MLB Bullpen System

[Billy Barooooooo]

By: LT Profits Sports Group
We have always felt they bullpens have been undervalued when setting betting lines in baseball, and our three-year study on this subject helps confirm this, although the oddsmakers are starting to catch up. One could have blindly averaged nearly 100 units of profit the last three seasons by blindly betting top bullpens against those not in the top 10 in pen ERA, as long as the top pen was not heavy chalk.

We have always felt that if you only bet on quality bullpens, you should virtually always have winning seasons in Major League Baseball.
Bullpens the key to winning MLB handicapping

This is because baseball betting lines have always been based mostly on starting pitchers, while the bullpens have been undervalued. Well, we decided to go back and put out theory to the test over the last three years, and even we were pleasantly surprised with the results. It has almost gotten to the point that we could simply stop handicapping baseball altogether starting May 1 and strictly play the bullpen angle.

There is one factor holding us back from doing that however. While the results from last season were excellent by most standards, they actually showed the smallest profit of our three-year study. Thus, we could say that perhaps the oddsmakers have found their errors in their ways of the past, and that they are starting to incorporate bullpens into the lines a bit more adequately. The pens still look undervalued, just not as undervalued as they used to be. Thus, we would not recommend abandoning other baseball handicapping methods just yet, as they may take center stage again in the next few years.

For now though, we are confident that our bullpen angle will have another profitable angle this season. For starters, here are the results of simply betting on every team that is in the top 10 in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA entering each day’s play for the last three seasons, from May 1 through the end of the regular season:

ALL Top 10 Pen ERA Teams (Starting 5/1)

Year W L Pct Units
2007 727 646 52.9% 40.20
2006 752 623 54.7% 67.52
2005 740 635 53.8% 59.84

So by doing absolutely no handicapping whatsoever, one could have picked up an average of +55.9 units per season the last three years by just betting on the top 10 bullpens from May 1 onward! This is certainly a nice starting point that will be greatly improved on with a couple of easy filters, which we are about to get into.

First of all, betting on every top 10 bullpen ERA team would mean making 10 MLB plays on days with full schedules when none of those top pens are facing each other. While having a high volume like that is good for sampling purposes, it is not optimal from a betting perspective, especially when the profit could be increased greatly while playing fewer plays with two very basic tighteners.

First of all, we would pass on any game when two top 10 bullpen teams face each other. We toyed with the idea of always taking the underdog in such circumstances, but the results were not to our liking. Secondly, while a top 10 bullpen team would be an automatic play as an underdog of any price vs. a non-top 10 pen team, when the top pen is favored, we found the best cut-off point to be only favorites of less than -130 (i.e., up to -129). Take a look at the three-year results now:

Top 10 Pen ERA vs. Non-Top 10 Pen ERA
As Dogs or as Favorites < -130 (Starting May 1)

Year W L Pct Units
2007 375 400 48.4% 76.24
2006 399 383 51.0% 112.08
2005 387 392 49.7% 104.70


We now have a strategy that could stand alone starting in May, although we will not go that route personally, continuing to use other methods also. The three-year average of +97.7 units in five months is certainly impressive, but as we said earlier, the distribution has us thinking the bookmakers are catching on. Now most people would be happy with 76.2 units, and we would certainly take it, but last season was a bit disappointing after two seasons over 100 units.

It is interesting that the winning percentages were under 50 percent in two of the years and a nondescript 51 percent the third year, but that is the beauty of playing primarily underdogs with a few small favorites sprinkled in.

Now obviously, this system does not kick in until May so that the bullpens can accumulate a full month of actual data, but it is always fun to project who the best bullpens in each league will be. We feel that the Toronto Blue Jays will have that honor in the American League, thus making them a nice sleeper future play in a division that has the Yankees and Red Sox, and that the San Diego Padres will lead the National League, making them our pick to win the West.

The Blue Jays finished second in bullpen ERA behind Boston in the American League last season, but they were without their projected closed BJ Ryan all year. He has progressed nicely this spring though, and he will make the Toronto pen virtually unhittable if he comes anywhere close to his old form.

