***UDoggie's NCAA Week 1***

[Underdog88]

Yes sir, it's that time of the year



I'm gonna keep 1 thread throughout the week & post thoughts/update plays as the days go by. I'll be focusing on dog moneylines just as much as spread plays, but will keep a seperate record. Still looking into doggies, but I already have a couple plays locked in....




Mia Oh/Ball St. o53-115

3 units


Texas-39

TTech-9

Oregon St-6.5

New Mexico-3

ULM+150

Wmich/WV o55.5

2 units each





Miami Oh+185

Wake+220

Ok. State+235

Toledo+235

K-State+440/+14-120

1 unit each


LSU-2700
Navy-2150
WV-4500
VT-4500
Mia FL-1200
Mich St-1600
Iowa-600
FSU-160

2 to win 2.95 units



ML parlay is basically a play on FSU, with some "safe" plays to bump up the value.... had some success doing this last year, these are pretty much the dog moneylines that I wouldn't touch.....FSU's speed on D should be able to stifle Clemson's run game, & the wr position is a big question mark for Clemson. Basically I think Clemson will have some trouble scoring in this one. Hopefully Weatherford can flourish under the new OC. Leaning towards the under as well. Other leans include

Utah St+6.5/+210

Wyoming+4/+155

Mia OH+6/+195

Zona+5/ +185




I'll be back with further thoughts.... GLTA this season

[BullsFan09]

I'm new to this forum but I read your picks on another forum last season. Considering Ok. St. and Toledo. GL this week and season

[FlyersFan]

can't believe you're not on WYO as a dog at home.....i think that is too much respect for the ACC combined with people not understanding how close to a very good season WYO was last year. Love the pokes getting 5 especially after their coach told the media day people to take the points when he found out they were a dog......lol...

GL! this season....

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

can't believe you're not on WYO as a dog at home.....i think that is too much respect for the ACC combined with people not understanding how close to a very good season WYO was last year.

Evidently you didn't read my leans... 5Dimes currently has the moneyline set at +155, & I would really like to see +165 before I lock it in. I think Wyoming has an excellent chance at a su win, my only concern is how the o-line will perform...



Thanks Bullsfan- GL to you as well.




Illinios, GT & Duke are all possible ml plays too. The more I look at the Vols, the more I think I'll stay away. They have revenge going for them, but I have to think Cal will have an advantage offensively. It feels really good to look at matchups other than bases.

[TheBeholdah]

gl u dog, ok st i like , also g teck, i think that kansas st has a legit shot at staying in the number, ur gonna be on the spread too right?

[FlyersFan]

Chalkdog88- sorry, my bad....i didn't see them. I am going to be on KST +14 and looking at GTECH with that defense.

[birdsfan5]

GL Underdog

[BUNK MORELAND]

....!!!!

Love the NOLES analysis ....

[Underdog88]

Thanks Beholdah, Birds, Wonkaford

Beholdah- added K state spread in, was gonna wait to try & get 14, but I'm not sure it gets there...


Also took the Vols off the radar- I think I would need 8 to reall consider it, which won't happen. Mia OH will likely get the boot too, just don't think they have enough to pull it out. Still weighing the options in the Zona game.

Utah St+6.5/UNLV is an interesting line. UNLV has has 2 straight seasons in which they didn't win a road game. They have an 0-14 road run going, & haven't won away since Oct. 8 2004! 4 of their 6 road games last year were losses of 21 or more. How can this team be favored on the road? Don't get me wrong, I know Utah ST is horrible, but they did pull out 1 win last year @ home vs. Fresno St. Getting better than 2:1 on a team that can't win on the road? Thinking about it....


Texas- I think this is about the 3rd or 4th time in my life where I layed chalk higher than 21 pts. I know 2 for sure were Texas, & they treated me well. I'm sure Texas will look to open strong this year, & I think 51+ will be on the scoreboard for the Horns by the end of the game. Colt will play the whole 1sth, & with TCU on deck I'm sure they will look to put this away early. Will look to add Texas 1sth when it becomes available for these reasons.

TTech- #1 passing attack in 4 of the last 6 yrs facing a SMU defense that was 110th vs the pass? 9 pts may look like a bunch, but TTech has won the last 4x they faced SMU by DD. Last year they won 35-3. This is a game where I feel people will be lining up to play the over 59, when they are missing out on the stronger play in TTech. Harrel seemingly got much better as the season went on last year, & with SMU adding 3 new defensive lineman, I don't think they will get enough pressure on him to hinder the passing attack. Would like to hear Q-Units thoughts on this one.

