Current Kentucky Derby Contenders as of 3/24/08

[The Mailman]

Read the article here: Kentucky Derby Contenders

[NittanyLions94]

Just started looking at all the Derby preps the other day and going through a bunch of stuff. To me, Pyro looks like the horse to beat so far. Haven't gotten too deep in to it yet, but that's my early thought.

[CuseFan10]

War Pass has beaten Pyro handily at least twice hasn't he (I haven't looked it up yet but I can think of twice from memory I believe)? Once on a fast track and once on an off track at the Breeders Cup???

I'm personally throwing out War Pass's Tampa Derby race which I watched live on TVG, and chalking it up to a bad break (where he stumbled), and then reacting poorly to adversity and dirt in his face for the first time. If he breaks well, I still don't think he can be beaten and 7 to 1 looks like a gift right now. Next time he runs, maybe in the Bluegrass will be very telling and I'm going to bet at least a small number on him before that race (assuming he runs) because if he wins it the number is going to plummet again.

[birdsfan5]

IMO if War Pass can't handle trouble no way he will win the Derby. Pyro looks good. My top 10

1)Pyro
2)El Gato Malo
3)Z Humor
4)Visionaire
5)Elysium Fields
6)War Pass
7)Denis of Cork
8)Country Star
9)Z Fortune
10)Blackberry Road

[NittanyLions94]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

War Pass has beaten Pyro handily at least twice hasn't he (I haven't looked it up yet but I can think of twice from memory I believe)? Once on a fast track and once on an off track at the Breeders Cup???

Pyro looks to be much more ready for the Derby distance than War Pass, though. Can't look at the ~6f races and try to take them at face value.

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by NittanyLions94

Pyro looks to be much more ready for the Derby distance than War Pass, though. Can't look at the ~6f races and try to take them at face value.

Why does he look more ready?

[NittanyLions94]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

Why does he look more ready?

I always have somewhat of a bias against front-running horses in the Derby. In a 20 horse field, you need a good post draw and a perfect break to get to the front off the start and not get caught up in the traffic. War Pass is a horse that seems to need the lead and might have trouble if he is getting bumped with dirt being kicked in his face. Also, the race in which he was running Derby type fractions(the Champagne Stakes), he was tiring somewhat towards the end, and if that race was just another 1/8 or so longer, Pyro would have blown right past him. It will obviously depend on if there are other speed horses in the race to push War Pass for the early lead as to whether or not he can do a War Emblem on the field, but I just have trouble putting my money on a front-runner. Pyro has shown that he can navigate traffic and overcome somewhat of a bad trip, not to mention he has shown versatility in his running style, so he doesn't need to be in a certain spot to win a race.


Birds may have more, but that's why I like Pyro over War Pass, and will likely leave War Pass off of my exotics if he is the favorite on the morning line Derby day.

[birdsfan5]

Nittany I see it the same as you I dont like speed horses in the Derby. IMO they would be better off running War Pass at a mile. One thing about Pyro is the Fair Ground form in past years have not held up in the Derby. I love El Gato Malo, the only thing is he will not run on dirt till the Derby. Looks like War Pass will run in the Wood next, I hope he kills the field so he is overbet in the Derby. This 3 year old class is bad.

[CuseFan10]

Thanks guys. Good stuff.

[NittanyLions94]

Originally Posted by birdsfan5

Nittany I see it the same as you I dont like speed horses in the Derby. IMO they would be better off running War Pass at a mile. One thing about Pyro is the Fair Ground form in past years have not held up in the Derby. I love El Gato Malo, the only thing is he will not run on dirt till the Derby. Looks like War Pass will run in the Wood next, I hope he kills the field so he is overbet in the Derby. This 3 year old class is bad.

I haven't gotten the chance to study the PPs of all the horses quite yet or look at the races they've been in enough times to make a full judgment. I am usually partial to stalking horses in the Derby because a stretch runner can get let too far back to make up the distance and needs a perfect trip someimtes(See: Street Sense) while a front-runner can get run off by a rabbit placed in the race too easily. Stalking horses usually conserve enough and stay close enough to win(See: Barbaro, Curlin).


War Pass would be much better at a mile, much like Hard Spun a year ago. Hard Spun had fucking amazing cruising speed and could hold a lead very well, but just didn't have quite enough to make it the extra quarter and couldn't handle being caught up in the wash.