MLB Thursday 10-18

[cavorca12]

Haven't posted an MLB play, hence no record, but I am a huge baseball fan and keep up with it due to fantasy to a fault, lol. I've played 4 or 5 post season games but haven't tracked units. Probably sitting close to even or a hair below.

Boston at Cleveland Under 8 (+105) -- 1.5 Units

I really like this play a lot despite a low total of just 8 runs. Cle P's have figured out how to pitch Bos, [I]get ahead[I]. Sabathia hasn't been himself this post season, and threw a 1st pitch strike only 54% of the time in GM 1 compared to 64% in regular season (well above league avg is 58%). Beckett has pitched...well, I can't think a word that describes how good he really has been. Every stat/split/number is see is great on him, and I haven't come accross a single thing that makes me think he gives up more than 2 R tonight considering the importance of this game. In fact, almost everything I've come accross indicates this is a great situation for him. Back to CC to close this out. He has had 1 regular season start v Bos in 07 and 1 in 06. His line on those games:
07 in Cle - 7.0 IP 5 H 1 ER 7 K 0 BB (Bos won 1-0)
06 at Bos - 8.0 IP 10 H 1 ER 8 K 1 BB (Cle won 6-3)
Besides the 10 H, it's all gravy. Mentally, you have to think he is itching to get back to his typical level and close out Bos at home. I think it's likely enough that both Beckett and Sabathia pitch well enough to keep it under, despite the off's, that there is some pretty good value on this. No real strong lean on a side, but if forced, I'd ride the hot team with the chance to close at home in Cle. Even though it'll be extremely tough v Beckett, everything I've said makes me lean to the underdog line value.

BOL to everyone tonight! Hopefully it's an close, low scoring, and entertaining game, lol.

[cavorca12]

A push..... That really eats me up too, because I had something exactly like this square in the middle of my analysis:

"Both bullpens have been great thus far, a big plus that adds more value to the under IMO since I believe the SP's show up and don't give up much."

I deleted it immediately after I wrote it to not jinx the under. Sure enough, Cle bullpen gives up exactly enough.... Sabathia wasn't super great, but he was definitely good enough. Beckett was an absolute stud pitching another gem (8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 11 K -- wow).

I guess I learned a valuable lesson, though. From now on, I'll still completely delete my jinxes, and then put them back in. That way, the jinx is jinxed and it's nullified, lol.....