Cavorca WS Game 1

[cavorca12]

Game 1: Colorado at Boston

Boston -1.5 (-120)
2.5 Units
1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-125)
1.5 Units
Under 8.5 (Even)
1 Unit

Parlay Colorado ML and Under 8.5 (+500)
0.5 Unit


Going with Bos for game 1, and I completely agree with Stiff on the under play , which is in my reasoning below. Only way Col wins is in a low scoring game IMO, so I took advantage of the huge Col ML by parlaying it with the under for the game as a little hedge. Wasted way too much time today playing around with plays and figuring out the best combo, so I'm sure that means Col will win, 5 or more runs early, and more than 8 runs for the game...

--- Beckett has been flat out dominating. I discount the interleague start v Col, because his curve wasn't there. It's his best and most important pitch, and it wasn't working that day. It's a drastically better now, so as long as he hasn't lost it.....
--- 8 day layoff is a big deal IMO.
--- 40 degree weather after layoff is a huge deal. I've played in low 50 weather, and it is miserable. You get stiff and have some trouble running, and hitting is a chore. I can't imagine going from playing in whatever Col was, taking 8 days off, and then going to Bos and playing in the low 40s. IMO a big disadvantage.
--- Which leads into... Cold is bad in general for hitting, but IMO it hurts Col more than Bos. Col has hit .242 in the playoffs, and relying on clutch hitting only goes so far. Facing Beckett as he's pitched his L3, it could be a long night.
--- Bos hit .285 v lefties in regular season, near .300 recently, and were able to hit Sabathia. Francis has been pitching well, but I think Bos can score some on him.

Basically, Col is on a great streak, but IMO this isn't a good situation. Just trying to take it one game at a time, so I won't even touch the series. And I probably won't touch baseball again if Col wins in an Over...

BOL to everyone tonight!

[cavorca12]

Well, Bos hit ok..... Col's pitching might just be overmatched, and Bos is just hot on offense. I'm sure the O/U's will be double digits here on out, but man, the over will be tempting to ride. Col's offense has to come around at some point, right???