As for the Padres, their bullpen is comprised of the all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman and a bunch of competent set-up men that all have differing styles, an approach that has made that pen very successful for several years now, leading the National League in bullpen ERA last season after finishing second in that category in 2006.

[Biff_Tannen]

I didn't know where to post this, so I'm dropping it here. I'm sure LT profits system is respectable, and mine is similar but different. It doesn't create picks, however it works as a filtering system.

One thing I've done in the past is create a "Do Not Bet List." These are bullpens that are below their respective AL/NL league averages in both OBP% and SLG% in both the past year as well as this year. It is a known fact that teams rely on their bullpens close to 100% more than they did 20 years ago. This is a different game these days, and over 30% of games are won/lost by bullpens each year. I focus on OBP% and SLG%, because they are more accurate in ranking a pitcher than ERA and W/L records. Bill James has made it a proven fact, and it makes sense to me.

While bullpens have been getting more effective (less runs allowed) over the past decade, there is always a "bottom of the barrel." Now cutting out these few teams from your betting repertoire will only increases your chances of making money each season. Making money off these teams over the course of the season is harder to do than it's worth. Plus this allows you to cut down on the list of teams to keep tabs on each day. Now obviously this list will change especially early on, but here's the current list of teams...

\/ \/ \/ DO NOT BET LIST \/ \/ \/
(Active between 4/6 - 4/12)

Pittsburgh Pirates (2-3) -.26 Units
Houston Astros (2-4) -1.07 Units
San Francisco Giants (1-4) -2.59 Units
Detroit Tigers (0-5) -8.42 Units

2008 Combined Record (5-16) = 24% // -12.34 Units

You would need to have an average line of +320 on each game just to break even on betting on each game for each of these teams so far this year. I will keep track of this average line, usually update it weekly. This average line will drop/change, as will the teams on this list. For 2008 there are 10 potential teams that can grace this list as based on their 2007 performance. There are 6 other possible teams that can be on this list this year, but as of now are not. They are...

New York Yankees (2-3)
Tampa Bay Rays (3-1)
Baltimore Orioles (3-1)
Chicago White Sox (3-2)
Philadelphia Phillies (2-3)
Cincinnati Reds (3-2)

2008 Combined Record (16-12) = 57%

You would need to have an average line of -133 or better on each game just to break even if you bet on each game for each of these teams this year. I usually don't much weight in this line because this is a larger set of teams, and they do in fact have a winning record as of now. The ones that keep a winning record usually never make it to the banned list. However, these teams are good to keep in mind, because they are the potential teams to slip on to the do not bet list.

--

Heres the full list of the 10 potential teams this year with their records last year.

New York Yankees (94-68)
Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
Baltimore Orioles (69-93)
Chicago White Sox (72-90)
Philadelphia Phillies (89-73)
Cincinnati Reds (72-90)
Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)
Houston Astros (73-89)
San Francisco Giants (71-91)
Detroit Tigers (88-74)

2007 Combined Record = (762-858) = 47%

You would need an average line of +113 to make money when betting each game for each of these 10 teams last year. Now you may think, with 7 of the 10 being losing teams, that should be highly possible with a lot of underdog lines. Well here are how each team did as an underdog based on a $100 bet for each game they were given plus points last year on the ML. (The lines used were from BetUS) ... (The bolded teams were the teams that were on the list to end last year.)

New York Yankees -$530
Tampa Bay Rays -$1695
Baltimore Orioles -$1809
Chicago White Sox -$820
Philadelphia Phillies -$160
Cincinnati Reds -$540
Pittsburgh Pirates -$1675
Houston Astros -$1420
San Francisco Giants -$390
Detroit Tigers +$595

You can see the only team on that list that actually made money as a dog last year was the Tigers. Now you would think to kick them off the list, but these teams usually end up being some of the most overvalued the following year. Other teams that won as dogs last year... Toronto, Arizona, Seattle, Mets, Washington, and Colorado. Pretty good list of hyped teams this year (maybe minus the Nationals) that could fall flat on their face.

--

The do not bet list from last year did not have all 10 of the teams this year, because that list factored in the 2006 statistics as well. At the end of the year last year this was the list I had. These were teams that were below the average in both 2006 and at the end of 2007.

