Georgia Tech v. UVA

[Jackets_Fan]

Before I post my reasons why I like GT this week, can anyone explain to me, without using historical results prior to the last two years, why the line is only GT -4? or why I shouldn't play GT?

I don't care that we haven't won in Charlottesville since 1990 - do you really think GT's 1994 or UVA's 2000 team have any bearing on this game whatsoever?

I realize lines that are too good to be true are often just that, but sometimes the books are just priced incorrectly.

[Woody12]

I don't know why really. I was going to say it was a sandwich game off their big win vs. V Tech last week, and another big game after this one, but they have Vandy on deck.

Maybe a bit of a let down spot, but 4 seems a little low to me too.

Virginia has won 3 in a row too.

But GT has the revenge factor from last year's game where they won at GT.

All signs point to GT, but I really hate fishy lines like this.

Kind of like Missy State last week laying 4 at Middle Tenny. Looked to easy to take Missy State but they cashed easily.

[Jackets_Fan]

Coach Johnson quote (I like it...):

“I don’t think we’ll have a problem staying focused. We did enough things poorly in that game Saturday night that was pointed out to them on film. We can play better and we need to. We strive to get better every week and if we have to ground them the week we’re getting ready to play, then they’re not very smart. A year ago, we were 6-1 and a two-touchdown favorite against the same team [Virginia] and they came in here and smacked us in the mouth. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Virginia will come to play; they sit atop the division standings. We know where we’re at; our backs are against the wall.”

[jd08]

Don't let the 3 wins in a row fool you. This Virginia team is not good. They got blasted by William and Mary in their home opener and beaten handily by TCU before losing their third in a row to Southern Miss.

Looking at their 3 wins so far

UNC: completely inept offensive team, offense is ranked 4th worst in 1A.

Indiana: no explanation needed

Maryland: has lost to middle tennessee, an overrated cal team by 40, and needed overtime to beat James Madison (lol).

I think GT is a solid team with a good coaching staff that will easily outsmart Al Groh in this one. Jackets by 10.

[Jackets_Fan]

UVA has played some great defense lately, but look who they have played (national rank of yds per game/pts per game):

IU - 67/92
UNC - 115/62
Maryland - 89/95

Not exactly offensive juggernauts. GT on the other hand is ranked 31/24.

GT's defense has been terrible lately, but look who they have played:

VT 59/21
FSU 53/40
UM 56/49
Miss St. 53/61

Not great offensive teams, but better competition relative to UVA.

GT's struggles on defense have primarily been in the passing game. The team has had trouble getting pressure on opposing QB's, but really turned it around last week against VT. Regardless, I'm just not sure if UVA can take advantage of this weakness. UVA is only averaging 192 yds/game (83rd nationally).

UVA's defense has only faced one solid rushing attack in TCU (ranked 11th - GT is ranked 2nd) and TCU racked up 203 rushing yards that game.

I think this spread is so fishy because people are looking at the intangibles of this game more than the stats:
- UVA hasn't lost in October since the 1800's.
- GT hasn't won in Charlottesville since 1990.
- You could not script a more perfect let down game for GT.
- UVA won last year's game as 14 pt dogs.

All of those are true and concern me, but the one intangible that trumps all others is Coach Paul Johnson. Every interview he's given this week has discussed GT's losing streak in Charlottesville. CPJ has mentioned numerous times last year's melt down in the UVA game. And most importantly, CPJ has stressed over and over that this is a playoff game. If GT losses, we are out of the BCS, out of the ACC CG. There is no room for error, and every player knows this. CPJ will have the boys ready to go, and we'll avoid the letdown.

GT -5

GT games YTD: 1-1 posted plays (3-3 overall)