NEBRASKA HUSKERS at MISSOURI TIGERS

[anjac]

NEBRASKA HUSKERS at MISSOURI TIGERS

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Nebraska will take the field tonight at Columbia Missouri to face the unbeaten Missouri Tigers, in a game that is very important to both squads and could have an impact on the Big 12 North championship.
Missouri has not lost a home game to a Big 12 North opponent since 2004(9 straight victories). The Tigers have not hosted a Thurs night Prime Time game since 1992 when they lost a tight game,6 to 0, to the Colorado Buffalos(then #9 in the country) on a very rainy and nasty muddy field. Tonight the weather forecast is "for rain", but it could change. If you are a believer that things do repeat themselves, then consider the fact that the game was also held on Oct 8th, just like tonight. A win tonight for Missouri would be the first 3 game win stretch that the Tigers have recorded vs Nebraska since the 1960's. Nebraska won 26 consecutive times over Missouri from 1979 to 2002. It is said that the Missouri players are estatic that they have been installed as a 3' point dog. Missouri has also won the Big 12 North the last 2 seasons. To pick a winner in this game, one would have to attend Merlin's handicapping 101 class, but lets take a look at it and see what we can find.
Nebraska has had a somewhat soft schedule up until now with a week one easy victory over Fla Int 49-3, a 38-9 victory over Ark St in week two, and laugher blow out 55-0 vs La Lafayette in week four, with all three games played in Lincoln. In week three they faced a very good Virginia Tech team in Blacksburg, where they lost 16-15. That game is the game I would like to discuss.
On the very first KO of the game by Nebraska, Dyrell Roberts(remember that name) returned the ball to the Neb 24 yard line for a 76 yard scamper. Neb held the best they could, but eventually Ryan Williams scored on a 1 yd TD run making the score 7-0 Tech.
Nebraska answered back with three consecutive FGs by Alex Henery, 40, 27 and 19 yds in that order. Score now was Neb 9-Va T 7.
Then the Hokies Matt Waldron kicked a 39 yd FG to make the score Va T 10-Neb 9.
The Cornhuskers answered with two FGs by Henery; both 38 yarders. That made the score Neb 15-Va T 10 with 4.5 minutes on the clock.
After an unsuccessful 8 play drive by Va Tech, and a 3 and out by Neb and a good punt to the Va Tech 12 yd line, Tech now had the ball on the 12, with 1:51 remaining in the game. You would think the game was in the bag for the Huskers, with their stout defense, and Tech having a mile to go.
Not so! On the third play of the Tech possession, QB Taylor passed to Coale for an 81 yd gainer.
After a Neb sack of Taylor, and an incomplete pass by Taylor, the "never say die" QB found "guess who", (yes it was Dyrell Roberts) for an 11 yd TD, with a mere :33 sec left on a stingy clock. So, the bottom line is that Tech stole the game with the 81 yd pass play, and the HUskers should be 4-0 just like Missouri. In the game Neb led in 1st downs 18-11, total yds 343-278 and rushing yds 207-86. But due to the 81 yd pass play, Tech led in passing yds 192-136. RB Roy Helu gained 169 yds on 28 carries for an avg carry of 6. Niles Paul returned a Va Tech punt for 55 yds which led to one of Husker's field goals.
In the last four games Nebraska has scored in 15 of the available 16 quarters, while allowing opponents to score in only 6. The Huskers are averaging 39.3 pts/game, 440 total yds/game and have a 47.1 third down %. On defense the Huskers are allowing 7 pts/game, 283 total yds/game, have allowed the opponent 3.1 yds/carry rushing and 50.4 % pass completions. Zac Lee has a 155.2 QB ratingand 7 TDs and 3 INTs. RB Roy Helu has compiled 116 rush yds/game and a 6.4 yds/carry average.