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
Baltimore Orioles (69-93)
Chicago White Sox (72-90)
Philadelphia Phillies (89-73)
Cincinnati Reds (72-90)

*The Giants (71-91) were on it most of the year, they were a border team that kept going on and off.

2007 Combined Record (439-533) = 45% (*including the Giants)

All with losing records as underdogs. I made them bold in the list above.
(Only the Phillies and Rays made money as favorites last year of the 10 potentail do not bet teams this year.)


--

So for what it's worth, I will be practicing this again this year, and I invite you to critique it, offer suggestions, or join with me. I have seen this have value over the past couple years, as teams with bad bullpens will never make you money over the course of a season. The odds of trying to pick the games that they will win is much harder, and are a common source of headaches. Each year the list only produces about 10-12 potential teams, but that's potentially 10 teams that I don't have to look at each day there's a full card, and I can also use the information as a shorthand on which teams to potentially fade as big favorites.

I know it was a long read, but I hope I made enough points to make it clear why this is a good thing to add to your betting strategy. Simply but every little system you can add to your betting strategy, the more games you filter out, the better chance you have of making that money each season. Comments and questions always welcome. Good Luck!

** I WILL UPDATE THE DO NOT BET LIST EACH WEEK. NEXT UPDATE COMING ON 4/12.

[Biff_Tannen]

** 4/12 UPDATE **

The four teams that were on the list last week from 4/5-4/12 went a combined 8-15 this past week.
If you base bet $100 against the each of the 4 teams in each game they played you would have made $640 this past week. Not a bad lump of change. I'll keep track of the combined W-L records of the teams as well as the change in units won/lost week by week.

4/06 - 4/12 => (8-15) -6.40 Units
4/13 - 4/19 =>


Technically, both the Pirates and the Tigers bullpens have squeaked into the upper half of the league in terms of either OBP% or SLG% and cleared their name for at least a week. They are both right on the border, so they still should not be trusted. Four of teams that did bad last year and are possible teams to put on the list are also in the top 5 teams in terms of OPS% this year, (Tampa, Cincy, Baltimore, Philly) all are off to hot starts. If they all have turned a bottom feeder bullpen into a quality one, well then maybe it's good I'm not filtering them out. However, if they start slipping like I think they will, they'll make for good value betting against due to their hot starts. I use this to spot out teams who have not fixed their problems, and it works beautifully. As for the list for this week 4/13 - 4/19 there are only two teams officially on the DO NOT BET LIST. The records listed below are their season records.

DO NOT BET LIST
(Active 4/13 - 4/19)

1) HOUSTON ASTROS (4-8) -3.85 Units
2) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (4-8) -3.28 Units


Border teams on the list last week.... I would still consider them highly dangerous.

1) PITTSBURGH PIRATES (5-6) -0.32 Units
2) DETROIT TIGERS (2-9) -11.29 Units


That's the update for this week boys. Back next Saturday night to update the list.

[Daws1089]

thanks biff. This is great info for every bettor. I will certainly consider it although i have the pirates as a play today

[Biff_Tannen]

Thanks Daws! Trying to help out who wants to be helped.


** 4/19 UPDATE **

I'm changing the name of this list from DO NOT BET to BULLPEN FADE. I realize this system is much more profitable if you just fade the teams instead of avoiding betting on them.

The two teams that were on the list last week from 4/12-4/19 went a combined (5-8) this past week. They were the Giants and Astros. That makes 2 for 2 in terms of profitable weeks fading the teams on this list.

If you base bet $100 against both teams this past week in each game they played you would have made $212. I'll keep track of the combined W-L records of the teams as well as the units won/lost week by week based on the teams that were on this list retrospective to the dates listed. Here's the updated results including Week 2.

4/06 - 4/12 => (8-15) -6.40 Units
4/13 - 4/19 => (5-8) -2.12 Units
4/20 - 4/26 => ??


Good News Action Seekers! Both the Pirates and the Tigers bullpens have slipped back on the list. This week there will be four teams to fade. They are Houston, San Francisco, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. You'll notice that all four of these teams are having losing seasons and have lost bettors money. Coincidence? I think not.

(The records listed below are their season records.)

