Kickoff Rules Change

[FlyersFan]

Curious what people's thoughts are on totals this year in CFB and what the books will do early on to the totals to reflect the fact that kickoffs are now from the 30 instead of the 35. I read one article that suggested returns will go from 25 percent of the time to 75 percent of the time and that the average FPG could be 10 yards+. That combined with the fact that the stupid clock rule was repealed should "on paper" have game scores higher than last year. If teams are starting at their own 34 instead of the 20, that is a huge difference....especially for teams with good FG kickers. Now you only have to move 35 yards to get in scoring range as opposed to 50 yards.

This also puts a greater value on teams with good coverage or especially return games. This is coming a year too late for OSU. Can you imagine Ted GinnJr. with more open space and the opportunity to return a kick 2 or 3 times as many times. Even in handicapping a Side in a game, i think you really have to look at the return game as a significant factor. We always look at YPRush, total yards etc...but very rarely do you look at return and coverage games. I will certainly be looking at where teams stack up in YPReturn and the coverage game.......makes things interesting this year.

I haven't seen a "PPG" suggested adjustment for either (a) no more running clock and (b) better field position. Anyone have any thoughts? Will be interesting to see what vegas does with totals and if we see 3-4 point higher totals this year or even more.

[BoilerBacker]

I don't think this rule change will matter much at all. Maybe another 10% of kicks will be returned (from the current 75% (80+% in Big Ten)).... and my guess is the average kick return yardage will still be the same. So on average the field position will change by 5 yds. I think poor kickoff coverage teams will squib more often and maybe even intentionally kick it OB and put the ball on the 35.

The clock issue is different.....definitely more points due to that this year. Up to 10 or so more plays per game.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

I don't think this rule change will matter much at all. Maybe another 10% of kicks will be returned (from the current 75% (80+% in Big Ten)).... and my guess is the average kick return yardage will still be the same. So on average the field position will change by 5 yds. I think poor kickoff coverage teams will squib more often and maybe even intentionally kick it OB and put the ball on the 35.

The clock issue is different.....definitely more points due to that this year. Up to 10 or so more plays per game.

At least one coach suggested three-times as many kickoffs will be returned than were last season, and there is no question that better field position enhances scoring opportunities.

"I asked coach (Tony) Ball, our kick return coach, about how many kicks were we returning percentage-wise last year," Georgia coach Mark Richt said. "He said we only really returned about 25 percent of the kicks. Now, we predict we'll be returning 75 to 90 percent of the kicks. That's going to be at least two, maybe three times as many kicks we're returning this year than we did a year ago.

"You think if you move the ball back 5 yards, you're probably going to get five more yards of field position. My guess is it will be more like 10 to 15 yards of field position because that kickoff return is going to create a lot more space."



"It's going to be one of the most significant rule changes to come about in recent years – maybe a decade – in college football," Kentucky coach Rich Brooks said. "Very few teams will have a guy who can kick it into the touchback area or out of the end zone. You're going to see offenses starting with a lot better field position. You're going to see scoring averages go up because of this rule change. You're going to see a lot more gimmicks on kickoff coverage – pooch kicking, possible squib kicking.




no offense but i am going to go with the coaches here on this one BB........how can you not think it is going to affect scoring??? (1) The kickoff team has 5 yards further to run to cover kicks, (2) there will be very few if any touchbacks (3) even if you squib the ball or kick it out of bounds the other team starts about the freeking 35 yard line. That wasn't happening last year. Im not saying it is going to add 40 points per game, but i think that teams will have better field position.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

At least one coach suggested three-times as many kickoffs will be returned than were last season, and there is no question that better field position enhances scoring opportunities.

"I asked coach (Tony) Ball, our kick return coach, about how many kicks were we returning percentage-wise last year," Georgia coach Mark Richt said. "He said we only really returned about 25 percent of the kicks. Now, we predict we'll be returning 75 to 90 percent of the kicks. That's going to be at least two, maybe three times as many kicks we're returning this year than we did a year ago.

"You think if you move the ball back 5 yards, you're probably going to get five more yards of field position. My guess is it will be more like 10 to 15 yards of field position because that kickoff return is going to create a lot more space."



"It's going to be one of the most significant rule changes to come about in recent years – maybe a decade – in college football," Kentucky coach Rich Brooks said. "Very few teams will have a guy who can kick it into the touchback area or out of the end zone. You're going to see offenses starting with a lot better field position. You're going to see scoring averages go up because of this rule change. You're going to see a lot more gimmicks on kickoff coverage – pooch kicking, possible squib kicking.




no offense but i am going to go with the coaches here on this one BB........how can you not think it is going to affect scoring??? (1) The kickoff team has 5 yards further to run to cover kicks, (2) there will be very few if any touchbacks (3) even if you squib the ball or kick it out of bounds the other team starts about the freeking 35 yard line. That wasn't happening last year. Im not saying it is going to add 40 points per game, but i think that teams will have better field position.

