One Game MLB Play-In Discussion...Padres vs. Rockies

[Hoosier]

i believe it's gonna be Peavy vs. Francis. IMO, the Rockies are a VERY good play here as i would think with Peavy going, it's gonna be darn near a pick. Francis is very, and i mean very good. this Rockies team is just downright scary to me. definite heavy lean to the Rockies right now...

thoughts?

[Hoosier]

the Rockies are apparently gonna use Fogg. this changes things up a bit, as i would think the Padres will be a slight fave behind Peavy. Fogg does not have good numbers vs. the Padres so it makes it kind of scary, but i'm still leaning towards the Rox

[CuseFan10]

Slight fave? The Padres will be -140 minimum is my guess and possibly as high as -160...

[NittanyLions94]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

Slight fave? The Padres will be -140 minimum is my guess and possibly as high as -160...

Opened at -148 and now down to -140 according to scoresandodds.com

[Hoosier]

i'm a little surprised at that price when you consider the Rox are the hottest team in baseball, playing at home and have all the momentum. i think the Pads being a slight fave is what it SHOULD be IMO. Peavy is a great pitcher but many of the Rockies have pretty hefty lifetime avgs against him. i really don't think Peavy will be able to shut down the opposing offense, and that's usually the only time i bet on Peavy and the Pads.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Hoosier

i'm a little surprised at that price when you consider the Rox are the hottest team in baseball, playing at home and have all the momentum. i think the Pads being a slight fave is what it SHOULD be IMO. Peavy is a great pitcher but many of the Rockies have pretty hefty lifetime avgs against him. i really don't think Peavy will be able to shut down the opposing offense, and that's usually the only time i bet on Peavy and the Pads.

But hasn't Peavy owned the Rox this year....1.2-something era? I thought it'd be -160 as well....

Although, I'd like to see Colorado make it in

[Hoosier]

JML, Peavy does have a 1.29 era in 2 starts vs. the Rox this yr, but both of them were in Petco Park in SD. he hasn't had to pitch in Coors yet this yr, and i don't care what anyone says about the humidor, Coors is still a big factor. i believe Holliday, Helton, and Hawpe all have hit very well vs. Peavy lifetime and i mean hitting over .400 against him. i just think the Rox will ride this emotion all the way into the playoffs.

[FlyersFan]

Peavy has been very very average in these playoff games/situations. he hasn't exactly made himself a name as a postseason ace. yeah, Peavy has a 1.26 vs. COL this year and has 2 no decisions. He is also 10-1 in his last 11 starts with a freeking tiny ERA. he has been lights out, but not in these situations in the past. I think the game is a crap shoot and i wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see COL win this one.

[BoilerBacker]

My early take on this is I like the fact that

a) Peavy pitched in the playoffs last year.
b) Peavy owned Colorado (although both at home) this year.
c) Fogg? You have to be kidding me. His ERA is almost 2 runs higher than Peavy and he rarely goes more than 6 innings. While he let SD only get one run in 5 INN in his last appearance, he let 10 guys get on base. 7 hits 3 BB. Never pitched in playoffs.

As of now, I am taking the fave Peavy and I rarely take faves....

GL

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

My early take on this is I like the fact that

a) Peavy pitched in the playoffs last year.
b) Peavy owned Colorado (although both at home) this year.
c) Fogg? You have to be kidding me. His ERA is almost 2 runs higher than Peavy and he rarely goes more than 6 innings. While he let SD only get one run in 5 INN in his last appearance, he let 10 guys get on base. 7 hits 3 BB. Never pitched in playoffs.

As of now, I am taking the fave Peavy and I rarely take faves....

GL

i thought somebody said it was francis? it's josh freeking fogg?....the foggmeister??....lmao...talk about scraping the barrel for a starter.....

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

i thought somebody said it was francis? it's josh freeking fogg?....the foggmeister??....lmao...talk about scraping the barrel for a starter.....

Yep... JOSH FOGG.

[FlyersFan]

taking the Under here. Fogg has given up 11 ER in his last 6 starts over 33 innings. He pitched very well vs. SDG a couple weeks ago. Peavy is peavy. SDG is shorthanded in the lineup as well.

[Stifler's Mom]

I think Hoosier has the right line of thought here.

Colorado will not be denied by Jake freakin Peavy, or anyone else IMO. They've won 15 of 16 or something like that to come from basically nowhere to earn this playoff game, and SD has been asking to be ejected from playoff contention for quite some time now IMHO. Unlike the Mets, they managed to squeak into a wildcard playoff. Never the less, the Rockies are hungry, while SD just looks "old" and "slow" to me.

Colorado is the better team, the hotter team, they are playing at home, and will find a way to win and get in the playoffs if you ask me. Momentum is a wonderful thing, especially when you can get it as a home dog. BTW, Fogg has been a very reliable starter for COL almost all season, and has done well for them down the stretch in September as well.

Oh yea, Peavy is 0-1 with an 18 ERA with over 5 days rest. He hasn't pitched since Sept 21. He also hasn't pitched at Coors field this year, and as I remember, Coors does funny things with your breaking pitches, as in makes them ineffective. Peavy relies on breaking pitches much more than Fogg, who is a sinkerballer....the type of pitcher who normally has success at Coors.

The line is a joke, made on the public perception of the pitchers alone. It's already been knocked down about 15 cents with the public action slightly on SD (currently 57%), a great indicator of early sharp money on COL.

Take a look at the hot and hungry team as a home dog

[NittanyLions94]

Josh Fogg is an ex-Pirate, and although I haven't seen him play at Coors yet I would imagine it would be comical. The dude is flat out BAD, and a huge pussy on top of that. He and Kip Wells in the same rotation was something to watch. Both were scared to pitch inside and got lit the F up for the majority of their tenure here. I really like the over in this one, but then again, I haven't bet much baseball this year.

[CuseFan10]

Game should be really fun and Colorado is great story. I'll be rooting for the Rockies, but I don't know how anyone can bet on Josh Fogg ever, nevermind versus Jake Peavy. It's kind of ironic - REALLY bad pitcher against a REALLY bad lineup, and then a REALLY good lineup against a REALLY good pitcher.

Troy Tulowitzki becomes a star today?