JoePa's MAC Football Preview

[joepa66]

BALL STATE – Coach Brady Hoke posted a career best 5-3 in the MAC last year and expects nothing less this season. The scheduling gods have sprinkled non-conference games between MAC games this season which could provide some spark and excitement throughout the year. The Cardinals open versus conference foes Miami and Eastern Michigan before traveling to Navy and Nebraska, then have 3 homers against Buffalo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan before roadies @ Illinois & Indiana and them return home to Toledo before finishing at Northern Illinois.
If that’s not enough to excite the team and the Muncie faithful, then QB Nate Davis will. The 6’2” sophomore from Bellaire,OH started 7 games under center, tied a BSU single-season record with 18 TD passes, and threw for 1975 yards (4th in BSU history). Wait, he also completed 150 passes *8th best at BSU), completed a career high 27 passes vs. NIU (5th at BSU), and in his first career start vs. NIU also blitzed the Huskies for 298 yards. He tossed 18 TD passes last year versus 8 INTs, and completed 61.5% of his passes. The good news for Davis is that WR Dante Love and TE Darius Hill his fav targets are back. Love caught 52 passes for 735 yards, 14.1ypc, 4 TDs, while Hill snagged 41 passes for 710 yards, 17.3ypc, and 10 TDs. In pass efficiency the Cards were tops in the league with a 150.7 rating, 2nd in passing offense with 237 yards per game, and 2nd in scoring in 29.8ppg. In the ground department, they did lose top rusher Larry Bostic (605 yards) but do return MiQuale Lewis who carried the ball a whole 48 times last year but managed a 5.8ypc average.
So here’s the clincher – defense! Ball State ranked near the bottom in every category last year. They were 12th in pass defense (230.8ypg), 10th in stopping the run (176ypg), and finished 11th in total defense (406.8ypg). Good thing they have 6 returnees back and 3 of their top 5 tacklers – DE Carlton Booker (64 tackles), 11.5TFL and 4 sacks, LB Wendell Brown 83 tackles and 4.5 sacks, and CB Trey Lewis 66 tackles and 4.5 sacks. The Cardinals have a nucleus of experience and plenty of foot speed, which is going to be helpful because they lost 3 down linemen. They’re hoping to outscore their opponents once again this year while the defense matures a bit. Last season the Cardinals outscored their opponents 27.2ppg – 25.8ppg.

[joepa66]

TOLEDO – Toledo Tom (Amstutz) can’t be pleased! Not only did his Rockets finish 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the MAC last year, his worst season’s by far – and the gratitude he gets is a 5-game opening streak against Purdue, trips to Central Michigan & Kansas, homers versus Iowa State and Western Michigan, then finally some relief vs. Liberty in the Glass Bowl. Just what he and his team need after going 45-18 overall, and 31-8 in the MAC in his first 5 seasons before last year’s tanking. His overall record has averaged 9-3 and in MAC play he’s been consistently 6-2 or better. 2006 was UT’s first losing season since 1993, and the opening stretch combined with how his team handles a point-shaving scandal may determine this team’s fate early on.
The best news is that UT returns 8 starters on each side of the ball. RB Jalen Parmele rushed for 100+ yards 5 times last year, including the Rockets final four games of the season. He recorded a career-best 173 yards vs. Ball State in a 20-17 loss in the 11th game of the season, and finished 3rd in MAC rushing with 1131 yards. Nice run at the end of the season and a good foundation for this year. There is little to celebrate at the QB position as 3 QBs were treated like crash test dummies and UT finished 11th in the MAC in passing. Aaron Opelt can run and pass but threw 5 picks and just 6 TDs, Clint Cochran battled the injury bug all season and still passed for 960 yards but still only 6TDs and 4 INTs, while Brandon Summers only attempted 23 passes for 135 yards and 61% completions, 1 TD and 2 INTs.
The Rocket defense allowed 27.6ppg (10th in the MAC), but still their strength may be their defense which ranked 4th versus the run (126ypg) and 5th in total defense in the conference. Top returnees include their 3 leading tacklers from a year ago, FS Tyrell Herbert (74), FS Barry Church (71), LB Greg Hay (66 and 9.5TFL) and also DL Sean Williamson (47 and 6TFL).
The Rockets did end their season winning 3 of their last 4 games and Parmele got untracked. The question remains at QB and if the off-field problems have been a distraction to the team because you know they are constantly reminded about it by the media.

