~~ BIFF'S BASES - MAR. 31st ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Very excited for the season to start. I got my first win under my belt thanks to Rich Harden in Tokyo, but I had not set up baseball bankroll yet, so it will not count.

My money management system for baseball is simple. I start with a $30K bankroll for the season. I wager a 1% base bet on each game. Each time my bankroll rises or drops 10% I adjust the base bet amount. That 10% amount increases as the bankroll gets bigger and decreases as the bankroll gets smaller as do the bets. I keep track of my current bankroll as well as the next amount need to reach/drop to the next level. So good luck this year guys, let's make some money!


For today...

LAA @ MIN

-I know spring means very little, and team stats are about 30% from players not even on the roster, but there are some implications in this game I can't ignore. Weaver has been lights out going holding opponents to a .210 OPB%. The Twins on the other hand were one of the worst hitting teams this spring. Last in the AL in OBP% and 2nd to last in the AL in SLG%. Lots of young free swingers. Here's some BB/K ratios. Delmon Young 2/12. Chris Gomez 3/13. Brendan Harris 3/12.

-This team has 5 new players in the starting lineup (3B - Lamb, SS- Everett, 2B - Harris, LF - Young, CF - Gomez) and I read half of them couldn't find their way to the field yesterday when they went to see it for the first time. I think it should take a couples weeks or so for this new team to get acquainted to the new layout, making it very easy for the Angels to jump on the out the gates. Despite Harris and Young playing in a dome last year, I have a feeling things will be ugly for Ronny G and the Twins until they fully mesh this young team together.

-Torii Hunter will be making a quick return to the Metrodome where he's was an icon out in center. He was a big reason that this team was an attractive home underdog the past couple years. Now he's on the other team.

- A tough pitchers park that can take power away from Morneau, Lamb, Kubel, and Mauer. This team is just not built for this stadium in my opinion. Kubel isn't the DH today however, Monroe is. Another big K guy they picked up who's slipped the past couple years.

-Livan Hernandez might be the Twins’ worst Opening Day starter in over 20 years. How he's gotten 8 opening day starts in 10 years is an implication of the non-contending teams that implore his services. He has been a work horse however, and that's exactly what the Twins need with Santana and Silva gone. I'm just not convinced he's got another good year in him. He's dropped his last 4 openers, and playing the Angels 1st 5 Innings RL might not be a bad idea at even money, but I'm keeping it simple for day 1. I picked up this line late morning, but I see it below -140 at most offshore books still. The line opened at -140 I believe.



MARCH 31st


LOS ANGELES ANGELS (-130)


*RISKING $390 to win $300


--


Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $30,000

1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

[Biff_Tannen]

Rough loss today. 3-2 win for the Twins. I think the Angels were way too anxious at the plate, but hell I guess I have to hand it to Livan because Weaver was the one leaving them high and over the plate. If Napoli threw out 1 of the 4 runners that swiped bags, that would have helped also. Still, that's why I take it nice and easy through these first few weeks. Back tomorrow.


--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,610

1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

ML Favorites (0-1) -$390
>1st 5 Innings (0-0) +$0
>>Home (0-0) +$0
>>Away (0-1) -$390

ML Underdogs (0-0) +$0
>1st 5 Innings (0-0) +$0
>>Home (0-0) +$0
>>Away (0-0) +$0

RL Favorites (0-0) +$0
>1st 5 Innings (0-0) +$0
>>Home (0-0) +$0
>>Away (0-0) +$0

RL Underdogs (0-0) +$0
>1st 5 Innings (0-0) +$0
>>Home (0-0) +$0
>>Away (0-0) +$0

Totals Under (0-0) +$0
>1st 5 Innings (0-0) +$0

Totals Over (0-0) +$0
>1st 5 Innings (0-0) +$0

2-Team ML Parlays (0-0) +$0

[V3r1f13d]

The Angels have NO plate discipline. They haven't had any for the last couple of years. Micky Hatcher is extremely aggresive, but it goes hand in hand with Mike's style as well.

That's why its so frustrating when we play Oakland.

[Biff_Tannen]

Oakland aside, they make Livan Hernandez look like a #1 pitcher today. Mark my words, Livan is going to get CRUSHED in the American League this year. His stuff today was junk and if you just don't swing then you're okay. Get ahead in the count and make him put that junk into a nice grapefruit over the plate and you're in business. The Angels just had to swing, and hence they drew 0 walks and hit all those ground balls. It was NOT the late breaking action of his 59 MPH curveball. Good luck this year Verified. If Lackey and Escobar don't start tossing some shut outs soon, I think the Angels might have trouble this year to hold off Seattle/Texas... and yes even Oakland.