BULLPEN FADE LIST
(Active 4/20 - 4/26)

1) HOUSTON ASTROS (6-17) -6.28 Units
2) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (7-12) -2.97 Units
3) PITTSBURGH PIRATES (7-10) -1.61 Units
4) DETROIT TIGERS (6-12) -9.95 Units


Tampa Bay and Baltimore don't seem to be joining the list anytime soon. They've got two of the top pens so far this year. O's seem to be more reliable with Sherrill closing things down... and the Rays name change is obviously the reason for their early success. Not really any border teams of the other 6 possible fade teams. As of now, they've turned the corner this year... good for them. I don't expect the list to ever be bigger than 5 teams, but if I had to guess which of the remaining 6 teams would be next to join the list I'd say either the Reds or Yankees.

Back with another update after the games on the 26th. I will start keeping track on this system in my signature. I will not post these plays in my thread, but if there is one more week of profits, I will start blind betting this system with $100 units. I invite you to join me. Good Luck!

[Biff_Tannen]

** 4/26 UPDATE **

Well, not a good week for the system. Houston and Detroit each went a tear offensively. Seeing as they have two of the best offensive lineups in their respective leagues, that'll happen. The system is now in a net loss of $23 for buck bettors.

I'm not discouraged by the profits from the first two weeks being wiped out this past week. This is a system built to show profits over the course of a season, not from week to week.


If you base bet $100 against both teams this past week in each game they played you would have lost $875. I'll keep track of the combined W-L records of the teams as well as the units won/lost week by week based on the teams that were on this list retrospective to the dates listed. Here's the updated results including Week 3. These are the records of the teams faded, not the system. The system is just the polar opposite. I'm not factoring in juice although I should. However, the lines I'm using are unfortunately closing lines, so with movement, there's no way to track juice off the original opening line.

4/06 - 4/12 => (8-15) -6.40 Units
4/13 - 4/19 => (5-8) -2.12 Units
4/20 - 4/26 => (17-10) +8.75 Units
4/27 - 5/3 => ??

TEAM TOTAL = (30-33) +0.23 Units


SYSTEM = (33-30) -0.23 Units

--

Here's the updated fade list for this week.

(The records listed below are their season records.)

BULLPEN FADE LIST
(Active 4/27 - 5/3)

1) HOUSTON ASTROS (12-13) +0.44 Units
2) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (11-14) -0.63 Units
3) PITTSBURGH PIRATES (9-15) -4.92 Units


Detroit has cleared it's name for the list just barely. With their offense heating up, that may be a blessing in disguise.

Back with another update after the games on the 3rd.

[Meestermike]

It's time to play this profile... bet any Top 10 bullpen ERA team beginning May 1 as an underdog of any price or as a favorite less than -130 if they are not playing another top 10 bullpen ERA team. If two top 10s face each other, pass the game.

Today May 2nd...

CWS +110
TB +162
CIN +111

Pass on NYM as ARZ is rated 2nd and the Mets are 9th. Also FLO & LAD as they are rated 5th & 6th

Yesterday May 1st ....

OAK +100 W
PHI -105 W

YTD = 2-0 +$200.00

[gsad]

Shouldn't Florida and LAD be played as well

Florida -128 5th vs SD 25th

LAD +102 6th @ Col 12th

WSox 10th playing Toronto 7th

[Meestermike]

Here are the top 10 bullpen ERA's as of May 1st...

1  	Tampa Bay   2.43 
2 	Arizona 	2.58 
3 	Philadelphia 	2.59 
4 	Oakland 	2.80 
5 	Toronto 	3.09 
6 	LA Dodgers 	3.14 
7 	Florida 	3.18 
8 	Cincinnati 	3.34 
9 	NY Mets 	3.40 
10      Chi. White Sox 	3.43

CWS & TOR should have been a no play as they are 5th & 10th respectively

FLO was fluctuating around the -130 mark pretty much most of the day so I laid off.

LAD price changed 27 times at Pinnacle today but they should have been a play under the system.

LAD -112 W won 11-6
FLO -125 W won 6-4
TB +143 L lost 3-7
CIN +106 L lost 0-2

[Meestermike]

Here are the top 10 bullpen ERA's as of May 2nd...