[joepa66]

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -Talk about a fall from grace…..The Huskies and Coach Joe Novak had back to back MAC West titles in 2004 & 2005 but slid too 5-3 last season and 7-6 overall their worst finishes since 2001. And, 2007 doesn’t look any better. In fact, it’s going to be much worse with the loss of 5 offensive starters – most importantly QB Phil Horvath, RB Garrett Wolfe and WR Jarret Carter who accounted for 3987 of the Huskies 4722 total offensive output in 2006. Can you say ouch!
Gone with Wolfe are his 1928 rushing and 249 pass receiving yards and 19 TDs, and Horvath’s 1932 passing yards, 11 TDs and 175.6 QB rating along with his leadership. Now that’s got to be hard to replace! However, backup QB Dan Nicholson returns and is very capable, throwing for 648 yards and 5 TDs but 6 INTs during a Horvath injury absence. It is however, going to be mission impossible to replace Wolfe who got 309 of his teams rushing attempts last year when the 2nd most was 35 by Cas Prime who also graduated. RB Justin Anderson, a sophomore will be asked to fill Wolfe’s 6.2ypc shoes and he only got 25 totes last year. The Huskies also lost two offensive linemen and return a team with no starter having more than 2 years experience. NIU was 2nd in MAC rushing and scoring offense during the 2006 campaign….don’t look for a repeat!
Defensively, NIU returns 7 players but only 2 of their top 5 tacklers and will rely on LB Tim McCarthy who recorded 116 tackles, SS Mark Reiter who had 77 tackles, and LB Cory Hanson who had 72. They Huskies only got 14 sacks last season, ranked 9th in total defense, and 11th in pass defense yielding 230.6ypg. They were almost rubber band-like since they finished 3rd in scoring defense with 18ppg. Defending the run is what they did well as they ranked 3rd (120.9ypg), but teams threw on them and did so often. NIU surrendered the most pass completions and attempts of any MAC team (173/270) for 64.1% completions by their opponents and only 5 INTs.
Too many ifs, ands or buts about this team….

[joepa66]

EASTERN MICHIGAN -Ah the Eagles….what can you say about EMU?! It’s their defense that will help carry them this year, and the offense will sputter again to find some resemblance to a running game. How many years can Coach Jeff Genyk suffer? In three seasons his EMUs are 9-25 overall and 8-16 versus MAC teams, with their only winning records in conference coming against Buffalo (2-0) and surprisingly Central Michigan (2-1). They finished 1-11 last season and 1-7 in the MAC and were doubled up on the scoreboard 26.8 – 13.9ppg.
The defense has two top linebackers, one of them, Daniel Holtzclaw the MAC’s leading tackler from a year ago with 11 stops, and Darran Matthews who had 100 with 4.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks. FS Jacobs Wyatt and SS Chris May added 89 tackles each, and DT Jason Jones who recorded 18.5 TFL for -17 yards which was 5th nationally….and the Eagles have 4 of their top 5 tacklers back on the field this year. So they do have some talent, as 8 players return to that unit which was 5th in pass defense (182.4ypg) but 11th in run defense (186.8ypg) and 10th in total defense (369.1ypg) and last with sacks with just 12 for -68 yards. A bright stat that you can point to is that in 6 games last year they were beaten by an average of 5.4 points ---Northwestern (14-6), Central Michigan 24-17 OT), BGSU (24-21), Western Michigan (18-15), Ohio (16-10), and Kent (1406).
But what that’s you say, oh, “What about the offense”? Hmmm….they were inconsistent at best, and lost 5 starters from last year, two of them their top receivers and two linemen. The amazing stats are that they utilized a tandem QB system who ended up being their top rushers on the team. Both ran the ball 107 times as Andy Schmitt gained 461 yards and scored 4 TDs and Tyler Jones ran for 310 yards and 4 TDs…..talk about mirror images! Passing wise, Schmitt threw for 1182 yards with 2 TDs and 6 INTs while Jones threw for 754 yards with 4 TDs and 9 INTs. The duo also accounted for nearly all of the EMUs offense with 2707 of the team’s 3315 total yards. Their top go-to passing target on caught 169 yards in passes last year. As a team they averaged just 105 yards on the ground, were dead last in scoring average (13.2ppg), 9th in passing (172ypg), 9th in rushing offense, last in total offense (288ypg) and last in passing efficiency. Hey, let’s key on the QB!
With that many defensive stars coming back, the offensive output will determine the Eagles finish. If they can get it untracked they could challenge NIU for the 5th spot in the West.

[Underdog88]

Thanks for taking the time to do this JoePa, much appreciated. This thread is a must read & should be a sticky.

[joepa66]

Thanks Udogg, Fitter, Wonk, Whaleydog, JPix and Skinsfan......I think I've got it done and am ready to start posting plays. Was gonna do a Big Ten Preview but I hardly have the time or energy since school started.


Will get my picks posted for this week on Weds. or Thursday!

[Q-Unit]

do you usually just bet mac and big ten?

mostly? or exclusively?

thanks for the info bro, even if you copied and pasted it off of phil steele and the back of a bathroom stall in New Phila! LOL

[sdsurfn]

Great stuff Joepa, much appreciated.


I'll be looking forward to your picks this year.


But I'll be looking more forward to the oven mitt's picks!

[joepa66]

Your certainly welcome guys, but I cannot take all the credit. I found lots of this information in a fortune cookie behind Q's house 3 weeks ago....LMAO