On The September 2007 I-AA/FCS Gridiron

[EveryGamblersDream]

Elon +39 -115

Eastern Kentucky +34 -115

Appalachian State +28.5 -115

Youngstown State +32 -115

Alabama -37 -115

Holy Cross +19 -115

Fordham +15 -115

Albany +1.5 -115

Dayton +9 -115

South Carolina State +22.5 -115

Southern +8 -115

Southern Utah +27 -115

Jacksonville +18

Villanova +30.5 -115

James Madison +11.5 -115

Monmouth +22 -115

Marist +30 -115

Bucknell +5.5 -115

Stony Brook -8 -115

Richmond +27 -115

Montana State +28.5 -115

Indiana State +33.5 -115

Nicholls State +23 -115

Portland State -1 -115

Sacramento State +33.5 -115

Northern Colorado +60.5 -115

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Season: 06-04-00 60% +140 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

[EveryGamblersDream]

Appalachian State +35 -115

[EveryGamblersDream]

09/01/07 Recap:

17-09-01 65% +665 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

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Season:

23-13-01 64% +805 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

[EveryGamblersDream]

Tonight 7 p.m. EST:

Missouri St. +10.5 -115

[EveryGamblersDream]

Tonight 7:35 p.m. est

Arkansas Pine Bluff +1.5 -115

[EveryGamblersDream]

Recap 09/06/07:

02-00-00 100% +200 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

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Season:

25-13-01 66% +865 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

[EveryGamblersDream]

Grambling +28 -115

Eastern Illinois +29.5 -115

Northeastern -3.5 -115

Georgetown +19 -115

Hampton -13 -115

Wagner -6.5 -115

Army -16 -115

Colgate +19 -115

Lehigh PK -115

Robert Morris +18 -115

Sacred Heart -21 -115

Morehead St. -5.5 -115

William & Mary -15.5 -115

Samford +46.5 -115

Chattanooga +13 -115

New Hampshire +1 -115

Morgan St. +8 -115

Cal Poly +8 -115

Southern PK -115

Austin Peay +13 -115

Stony Brook +5.5 -115

Albany PK -115

Western Carolina +8.5 -115

Albany PK -115

Jacksonville +18 -115

South Dakota St. +8.5 -115

Maine +22.5 -115

Northern Iowa +5.5 -115

Winston Salem +8 -115

Western Illinois +24.5 -115

Southeastern Louisiana +40.5 -115

Central Arkansas +6 -115

Charleston Southern +24 -115

Illinois St. -21.5 -115

Southern Illinois +7.5 -115

Stephen F. Austin +21 -115

San Diego -34.5 -115

Northern Arizona +24.5 -115


Will briefly comment on a few of these games in a bit.

[EveryGamblersDream]

1A vs 1AA:

I think a minimum of 3 of these teams win outright against their 1A opponent: Eastern Illinois, Cal Poly, Maine, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Northern Arizona. My ratings have Cal Poly, Northern Iowa, & Southern Illinois as favorites.

The easiest one should be Cal Poly. Northern Iowa & Southern Illinois are easily capable of winning their respective games as they are arguably as talented if not more so than their opponents.

The hardest one will probably be Northern Arizona. They are used to this game & have played well against the Cats before. I'm not sold on Arizona being a good team & think they are vulnerable to a NAz squad that has nothing to lose in this game.

If Maine wins, it will be because of their defense. They know how to play defense & are a legit top 5 defensive squad in the country. The Black Bears also are no strangers to 1-A competition as this is the 4 year in a row they are meeting a 1-A opponent. They held their own quite well against Boston College last year in a game they lost 22-0. The score was quite misleading as they fumbled 5 times (losing 3 of them), & was picked off once. This is also the same team that went into SEC country & beat Mississippi State in 2004.

The Black Bears are also no stranger to UConn as this is the 73rd meeting between these two teams albeit the first since 1999. Uconn leads the series 38-31-3 which dates back to the days they both played in the Yankee/A10 conference. In my opinion I have the superior defense on my side in a statement game for Maine & I'm getting over 3 TD's. I think they squeak this game out by 7-10 points. If they do lose, it should not be by more than 10-13 points.

Eastern Illinois is a strong selection as well. One thing is for starters, this is an emotional game for their coach Bob Spoo who is returning to face his alma mater. This is only his second game back after missing all of last season with a medical illness.

One thing that I am banking on is Purdue not taking this game seriously. It is a known fact that Joe Tiller hates these 1A vs 1AA games as he feels they are a waste of time. He does not think they accomplish much as the competition to him is so inferior. Well last I check I would not want to put my money on a coach with that attitude about a game, especially when they are 4+ TD favorites.

When I see Purdue play against a 1-AA squad, it is pretty much almost an automatic play against them. This is one of the main reasons I backed Indiana State team last year when they were catching +46 last year. They were much inferior to Eastern Illinois & they put up 5 TD's on them. They did give up 60 but Eastern Illinois will not give up even 40 in this game.

