MP's Week Three Plays

[MParris86]

Went 2-1 with my ATS plays, but lost my big one with Nebraska, who really pissed me off with their performance.

Thought my 3 team 10pt teaser also looked good, all I needed was a VT +21.5 cover but the Hokies folded like a cheap tent against LSU.

Anyway, on to week three....

UCLA -13.5 at Utah (4 units)

I like UCLA this year and think they have a well coached veteran team. But this is more a play against the Utes, who appear to be in a world of hurt...literally.

Utah (0-2) lost its opener 24-7 to Oregon State. We all saw the other night the Beavers get their asses handed to them by 31 against Cincinnati. While, those types of comparisons aren't always accurate, it should say something. The big story, however, was that the Utes lost starting QB Brian Johnson to a separated shoulder, lost RB Matt Asiata for the season, and TE Colt Sampson four weeks to a sprained knee.

They played with backup QB Tommy Grady last week and he was decent (20-39 240 1 td, 2 INT) in a 20-12 loss to Air Force. The offense had trouble scoring again and the defense allowed 334 rushing yards to AF. The Utes lost ANOTHER starter last week, as WR Brent Casteel suffered a season-ending knee injury. He was Utah's leading receiver in week one and scored their only TD.

UCLA ended BYU's 11-game winning streak dating back to last season in week 2, winning by 10. They got dominated through the air and blew a 20-0 halftime lead, but held on against a good team.

UCLA has beaten Utah eight straight times, including a 31-10 win last season.

Prediction: UCLA 35 Utah 17


New Mexico State -6.5 vs. UTEP (1 unit)

Both teams are 1-1. NMSU has the best player on the field in QB Chase Holbrook, who has gotten off to a strong start with 753 yards and 8 TDs already. The Aggie offense has put up 511 ypg so far, the defense just needs to step up after allowing 44 pts last week to New Mexico.

UTEP beat New Mexico 10-6 in an UGLY week 1 game. The UTEP offense is pretty abysmal after graduating both QB Jordan Palmer and WR Johnnie Lee Higgins. New QB Trevor Vittatoe is just 18-47 for 261 yards through 2 games. Thats about what Palmer would do in a half last year.

Last year, UTEP beat NMSU at home 44-38. Palmer and Higgins pretty much beat the Aggies themselves, as Higgins caught 7 passes for 223 yards. This year, UTEP doesnt have that type of gamebreaker(s). Holbrook gashed the UTEP defense for 400+ and 4 TDs last season. He should have another good game this season and I think NMSU protects their home field.

Prediction: NMSU 28 UTEP 20


Maryland +17 vs. West Virginia (bought 0.5 pt) (1 unit)

I see alot of value here with a live home dog on national TV. Maryland's defense is pretty decent and the Terps should be able to control the clock a bit with the running of RB Keon Lattimore, who has put up back to back 100 yard games so far.

WVU looked very sluggish last week coming out of the gate and needed a big second half to pull away from a mediocre Marshall team. If they do the same this week, they could find themselves in a hole at halftime again but alot harder to climb out.

I think 17 is too much here given the game is at Maryland. WVU beat MD last year by 21 at home, but used a defensive TD and special teams TD in that game. The yardage discrepancy was only 50 yards in favor of WV.

Mountaineers should win here, but they'll have to earn it.

Prediction: West Virginia 34 Maryland 21


And as always, for fun:

3 team, 10-point teaser

USC EVEN at Nebraska (Trojans have had two weeks to prepare; Huskers are going to have problems scoring IMO)
Kansas -11.5 vs. Toledo (Kansas O is averaging 57ppg and Toledo has allowed 52 points in each of their first two games)
Wake Forest -11 vs. Army (Sorry, but the Cadets' anemic offense isn't going to score enough points on the road against a good D)


I'll likely add a couple more plays later this week after I scour the lines and the board some more.


GL All!

[FlyersFan]

MP- GL!....Holbrook single handedly cost his team the game with his 4Q INT's on saturday. that being said, i do like NMSU....GL!

[PhillyFan3]

gl MP... prolly gonna tail that UCLA pick

[MParris86]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

MP- GL!....Holbrook single handedly cost his team the game with his 4Q INT's on saturday. that being said, i do like NMSU....GL!

Yeah, that was a rough end to the game...the one INT wasn't entirely his fault (TE got hit right when the ball arrived, it popped up and was picked off by another guy). Holbrook throws the hell out of the ball and usually takes pretty good care of it (34 tds, 9 ints LY) and has a comp % around 73% over the past two seasons. So its not as if he is a poor decision maker. Just bad luck and timing last week I guess.

[ncsucharlie]

hell yes, great write up for the UCLA game .. looking at the one real hard now.. THANKS and best of luck for week #3

[sdsurfn]

GL MParris. With ya on UCLA, leaning Maryland.


Nebraska really **** the bed last week.

[The Gipper]

Mp
I ikethe UCLA pick as Utah is really banged up and the Bruins D is rock solid.
Also in your three tream teaser, I think Wake and Kansas are good one on their own but look even sweeter in your teaser.
Hope Robby has a big day in the Big House Saturday.

[jpix]

Agree with you on Maryland. Plus home team on Thursday night Prime Time.

[joepa66]

GL this week Tightend......love the UCLAns.....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

As always, one of the best CFB threads of the week.
Always appreciate the insight, Mark.

GL this week....I'm on the Bruins with ya!

[MParris86]

Thanks guys....hope you all have big weekends.

JML...Mike not Mark.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL Marvin

[MParris86]

Adding:

North Carolina -2.5 vs. Virginia (bought 0.5 pt) (2.5 units)

Not sure why this one got past me on my first look at the lines. I'll take a team with alot of optimism in the Butch Davis era at home over a completely inept Virginia team for less than a FG any day.

UVA's offense is downright horrendous. They had 100 total yards (-3 total rushing yds) in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming in week one. They then followed that up with a 24-13 pillowfight win over Duke at home last week. Congrats on winning a game that is about as entertaining as watching two retards hump a doorknob.

They also are going through a bit of a quarterback controversy, playing two guys and trying to figure out which one is better, a system that rarely pays dividends.

In the Duke win, UVA's special teams were terrible with bad snaps, fumbles, returned kicks, etc. If Duke hadn't missed three field goals of their own, who knows.

UNC got a week one win over I-AA James Madison and lost last week to East Carolina, a decent team. They at least showed some fight, as ECU needed a FG as time expired to win on their home turf, 34-31.

The UNC offense is capable and they will have the best player on the field in dynamic WR/KR/PR Brandon Tate, who scored three touchdowns, all on long receptions/returns, last week.

Prediction: UNC 31 Virginia 20

[jd08]

GL, with you on UNC. I think they will take care of UVA easily. Al Groh is on his way out of town.

[johnny white stripes]

GL MParris... i like the UCLA and UNC picks... btw i'm fsufanatic2000 from uc.. glad to see you guys are back and picking...