I guess football coaches are geniuses when it comes to stats.... that is why they need a sheet to tell them when to go for 2....

Only 20% of kickoffs were touchbacks in Div 1A last year so it is IMPOSSIBLE to double the returns. Big 12 led the nation with about 40% touchbacks.

They went from the 40 to the 35 in '86 and the return rate went from 60% to 77%. The average return however has always been about 20 yards. So unless your guy really sucks at kickoffs or your coverage sucks, I still dont see how it is going to be a really big deal. Sure your chance of starting past the 35 has increased but from a small percentage to a slightly higher one..... Thus, as I said before, ON AVERAGE field position will change by 5 yds.

I guarantee there will be more pooch kicks, OB kicks and squibs.... particularly vs. dangerous return teams.

[CuseFan10]

I think field position will increase greatly also. The coverage teams have to run an extra five yards, and it seems A LOT of college kicks were not returned and now plenty more will be. You can bring it out a lot easier if you are a couple yards deep in the end zone because the coverage team is 5 yards further back down the field.

The biggest thing is obviously the clock though. Unlike the ridiculous rules last year, where teams had little to no chance to win the game if they were down inside of 5 minutes, the chance is back again to get your defesne off the field within a minute or so, and capitalize. Should be interesting to track it, but I think the effects will be pretty significant.

[FlyersFan]

i think the absolute biggest factor with the kickoffs is just that Cuse....coverage has 5 yards further to run and the carrier starts 5 yards further out on average. Ted Ginn is a great example....if he gets a running start from the 9 yard line instead of the 4 and has a couple extra seconds to get up his speed before the D is on him, that is going to translate big. I can all but gurantee that if this rule was in last year, OSU would have had about 10-15 yards better field position....and so what if they kick out of bounds....crimeny, name a team that wouldn't take the ball at their own 35 after a kickoff all day long......Teams with big time return guys are going to benefit.......

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

I can all but gurantee that if this rule was in last year, OSU would have had a chance vs the Gators....

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

i think the absolute biggest factor with the kickoffs is just that Cuse....coverage has 5 yards further to run and the carrier starts 5 yards further out on average. Ted Ginn is a great example....if he gets a running start from the 9 yard line instead of the 4 and has a couple extra seconds to get up his speed before the D is on him, that is going to translate big. I can all but gurantee that if this rule was in last year, OSU would have had about 10-15 yards better field position....and so what if they kick out of bounds....crimeny, name a team that wouldn't take the ball at their own 35 after a kickoff all day long......Teams with big time return guys are going to benefit.......

If the kickoff goes the same distance, the coverage has to run no farther. I dont get this point at all.

ie.... kicker normally kicks 60 yds....instead of kicking it to the five, it lands at the ten. Normal coverage... normal 20 yd return. Offense starts at 30 instead of 25.

Ted Ginn averaged 24.4 yd per return....big f'in deal. And that includes a 93 yd TD. OSUs longest return besides him was 31 yds.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

i think the absolute biggest factor with the kickoffs is just that Cuse....coverage has 5 yards further to run and the carrier starts 5 yards further out on average. Ted Ginn is a great example....if he gets a running start from the 9 yard line instead of the 4 and has a couple extra seconds to get up his speed before the D is on him, that is going to translate big. I can all but gurantee that if this rule was in last year, OSU would have had about 10-15 yards better field position....and so what if they kick out of bounds....crimeny, name a team that wouldn't take the ball at their own 35 after a kickoff all day long......Teams with big time return guys are going to benefit.......

I also think OSU had 30 kickoff returns....very few touchbacks. You still have to explain how the hell they would ON AVERAGE get more than 5 more yds of field position.

If he gets a running start from the 9 he is the same distance from the D than when he was at the 4 and the D started at the 35.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

yeah, you're right BB. he wasnt very good at returning kicks or punts or considered dangerous for that matter. should have consulted with you before i put up something relating to ginn.


and as far as getting better field position, the kicks that went into the endzone are now being returned. everything will pretty much be returned. on average the field position will change more than 5 yards, IMO.

Was not busting on Ginn. (by the way, he was only the third best in the Big Ten.) Just making my point that kickoff returns are not going to make that much of a deal if you get another 5 yards. The guy is supposedly Mr Superman and he only averaged 24 yd per return. If he caught a kickoff on the 11 yd line, on average he would be at the 35.

