General horseracing questions

[hodown]

I see it's been a few years since the last post, hopefully the mods don't forget to check the forum eh? Anyway I'm new to the sport and tend to go to the track with some buds who are fairly knowledgeable and steer me in the right direction. I've also familiarized myself with the horseracing capping info from predictem. I took my limited knowledge to Sam Houston track last Saturday and achieved an 0'fer for the day. I've since put sone more time in trying to figure out how to improve and here's a list of criteria I look at and the order I look:

1. Beyer speed: I take the best and worst number and drop them and proceed to avg out the remaining scores. My intention is to start narrowing horses down.

2. Quirin points: I used this last weekend fairly extensively and found little value by itself. Horses that were ahead of the field by two or more were no more successful and most ofthe faster ones tended to die out at the finish. I feel I know who will start fast using this method but I still feel confused on how a race will finish.

3. Drop in class. Actually this is probably the first thing I look at.

4. Comparative times: I try to compare similar past races, and to calculate a horses time I'll assume each length is one second the horse is behind the leader. 5 lengths = 5 seconds. Not sure if this is right but it's what my buddy uses and he's a solid capper.

5. I pretty much have it narrowed down by now but I'll glance at trainers, jockeys, and perhaps training times to make a final decision if need be

This is my proposed plan of attack this Friday. I've been studying past books to test the strategy and I think I can narrow down some of te better horses but still struggle on predicting order of the top 3 or 4. If anyone has suggestions for me I'd very much appreciate it.

[Polar Ice]

I don't have any input or suggestions (I know, GTFO then) but curious if you're going to the Sam Houston Race Park in Houston off the Beltway. I've been there a couple times with some buddies on $0.50 beer night - good way to kill a Friday night w/out breaking the bank. Gonna have to make it out there a few times before it gets too damn hot.

Anway, last time I went the consensus "expert" picks (when they all predicted the same horse finishing 1st) actually got first place something like 6 out of the 9 races. Out of the 9 races, they actually had consensus picks on 7 of the races - so essentially they won 6 of 7. They didn't just pick the heaviest favorite either so it wasn't like the payouts were minimal. By the time my drunk ass caught on it was too late. I doubt that happens every time, but thought it was interesting.

On another side note, the gf and I went to the weinerdog races a while back. It was a little disappointing because you can't bet on em, but it makes the 30 min between horse races go a little faster.

Curious to see if your proposed system works - let us know and GL this weekend hodown

[Kevin]

I'll get ahold of Kenny and get you some answers.

Gimme a few days to work on this ;)

[bajadave]

This is what I use to do went I went to the ponies once a week for 3 years, yeap, three years.

1. Look at race amount, distance, dirt or turf
2. Is this horse experiences with the above mentioned. Add 1 pt for each
3. Take the most recent beyers (4) of them, take average. Add 3 pts for fasten, 2pts for second, 1 pt for third.
4. Looked for the condition of horse in thec last 3 races. If the horse maintained a 1st position for 2 furlongs 3 pts, 2nd position , 2pts , 3rd position 1 pt
5. I gave closers 3 points if they closed strong. Example 10th place to 5 place, or 8th to 3rd. If the hose moved up at least 5 hoses during the last 2 furlongs, he/she got the pts.

That's it guys, That’s how I lasted for 3 years on the track...............A course something was missing or I would of still be going every week, Now it just once a month to drinks some beers with some buddies and try my luck. This system took me about 4 hours to cap. Just need to understand money management a little better

[hodown]

Polar - yes on Sam Houston, I've been going a decent amount this winter. A consistent small loser every time out, but starting to get a feel.

Baja - I'll try that system out today and let you know how it goes. I'll be looking at Sam Houston and Delta Downs.

Appreciate the help guys...

[hodown]

Well I lost, again, but not much. Dave, I've gone back and capped two races using your system and it looks like it has teeth. Obviously, your probably already knew that but here's what I've found.

Since I find the actual betting part of horse racing just as difficult as picking winners, this experiment has two different options, both straight across the board.

Option 1: $2 quinella boxes containing the top 3 horses coupled with $1 trifecta boxes with the top 3 horses for a total of $12 wagered on each race. (Again, the top 3 horses from the system.)

Option 2: $2 quinella using only the top 2 horses coupled with $1 trifecta boxes with the top 3 horses for a total of $8 wagered on each race. Results as follows:

2/20 Sam Houston RP:
Option 1: $120 wagered; $170.60 total revenue; total profit $50.60; ROI 42%
Option 2: $80 wagered; $117.90 total revenue; total profit $37.90, ROI 47%

The system was more effective when not used for Maiden or Maiden Claiming races, where the horses results are more erratic. 4 races were subtracted off w/ the following results:

Option 1: $72 wagered, $127.70 total revenue; total profit $55.70; ROI 77%
Option 2: $48 wagered, $90.20 total revenue; total profit 42.20; ROI 88%

2/5 SHRP:
Option 1: $120 wagered; $349.20 total revenue; total profit $229.20; ROI 191%
Option 2: $80 wagered; $224.00 total revenue; total profit $144.00; ROI 180%

Dropping 3 Claiming and Maiden Claiming races
Option 1: $84 wagered; $336.00 total revenue; total profit $252.00; ROI 300%
Option 2: $56 wagered; $224.00 total revenue; total profit $168.00; ROI 300%

That's only two races and I have another book to look at, but not bad so far. $224 in revenue came from one trifecta in the 2/5 races which skews the results. However, several times the quinella for option 2 missed due to the third horse in the system winning the race, so attempting to key one of those top 3 horses may increase the ROI. I did not add the superfecta but a box would've hit on several occassions as well.

I may try to add "class" to the equation as well, because dropping horses tend to do well and rising horses tend to struggle, and sometimes the results were skewed due to this not be accounted for.

Just my two cents so far...

[bajadave]

Great information, Yes! I forgot to mention it works best with with proven horses that have raced at lest 5 or more races. Works best with 25,000 Claiming and above. For the condition factor give the horse a point factor for every furlong position. For example: At the start to first furlong, 3rd position = 1 pt. 2nd to 3rd furlong, 2nd place = 2 pts. 4th to 5th or finish , horse in in 3 place= 1 pt. total pionts 4 pts This horse is placed well and in condition. You'll find horses that get up to 9 pionts and they are usually front runners and that's okay. If everything else falls in place, beyers, class, plus condition, why not? I know its a bit confusing, maybe I can attach a example from the racing form.

OOH I forgot, I used this system for exactas and trifectas........

I forgot to mention..............its all coming back. I gave hoses moving up in class 1 point if it won its last race..................a winning horese should always be respected.
I would take a good look a horses dropping to see if they place them there for a quick hit, but most of the time, they have done poorly or been off for a while.

I also never take a first time anything, First on dirt, first time on grass, first time running on the track, first time running the distance, I think you understand what Im talking about. I know first time somethings do pops up on the first request. It just a rule that I have applied to myself.