E. Illinois is no slouch as they are a legit top 20 team who could definitely walk into West Lafayette & beat the Boilermakers. I think they put up at least 24 points & either win by a 3-7 points or lose by 10 at the most.


As far as 1AA vs 1AA goes, I think these teams have a good shot at outright victories: Chattanooga, New Hampshire, Morgan St, Austin Peay, Stony Brook, Western Carolina, South Dakota St, Central Arkansas & Monmouth. In some of these games, my ratings feel the current dog should be the favorite (New Hampshire, Stony Brook, South Dakota St, & Central Arkansas)

A game that I think has a woodshed ass whooping written all over it is Illinois St -21.5. They are still fuming after losing to a non scholarship team in Drake last week. A loss like that can damage playoff aspirations. They are looking to beat someone down & make a statement. Murray St fresh off their ass whooping by Louisville might see more of the same. Illinois St is usually real good at making statements after a bad loss & this should be no different.

The only way Murray St covers is if Illinois St plays sloppy & after last week I don't think that is possible if they have a clue.

Albany is playing at Fordham & I might head on over to watch that game if I don't make it out to see Furman vs Hofstra. Anyhow, Albany lost a game last week that they should not have. They gave a game away & they know it. I would say they would make a statement & beat Fordham by tons of points but that isn't happening. I say this because they are just not a good offensive team.

They win games with their defense which is one of the best on any level of college football. They win by beating the piss out of you on the defensive side of the ball & win games like 13-0, 17-3 etc... ala if you see them laying a ton of points, they usually are a good go against. Anyhow they can't afford to go 0-2 so you will see a great effort out of them today. Fordham is improving but they are not at the level of Albany at this time. While Albany can sometimes play to their competition, this shouldn't be the case after last week's tough loss. They should win comfortably by 7-10 points.

Colgate: Well one thing is for sure they always give UMass a tough game. No matter how inferior they are to the Minutemen, they seem to always give them a hard time. They are like Urkel to Umass in that they never go away. While many are predicting a down year for Colgate, I think they will be improved. While I don't think they will win the game, they should cover wire to wire.

Robert Morris: I will admit that Robert Morris imo will be a bit down from their usual standards due to their youth. However they are not almost 3 TD's inferior to anyone in this conference. I think the line is inflated due to the scare Monmouth put into Maine last week.

However in this game their opponent Monmouth has their share of youth. Monmouth lost a lot of talent to graduation. So to really think these two teams are almost 3 TD's apart is ridiculous imo. These teams are usually neck & neck & I think this game will be closer than the so called experts think. Monmouth also is not known for blowing teams out & covering huge #'s like this. I would not be surprised if RMU stole this game without their head coach or lost by single digits. Either way the points should be an easy winner.


A word to the wise about San Diego. On paper & talent alone they should beat Marist by 50. However their new head coach has a much different philosophy from Jim Harbaugh. Jim had no qualms about making statements & continuing to pour it on. Nowadays the Toreros first year coach Ron Caragher is all about sportsmanship. He clearly does not have the killer instinct Harbaugh brought to the team.

Many players are quite upset at coach Caragher as he was taking knees instead of trying to score again before the end of the 1st H when they were up 28-3 against last week against Azusa Pacific (NAIA). He also played the second team unit most of the second half & they blew the huge lead.

The final score ended up being 42-32. If this is going to be the norm, they might stop being the cover machines they were under Harbaugh. Saying all of this Marist is bad & would probably get their ass kicked by a good # of Div II, III, & NAIA teams so it shouldn't hurt this week. However store the nugget for future use if this scenario continues to play out.

The last game I will talk about is Central Arkansas. They are imo looking to take out some frustrations after losing at La Tech in a game they actually dominated. The #'s don't like as they:

More than doubled up La Tech on first downs (28-13)

Out gained them on offense by 125 yards (386-261)

Out passed them by 205 yards (206-71)

Had more offensive plays (94-59)

The reason they lost is due to 6 turnovers (5 INT's & 1 fumble) & horrific special teams play. They had a muffed punt return attempt inside the 10 & allowed a combined 183 yards in kickoff & punt returns. They also missed a FG as well

I think they rebound with a huge effort & make a statement with a double digit victory.


Well I am going to go take a nap so good luck everyone.

[EveryGamblersDream]

Two last things I forgot to mention:

1. I can't find a line on the Furman-Hofstra game. I love Hofstra in this spot as this team is not as bad as their record last year indicates. They are looking to surprise some people this year & I think they will do just that. Furman is known for having its trouble on the road at times & this game is definitely a spot for them to be ambushed. The Pride have been waiting for this game all summer so they are ready to spring the upset. They will definitely get double digits if a line does get put up.