And I already stated only 20% of kicks were not returned, so the point about kicking it in the EZ is almost moot....it rarely happened before.

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

Curious what people's thoughts are on totals this year in CFB and what the books will do early on to the totals to reflect the fact that kickoffs are now from the 30 instead of the 35. I read one article that suggested returns will go from 25 percent of the time to 75 percent of the time and that the average FPG could be 10 yards+. That combined with the fact that the stupid clock rule was repealed should "on paper" have game scores higher than last year. If teams are starting at their own 34 instead of the 20, that is a huge difference....especially for teams with good FG kickers. Now you only have to move 35 yards to get in scoring range as opposed to 50 yards.

This also puts a greater value on teams with good coverage or especially return games. This is coming a year too late for OSU. Can you imagine Ted GinnJr. with more open space and the opportunity to return a kick 2 or 3 times as many times. Even in handicapping a Side in a game, i think you really have to look at the return game as a significant factor. We always look at YPRush, total yards etc...but very rarely do you look at return and coverage games. I will certainly be looking at where teams stack up in YPReturn and the coverage game.......makes things interesting this year.

I haven't seen a "PPG" suggested adjustment for either (a) no more running clock and (b) better field position. Anyone have any thoughts? Will be interesting to see what vegas does with totals and if we see 3-4 point higher totals this year or even more.

[homedawg]

[joepa66]

It's also gonna hurt teams like Kent who will have to vastly improve their kickoff coverage.....they were last in the MAC or very near the bottom as I remember it.....5 yards is gonna be pretty important and force returns that's for sure!

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

And I already stated only 20% of kicks were not returned, so the point about kicking it in the EZ is almost moot....it rarely happened before.

I don't see how it "rarely happened before". I can think of plenty of examples where guys kicked the ball through the end zone, nevermind just got the touchback. If that is a Divison 1-A stat only, I think that 20% is significantly skewed when you consider the affect the smaller conferences have on the statistic. Half the teams in the MAC are an embarrassment to "kicking" for example and never get touchbacks.

I think an important difference is the distinction between the power conferences and the "rest". Teams with stud kickers who can kick the ball Mason Crosby style (or Jeremy Ito or Art Carmody) damn near into the stands are not going to be effected at all by the 5 yards. Those guys bombs through the end zone will simply become kneel-downs one would surmise. It's the teams with crappy kickers who are really going to be penalized by this rule because they will have to squibb or angle or kick out of bounds if their kicker can't even get the ball to the 15 yard line.

Again, the smaller conferences skew that 20% I would be willing to wager. There's no way 4 out of every 5 kicks are returned in major college football, IMHO.

[BoilerBacker]

CUSE:

I read the stat myself. The 2 best conferences are the SEC and Big 12 at about 30 -40%. Just look at some stats yourself if you don't believe me. I don't think Purdue had more than about 7 or 8 all year. I will randomly pick some games right now and post the stats......

2006 games

Ga-South Carolina 6 kickoffs and no TBs
Ga-W KY 13 and 4
Ga-UAB 8 and 3
Ga-Col 7 and 2

Virginia-Pitt 11 and 2
Vir-Miami 5 and 1
Vir-FSU 8 and 2
Vir-ECU 9 and 4
VIr-Md 10 and 1

USC-Notre Dame 13 and 0
USC-ASU 9 and 3
USC-Oregon 9 and 5

Missouri-kan 13 and 5
Mizz-Neb 11 and 4

Col St-Utah 9 and 5
CSU-TCU 13 and 4
CSU-SD st 7 and 0

Iowa-Minn 7, 3
Iowa-NW 6,1
Iowa-Mich 8,3
iowa-Purdue 12, 2

Ind-pur 10, 3
Ind-Iowa 10, 1

OhioU-Akron 5, 0
MAC Champ gm 9,3
OHIO-Miami 12, 4

kan-Iowa St 10,5
Kan-Kan St 14, 6
Kan-Okla State 12,2

Purd-Ill 13,3
Pur-ND 10,1
Pur-Mich St 8,0

Orange Bowl 9,4
Wake-Vtech 9,4
Wake-FSU 8,2
Wake-NC St 12,3

FIU-FAU 7,0
FAU-So Car 10, 1
FAU-Okla St 11,4

SoCar-Clem 11,5
SoCar-Ark 10,0
SoCar-Tenn 10,2

BC-FSU 10,2
BC-Navy 9,0
BC-Buff 9,1

TexTech-OKla 12,0
TT-Okla ST 12,3
TT-ISU 13,4

Cincy-UCONN 12,0
Cincy-Rut 9,2
Cincy-WVU 12,1

Enough data for you.....?