Close to guaranteed something or not - Sports Betting Forums

Horfin · #1 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 09:21 AM

Just wanted some opinions on this:

You could play:
1 unit on Colorado to win WS to win 3.75 units
1 unit on Arizona to win WS to win 4.5 units
1 unit on Cleveland to win WS to win 2.2 units
0 on Boston

If Boston wins, you lose 3 units
If Cleveland wins, you lose 0.8 units
-----------------------------------------
If Arizona Wins you are up 1.5 units
If Colorado wins you are up 0.75 units

Alternatively, you could bet
1 unit on National League to win 1.75 units
1 unit on Cleveland to win ws to win 2.2

If Boston wins you lose 2 units
If Cleveland wins you are up 1.2 unit
If Arz/Col wins you are up 0.75 units

Anyone have any thoughts on this.

Horfin

Horfin · #2 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 01:51 PM

Anyone????????????????

Stifler's Mom · #3 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 02:13 PM

I don't know, it seems a bit risky to lay 3 units just for Boston to NOT win the WS. It's almost like playing a prop "Will Boston win the WS" and taking NO for -300. Not exactly, but similar. I'm too much in a rush to think right now.

Maybe just play COL and CLE for a unit a piece. I like the chances of at least one of them getting there, if not both, and i'd think you have good hedging chances if only one gets there, while if both get there, you can't lose.

Beats me, lol

Stifler's Mom · #4 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 02:16 PM

BTW, I did this with Miami heat 2 NBA seasons ago (prior to the DET series win), but I got a much higher payout. Hedged with a small play on DAL (just to cover the original bet so I'd break even if DAL won), and was quite happy with the payout when Miami took it

I agree with your theory. Betting on faves to win championships has no value at all when you consider that you gotta lay how much juice for them to go thru 2 (or more) teams, depending when you make the wager....

Anyone even seen a prop like the one I mentioned above? If so, what was the price?

Horfin · #5 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 02:36 PM

Thu 10/11 7103 BOS wins World Series +116
8:35PM (EST) 7104 Field wins World Series -136

Horfin · #6 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 02:38 PM

Actually this is what I found:

Thu 10/11 7103 BOS wins World Series +116
8:35PM (EST) 7104 Field wins World Series -136
Thu 10/11 7107 CLE wins World Series +300
8:35PM (EST) 7108 Field wins World Series -360
Thu 10/11 7111 ARI wins World Series +480
8:35PM (EST) 7112 Field wins World Series -660
Thu 10/11 7119 COL wins World Series +415
8:35PM (EST) 7120 Field wins World Series -525
Thu 10/11 7299 NL team wins World Series +185
8:35PM (EST) 7300 AL team wins World Series -225

5dimes...I'll find the guaranteed money in theresomewhere.

yomonte · #7 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 04:02 PM

Alot of Value in the field at -136

BoilerBacker · #8 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 07:02 PM

Take the dogs in both AL and NL

Ariz +118 one unit
Cle +160 one unit

Take the favs in the series

Boston +116 one unit
Col +415 one unit

Ariz wins, Bos wins..... +.18 units then hedge Boston series play with Ariz in World Series to guarantee winning

Cle wins, Col wins...... +.60 units then hedge Col series play with Cle in World Series to guarantee winning

Ariz wins, Cle wins ..... +2.78 units then lose 2 units in series for +.78 total

Bos wins, Col wins..... -2 units then add a couple of units or so to Boston in the series.
If Col wins you break even...roughly, If Bos wins you lose the 3 units (Ariz, Cle and Col) but try to win back the 3 with the original one unit on Bos, plus the two or so added.

About as close as I can figure it....