2. One game I forgot to comment on is Towson vs Morgan St. On paper Towson is the superior foe although Morgan St has improved. However they have not made up the 28 points they lost by this year. So why did I back Morgan St? Well because this is a clear trap game for Towson.

Morgan St & Towson are cross town rivals. However imo Towson is looking past their crosstown rival to their matchup next week against top 5 UMASS. This is a game that Morgan St is looking to make a statement in after last season's ass whooping. If UMass was not on deck, I would have backed Towson but in this clear look ahead spot, look for Morgan St to stay in this game wire to wire if not outright steal it from Towson.

[EveryGamblersDream]

09/08/07 Recap:

22-16-00 58% +360 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

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Season:

47-29-01 62% +1225 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

[EveryGamblersDream]

Saturday:

The Citadel +40 -115

Furman +30 -115

Western Carolina +45 -115

Northern Arizona +23.5 -115

New Hampshire +6 -115

Wofford +14 -115

Nicholls St. +19 -115

[EveryGamblersDream]

Thursday:

Jackson St. -11 -115

Presbyterian +12.5 -115



Saturday:

Massachusetts -15.5 -115

Northeastern +6.5 -115

Colgate -6.5 -115

Duquesne +14 -115

Georgetown +16.5 -115

Holy Cross +3.5 -115

Sacred Heart -8 -115

St. Francis Pennsylvania +18 -115

Wagner +1 -115

Western Kentucky -1.5 -115

Stony Brook +13 -115

New Hampshire +7.5 -115

[EveryGamblersDream]

09/13/07 Recap:

2-0-0 100% +200 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

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Season:

49-29-01 63% +1425 (Based on to win $100 per selection)

[EveryGamblersDream]

Furman +34 -115 (Game should be closer than expected & would not be shocked at an outright win)

Bethune Cookman -24 -115

New Hampshire +8 -115

Albany +11.5 -115

Liberty +17 -115

Southern Utah +18 -115

San Diego -13.5 -115

UC Davis PK -115

Portland St. -2.5 -115

[EveryGamblersDream]

McNeese St. +6 -115

Central Arkansas -9.5 -115

Sam Houston St. +10 -115

South Dakota St. +9.5 -115


No time to breakdown stuff this week. I will start blogging more in depth starting sometime next week about football in general along with picks & such. Anyhow a few comments:

St. Francis: I'm banking on a huge letdown spot for Robert Morris after their huge win against conference rival Monmouth. Robert Morris usually plays tight games to begin with so I feel comfortable getting almost 3 TD's in an obvious flat spot.

Western Kentucky: Bigtime revenge game for them as they lost to their bitter rival last season. The Hilltoppers have made the move to 1-A sitting as an independent at the time. They need statement games to show the progress of their program & this is a good spot for just that in front of the hometown fans. They should win this game comfortably by double digits.

Nicholls State: Nevada can't stop the run & that is Nicholls State specialty. They won't be afraid stepping up against a 1-A team as they did that already this season & came out with a win against Rice. I love their chances of winning this game outright & if they don't they should easily cover the #. Run run run......

Albany: I am very high on this team & the quality of their defense. However besides those factors, I love the spot they are in today. This is a huge letdown spot for the Hofstra Pride. They are still talking about their ambush upset win (which I told you they would ambush Furman) of a ranked & very good Furman team. Now they must hit the road against an instate rival who would love nothing more than to make a statement in this game. This is a good spot for them to win outright but if they don't their defense should easily keep them withing 11.5.

Southern Utah: Here is another game with a huge letdown spot involved. #7 Southern Illinois is fresh off their win against 1-A Northern Illinois (don't call it an upset as it wasn't). Now they have to travel to Utah to play a Southern Utah team that is pretty scrappy. I think this is a classic game where you go through the motions & depend on your superiority to win. While I don't think Southern Utah has the horses to pull out the straight up victory, I do think they cover wire to wire & keep it interesting.

South Dakota State: This is yet another huge letdown spot game. Northern Iowa comes into this game fresh off their victory (once again not an upset) over in-state rival & I-A Iowa State. Now they have to travel to Brookings to play a very desperate & hungry South Dakota State team. SDS is sitting at 0-2, losing their opening road games by a combined 10 points. They now get to play at home in what is a must win game as a loss could lead them to a definite losing record. I think Northern Iowa is in trouble in this game as this could be an ambush waiting to happen. A motivated & desperate team at home in what is a tough venue, I like my chances getting double digits. I do think an outright win is strong here.

San Diego: Quite frankly even with their new coach not running up scores, they should never be in question about covering against Northern Colorado. This is the same Northern Colorado team that not only lost but got shut out by a Div II team in their home opener. This should be a complete laugher from start to finish.

Bethune Cookman: Two words; Savannah State! Go back the last couple of years & see how I have never lost a game betting against what is the worst team in I-AA football bar none. I am always tempted to make their opponent my game of the year as it worked once & I don't know when it will stop working. I won't do it this week but you get the point.