Missouri has had a little more difficult schedule, but has registered 4 straight wins in the process. They won 37-9 at Illinois, a mid range Big 10 team, won 27-20 over a "pesky" Bowling Green team at home, won a blow out vs Furman at home 52-12, and in their only true test, survived over Nevada 31-21 in Nevada. At Nevada it was a tie for 1st downs at 23, Mo. led 492 to 364 in total yds and 414 to 146 in passing yds. But they failed dismally 78-218 in rushing yds. For me that is a point of concern, due to the fact that Nebraska's Helu is averaging 116 yds/game and a 6.4 yds/carry average.
Missouri is averaging 36.8 pts/game and 453 yds/game with a 44.8 third down %. The defense is allowing a Scrooge type 15.5 pts/game and 351.8 yds/game while allowing the enemy a 61.2 pass comp %. QB Blaine Gabbert has an outstandind 168.6 QB rating(a few points higher than Zac Lee), has thrown 11 TDs and has not had an INT(none, notta,ziltch). RB Derrick Washington is averaging 75.2 yds/game rushing on a 4.2 yds/carry basis. Two really decent WRs, Denario Alexander and Jared Perry are both playing well. Alexander averages 101 yds/game with a per catch figure of 13.9. Perry is averaging 95.2 yds/game and boasts 15.2 yds/catch.

This game is one bugger to cap. Taking into consideration that Nebraska is vulnerable to the long gainer, and has not won at Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri since 2001 and were Blown out in Lincoln in 2008, 52-17 as a 10 pt dog.......I like Missouri. The one thing that bothers me is the best def lineman in the Big 12 (North or South) Nebraska's NT Ndamukong Suh(hope I spelled it correctly). He will be lining up in the trenches, often against Missouri's most experienced off lineman Kurtis Gregory. If he can put pressure on Blaine Gabbert, forcing Missouri to run the ball, this will be a long evening for the Tigers.
Another true point of concern is that Nebraska is primarily a rushing team, sending Roy Helu right up the gut between the tackles and wearing the opponent out in the process. He will be trying to run through DTs Dominique Hamilton and Terrell Resonno, who haven't shown that they have the ability to stop the run so far this year. If that takes place and they can't stop Helu, it will once again be a long evening in the rain for Missouri.

I hope I have provided you with enough insite to make a wise choice.




Good luck in any choice you make(the over/under is around 52)


"Everybody plays the fool sometimes....there's no exception to the rule".

[hodown]

nice writeup, however...

SOS

Mizzou 111
Nebraska 84

[Stifler's Mom]

Great info.

But 2 things. First of all, Illinois sucks ass. They are probably the worst team in the B10, and the entire B10 is nothing to get excited about this year, imho.

Also, I believe that 31-21 was a game where UNR had about 7 turnovers, or otherwise would have handled MIZZOU.

Mizzou is a big farce at #24 if you ask me.

Question is how good is NEB? Other than VT, they really haven't played anyone at all.

Normally these Thurs night dogs are $$$, but to be honest with ya, I don't like this one at all. Line opened NEB -2.5 and quickly shot to NEB -3.5 with public about split on the game and has remained there all week.

Too many public Joes catching on to this "Thursday night dog" thing. Might see a few faves roll this year on Thurs night, and this might just be one of em.

Just my 2 cents.

Then again, what do I know....

[MiamiSportsFan]

I like Mizzou at home, tough place to play.

Really, neither team has proven anything with their early schedule. IF anything, Nebraska proved itself in a close loss to VT in a game it should have won. I agree Illinois really isn't a BIG win, more of a "name" win.

I teased the game, Mizzou getting 10, and over 44.5 - but straight up I think it's a tough pick.

[USFMD82]

Im taking Neb +2.5 and Under 56 (6pt Teaser because I dont know any better)

I was about to click on the MIZZ + 9.5 but I got an odd feeling, with the rain, there, I feel safe wiht my under, and it looks like NEB has a better run game then Mizz looking at the stats im reading.. BOL!

[BlackCat]

NEB +4

[FlyersFan]

i have to say stiff made some good points. i don't think anyone really knows how good Mizzou is. UNR fumbled on the Mizzou 1 yard line going in for the lead in the early 4th quarter i believe it was and that changed that game completely. Juice Newton and her friends so suck complete ass.

and don't overlook the fact that NEB is in first place at 3-0 in the sunbelt....

once again, good thing for the 12th ncaa game....