MP's Im' Finally Back Week One Picks

[MParris86]

Hallelujah! It's CFB season and I'm happier than Richard Simmons at a spandex party.

Glad to be back for another season. Anyway, here's my week one plays:

Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 vs. Tulsa (bought 0.5 pt) 1 unit LOSS

A 4-8 team last year, the Warhawks were a tough-luck team a year ago, dropping two 2-point games to Kansas and Kentucky. When they entered conference play, they lost by five points to Troy, had another two-point loss against Florida Atlantic and then lost another narrow game by four to Arkansas State. Talk about being snakebitten...

ULM returns 17 starters, including its entire O and Tulsa has lost 12 straight road openers, meaning they either don't play well early in the season and/or they struggle on the road. Not my favorite play of the week, but if last year was any indication of the moxy of the Warhawks, this will be a close one.

Prediction: Tulsa 30 ULM 28


LSU -18.5 at Mississippi State 2 units WON

Miss. State must rebuild a defense with five returning starters and improve an offense with that finished 97th in the nation in scoring offense and 103rd in total offense last year.

LSU has won the last seven games by a 295-81 margin, including two shutouts. They have 15 returning starters and QB Matt Flynn is a first year starter but has game experience and knows the system well.

The LSU defense will be lights out and Miss. State will have a hard time scoring against the Tiger defense that was one of the best in the country last season.

Prediction: LSU 35 Mississippi State 13


San Jose State +15 at Arizona State 1 unit

SJSU won nine games last season and capped off their season with a bowl victory. They have alot of momentum heading into 2007.

They return veteran quarterback Adam Tafralis who finished 11th in the nation in passing efficiency. The WRs have been depleted but he is surrounded by a solid and deep stable of RBs to take pressure off.

The defense should be solid again after forcing 30 turnovers last year. LB Matt Castelo is the nation’s leading returning tackler after recording 165 last year from his spot in the middle, while Dwight Lowery teams with Christopher Owens to give the Spartans the WAC’s best cornerback combination.

Arizona State has the talent to be a good team, they just consistently fall short of expectations. They should win this game, but a confident SJSU team with a tough defense should hang in there.

Prediction: Arizona State 24 SJSU 14


Texas Tech -9 at SMU 2 units

The Red Raiders passing vs. a suspect SMU defense...hmm.

TT quarterback Graham Harrell returns with experience under his belt. He had a "poor" season in many regards but still tossed for 38 touchdowns. He is back after leading that amazing 31 point comeback last season vs. Minnesota in the bowl game.

He will face a SMU defense that was awful against the pass last season and doesn't seem to appear any better off this year. From FSN:

"If the Mustangs fail to reach expectations, the defense will probably be the guilty party. Replacing three starting defensive linemen and five members of the two-deep is going to take its toll, particularly on a pass defense that was 110th nationally a year ago."

Last season the Red Raiders won by 32, I don't see why they should win by DD again this season.

Prediction: Texas Tech 35 SMU 20




I'll probably add more later in the week. GL All!

[MParris86]

Adding:

Arizona +4.5 at BYU 1 unit

Tailing alot of people here; I am concerned with BYU's offense considering that Beck (their heart and soul) is gone along with his best target Harline and other pieces of the offense.

Arizona, meanwhile returns the nucleus of its team from a year ago, and seems to be on the verge having a breakout year. Their defense should be good and that's bad news for an inexperienced BYU offense. Antoine Cason is one of the best corners in the country and should make it tough to throw for BYU.

The Wildcats beat the Cougars last year and I think they can definitely do it again, even if its on the road.

Prediction: Arizona 27 BYU 21

[MParris86]

And for fun:

7 point teaser, 6 teams (0.5 units to win 2.5 units)

LSU -11.5 at Miss. State (A team poised to win a NC should be able to easily cover this)
West Virginia -16.5 vs. Western Michigan (WVU's run game wears out Broncs at home)
Iowa -5 vs. Northern Illinois (Don't think NIU can win here w/o Wolfe)
Purdue +0.5 at Toledo (Toledo will keep close but Purdue's pass O is too much)
Florida International +45 at Penn State (Nittany Lions usually start slow)
Texas -32 vs. Arkansas State (Texas should be up by 28+ at half)

[sdsurfn]

good to hear from you MParris.


I'm with you on LSU. Still looking at Saturday's games, really liking Arizona...

[CuseFan10]

BOL this week Mparris!

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by MParris86

Texas Tech -9 at SMU 2 units

GL man!

hope youre right!

I may be staying away from this game, just based on they are returning only 1 to the O-Line, an O-line that sucked anyways last year that led to Harrell having to pick himself off the ground too much, and they've lost virtually all of their D-line, so they are susceptible to any back worth his salt.

the Raider's top WRs all 3 of them in fact are gone as well, though that doesnt worry me as much cuz they always seem to be able to replace them.

and TTU always starts the year off slow on the road.

not to diss your plays be any means, JMO, but I do hope you hit this and your other plays!

[birdsfan5]

GL MParris. Do you think your brother is going to get some playing time this year? I watched some clips of him in practice and he looked real good.

[MParris86]

Thanks fellas. Birds, you should see him out there against GT. He's the #3 WR and should see time in several formations.

Q-

I looked at the boxscore from last year's game and TT outgained SMU 501-189. Harrell threw for 342 and 5 TDs. SMU threw for 71 yards. Unless SMU has gotten exponentially better defending the pass and vastly improved their ability to throw the ball, I just don't see how they are going to keep it within single digits. Sure they've improved and TT has some new faces, but one thing that has been certain is that they find the players to throw the ball all over the field with good success. Looking at a 10-17 point win for TT.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL!
Nice to see you....looking forward to your picks this year!

[Underdog88]

I agree completely with TTech- too much firepower for an unproven secondary to handle... GL this year

[Livin tha Life]

Gl2u

[MParris86]

Thanks guys...hope you all kick the man in the nuts this week. Here's to a big week one.

[BoKnows]

GL MP!!Looking forward to your strong work!

[shorts]

BOL to ya MP!! Go ULM and LSU!!

[joepa66]

Nice to see ya TE!

Love SmelLSU too....let's get off on the right foots tonight!