped and overated. Now the public is all over USC, because "USC never loses two games in a row." Says who? So what if they don't lose. Arizona State's defense, which allows just 2.56 YPR and 296 Total Yards per Game should keep this game within the number. Look for Danny Sullivan to have a big game at home tonight, as Arizona State looks to shock the country. Kansas State is my other 4 Unit Pick. I have this game capped at Kansas State -6. Home field advantage should account for about 7 to 8 points in this game. GL and enjoy today's card!!!

****4 Unit Picks****
Kansas State +2.5
Arizona State +10

***3 Unit Picks***
Northwestern +15
Baylor +14
Nebraska +5

**2 Unit Picks**
Indiana +11.5
Viginia +14
Navy +12.5
Duke +10
Wake Forest +14.5
Stanford +7

*1 Unit Picks*
Western Michigan +20.5
Michigan -6.5
NC State -6.5
Vandy +35

[JMED2]

GL to you this Weekend!!!

JMED2

[JMED2]

I got smoked picking Duke and the Virginia Wet Paper Bags too!!!

My picks were absolutely terrible this weekend!

Good bye Cruel World!!!

I had Navy, but needed more Baylor, NWU and Stanford type picks for sure.

Alot of upsets, injuries out there for sure too.

Oh well, there's always next week; right?

JMED2

[rollin in it]

Whatever your model is, keep it up. I think I am going to have to piggyback you next weekend looking at your last couple weeks.

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Saturday (11-4) +20.4 Units
Overall Record (53-40-1) +36.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (6-0) +24 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-4) +10.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (17-18-1) -5.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (21-18) +1.2 Units

Last week was good to us. We picked up an additional 20.4 Units with a weekly record of 12 wins, 4 losses, and 1 push. I don't expect every week to go this well, but I definitely will not complain. The week night lines are very tight this week. I don't expect to have any plays until Saturday, but that is subject to change if something pops up on my radar. Looking to Saturday, the lines are also very accurate. I would be suprised if I have more than 10 plays for Saturday. I will be back tomorrow with Saturday's picks. Have a great day and GL to those that play tonights game!!

SDyarnell- I collect my stats from various resources. Unfortunately, I'm not willing to disclose the what and how of my system. GL this weekend!

[sdyarnell]

I wouldnt disclose the method either, esp with the success you have going on right now.

The stats arent exactly anything that need to be kept a secret though, right?

See, I am a Computer Engineering major at Univ of Alabama, and I want to write my own computer model also. I just cant find an efficient way to read in the stats. If you are getting yours from someone/some place in a simple form (txt, cvs, blah blah blah), then I would REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY appreciate you hooking me up with that.

Im not asking how yours works, I know that is confidential.

:)

[JMED2]

Hey guy,

I got a question. I use models too.

Do you think that "ALL" models have that built in Flaw?

I mean, at the end of the day, we are using statistics and
pricing models (the spread) on a game; ie: a preceived value on
something that has no intrinsict value until the actual
outcome is known.

I guess, what I mean is, a model might be totally awesome
for a 2-4 week run, then totally get NUKED. But then,
recover nicely the very next week.

Any thought?

GL this weekend!!!

JMED2

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Saturday (11-4) +20.4 Units
Overall Record (53-40-1) +36.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (6-0) +24 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-4) +10.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (17-18-1) -5.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (21-18) +1.2 Units

Below are Saturday's picks. As the season progresses, the lines are getting tighter. I only have one 4 Unit pick and one 3 Unit pick. Saturday's card is solid, and I hope we can put together another big weekend. My 4 Unit Pick is UNC +3. I have this game capped at UNC -3. The key to this game will be UNC's stellar defense. They should be able to shut down or minimize Miami's ground game allowing just 2.69 YPR this season. Once they shut down the run, they will put pressure on the QB, which is something Miami has struggeld with all season. Miami has allowed 26 sacks this season, while UNC's defense has racked up 25 sacks this season. Those numbers spell trouble for Harris in the pocket. This should be a good game, but UNC should pull off the "upset" at home. JMed, I have some thoughts on your post, but I am running short on time right now. I will reply tomorrow when I get a chance. GL and enjoy the games!!

****4 Unit Picks****
UNC +3

***3 Unit Picks***
Baylor +23.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Duke +13
NC State +8
Maryland +18.5
South Carolina +17.5
Arizona State +17.5
Washington +13.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Indiana +24.5
Northwestern +5
Kansas State +1
Iowa +16.5
Fresno State +7.5
Utah +20

[JMED2]

GL

JMED2

[JMED2]

****4 Unit Picks****
UNC +3..................WIN, nice 4 unit pick

***3 Unit Picks***
Baylor +23.5............loss

**2 Unit Picks**
Duke +13................loss
NC State +8.............LOSS, my system had same pick
Maryland +18.5..........loss
South Carolina +17.5....Win
Arizona State +17.5.....loss, my system had same pick
Washington +13.5........loss, my system has same pick

*1 Unit Picks*
Indiana +24.5...........WIN, good pick
Northwestern +5.........WIN, was one of my system LOCK picks
Kansas State +1.........loss
Iowa +16.5..............WIN, good call!
Fresno State +7.5.......loss
Utah +20................loss, was also one of my Picks.

5-9....looks like my Parlay Card too!!!

So like I was saying, I think all systems have
their built in Flaw or Faults; I'm just trying
to figure out what the built-in Fault Tolerance
should be.

Maybe some kind of advanced calculus Logistic Regression
solution or square line-movement adjustment.

I have no idea what the solution is, but I keep getting
nailed just like you; and I know this problem has a
built in solution.

The Key is just finding it.

Best to ya.

JMED2

PS: I seem to do alot better when making focused single play
picks instead of huge Parlay/mass pick bets; I gotta admit.

[sdyarnell]

ok, so now i realize that me asking you where you got your stats from is kind of a dumb question since the actually STATS do not have an input in your model, only scores and records.

Anyway, I have hit with your last 3 4 unit picks, so keep it up man. You have definitely figured something out.