1       Tampa Bay   	2.42  	 
2 	Arizona 	2.49 	
3 	Philadelphia 	2.67 	
4 	Oakland 	2.74 	
5 	LA Dodgers 	3.01 	
6 	Toronto 	3.09 	
7 	Florida 	3.18 	
8 	Cincinnati 	3.27 	
9 	NY Mets 	3.29 	
10 	Chi. White Sox 	3.43

Today's tilts are:
962 Florida Marlins +138
963 Cincinnati Reds +126
965 Los Angeles Dodgers -105
973 Tampa Bay Rays +145

No plays on NYM at ARZ; CWS at TOR; PHI = price too high; OAK = Price too high

YTD
4-2 +$200.00

[Meestermike]

Top 10 Bullpen ERA's as of May 4th

SEE 'EM ALL HERE

1       Arizona         2.41
2 	Philadelphia 	2.68
3 	Oakland 	2.75
4 	Tampa Bay 	2.79
5 	LA Dodgers 	2.99
6 	Toronto 	3.02
7 	Florida 	3.14
8 	Chi. White Sox 	3.29
9 	Minnesota 	3.33
10 	St. Louis 	3.63

Yesterday 1-3 -$200.00
YTD : 4-4 $0.00

TODAY MAY 4th:

FLO +100
LAD +105
ARZ +110
STL -114
TB +105
MIN -110

No Plays = PHI - Line too high; OAK line too high; CWS & TOR both in the top 10

NOTE...

* MIN up to 9th place
* STL in 10th
* NYM dropped to 11th
* CIN dropped to 14th

[Meestermike]

Top 10 Bullpen ERA's as of May 4th

SEE 'EM ALL HERE

1	Arizona	       2.43
2	Oakland	           2.66
3	Philadelphia	   2.69
4	Tampa Bay        2.95
5	Toronto	             2.96
6	LA Dodgers        3.07
7	Florida               3.13
8	Minnesota          3.22
9	Chi. White Sox    3.29
10	Baltimore           3.56

Yesterday 3-3 0.00
FLO +100 W
LAD +105 L
ARZ +110 L
STL -114 W
TB +105 L
MIN -110 W

YTD : 7-7 $0.00

TODAY'S ONE FIASCO MAY 5th:

LAD -127

No Plays ... PHI ~ ARZ both in the top 10; CWS ~ TOR both in the top 10; BAL ~ OAK both in the top 10;

NOTE...

* MIN up to 8th place
* BAL IN AT 10TH
* STL DOWN TO 12TH

[Meestermike]

Top 10 Bullpen ERA's as of May 5th

SEE 'EM ALL HERE

1	Oakland	        2.67
2	Arizona	        2.74
3	Philadelphia	2.82
4	Toronto	        2.91
5	Tampa Bay	2.95
6	LA Dodgers      2.99
7	Florida	        3.13
8	Minnesota	3.22
9	Chi. White Sox	3.28
10	St. Louis	3.45

Yesterday 1-0 +1.00
LAD -127

YTD : 8-7 $100.00

TODAY MAY 6th:

FLO -102
STL -104
LAD -130 (* borderline on edge of no play. depends on the line you receive)

No Plays...PHI ~ ARZ both in the top 10; TAM ~ TOR both in the top 10; MIN ~ CWS both in the top 10; OAK line too high;

[Billy Barooooooo]

Is today LA and FLo?
Thanks

[Meestermike]

Originally Posted by Billy Barooooooo

Is today LA and FLo?
Thanks

Sorry BB. Been hectic today.

Yes LAD was a play at -116 but it lost.

FLO was also a play at -110. It won

May 7th results 1-1 -$16.00

Top 10 Bullpen ERA's as of May 6th

SEE 'EM ALL HERE

1	Oakland	        2.62
2	Arizona	        2.67
3	Philadelphia	2.71
4	Toronto	        2.81
5	LA Dodgers	2.85
6	Tampa Bay	2.86
7	Florida	        3.12
8	Chi. White Sox	3.25
9	Minnesota	3.34
10	Baltimore	3.45

May 6th Results 2-0 +$200.00
FLO -102 W
STL -104 W
LAD -130 (no play)

YTD incl. May 7th:

11-8 +$284.00