Oregon St- Yes they have a new QB, but he's behind a solid line & facing the 80th ranked pass D last year. Utah still has a bit too much respect from a couple years ago, & I think they are outmatched vs. the Pac10. In last year's opener they lost 31-10 @ UCLA, & let's not forget what Oregon St. did @ home last year... (USC). I will gladly lay under a TD for Oregon St @ home.

New Mexico- Taking the better team here to grab the road win. 10 returners on D, facing a new QB for UTEP who also lost their top 3 wide receivers. Ferguson should provide steady offensive output this season, as he came on pretty strong late last season. Last season he rushed for 162 yds in a 26-13 win vs. UTEP.....

ULM- They are returning their whole offense, & are 11-4 ats last 15 as dogs...however I'm throwing away the 3 pts as I think they win this su.


I am waiting for the total to come out for WV/WMU. Hopefully it's around 54, I will be playing the over big up to 58. Even though WMU has a solid D, Slaton & that WV backfield will be able to move the ball. The WRs also have an advantage....but I also like WMU to put up some points. I don't think WV's D is going to be all that dominant. Last year 5 of their 7 home games went over 55 total points. I think WV puts up 42+, & WMU put up the rest.....

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Illinios, GT & Duke are all possible ml plays too. The more I look at the Vols, the more I think I'll stay away. They have revenge going for them, but I have to think Cal will have an advantage offensively. It feels really good to look at matchups other than bases.

First and foremost UDoggie, GL to you this year. I look forward to seeing your picks the rest of the year.
However, I was just curious about your thoughts on IL/MIZZOU game after seeing you were considering a ML play on the Illini. I've obviously been to all the home games my last 3 years down here and seen just about every road game. Although I think they will (or at least should be based on the talented recruits panning out) be challenging for a B10 title in a few years, I think they are still 1 year away from doing anything major (i.e. an 8-9 win season). I think, or at least hope, they can play around .500 ball this season. They will get at least one big win (one of the home games vs Wisky, Penn St, or Michigan) and open some eyes with their young players. However, they have to learn how to win first and let the talent develop more throughout the season. I think there will be a lot of season-opening jitters for the youngsters, esp. since it's the Braggin' Rights game. I just don't see how IL can stay w/in a TD in this one.
Again, just my two cents.


Moose

[CuseFan10]

Riveting thread... haha, GL this week Udoggie!!!

[FearTheRaven]

GL UDogg

[emv01]

Holy hell is that Chalkdogg coming back from the dead with the Long Horns -39...Haha...Gl with the plays man on a few myself..

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

TTech- #1 passing attack in 4 of the last 6 yrs facing a SMU defense that was 110th vs the pass? 9 pts may look like a bunch, but TTech has won the last 4x they faced SMU by DD. Last year they won 35-3. This is a game where I feel people will be lining up to play the over 59, when they are missing out on the stronger play in TTech. Harrel seemingly got much better as the season went on last year, & with SMU adding 3 new defensive lineman, I don't think they will get enough pressure on him to hinder the passing attack. Would like to hear Q-Units thoughts on this one.

this is what I wrote in mpharris's thread (hope he didnt mind my just chiming in my two cents lol)

Originally Posted by Q-Unit

I may be staying away from this game, just based on they are returning only 1 to the O-Line, an O-line that sucked anyways last year that led to Harrell having to pick himself off the ground too much, and they've lost virtually all of their D-line, so they are susceptible to any back worth his salt.

the Raider's top WRs all 3 of them in fact are gone as well, though that doesnt worry me as much cuz they always seem to be able to replace them.

and TTU always starts the year off slow on the road.

in late october, I would take this game, but the spread being 9 seems fishy to me for some reason. IMO all it takes is the new O-line to play suckass like they did last year to make that matchup a wash, and for TTU not to take SMU seriously and end up squeaking this one out. While they are replacing their D-Line, I believe their 2ndary will be their strength, and I personally will be rooting for CB Jamar Wall, who graduated from my high school. apparently this kid once ran 500 yards in one HS game, had 400 by halftime, and coach sat him out in the 2nd half when he "only had 80". LOL.

I am actually looking at the under...

(in spite of last year, I've been burned in the past taking my alma mater too early in the season against SMU at least ATS, when they were just getting warmed up)

GL underdog! like your other plays

I'll go on record and say I am not too high on them this year, they will put up big numbers as always, but I dunno if that is enough.

[Stifler's Mom]

Good stuff as always

I like the Illini too this year. Will probably be on them myself against Mizzou this weekend. B12 teams are just plain old good fades when playing on the road outside the conference, lol