~~ BIFF'S BASES - APR. 8th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

I'm straying away from my usual ML bets tonight to take on one total and one rare 1st 5 Innings RL. I'm going with the Over in the CIN/MIL game. These two teams didn't have one total set under 9 last year in their many meetings. I think that was for a reason. They are offensive minded teams that have never relied on their bullpen. I think the Brewers are swinging well, and neither Suppan or Cueto had good springs. Cueto may have put up 10 K's in his first outting, but that was at home against a Arizona when there was no report on him. Now the Brewers have at least one official game to look at him, and he's on the road this time as well. Easy opportunity to slip up off his stellar debut. I guess this one looks too easy, but I got the line last night at plus odds, and I will pay the price to learn a lesson in this game, because I can easily see both teams scoring 4 runs.

I'm also going against Gaudin today in his first start. Due to some injury situations with Duchsherer and Harden, they rushed Gaudin on the plane yesterday so he can pitch today. He was schedule to make another rehab assignment tomorrow, and join the team in Cleveland this weekend. He only tossed 2 innings in the spring, and has only made one official rehab start in a AAA scrimmage game that he did not do well in. I think he's going to get pummeled by this Blue Jays team who is swing good enough to sweep the Red Sox. I'm not laying big chalk for awhile, and I think it is much safer to go 1st 5 Innings in this one, because if the A's do come back, it'll probably be late when the deeper parts of the Jays pen emerge. The A's pen isn't too shabby themselves and could keep a close game. The RL for the full game is +120, but I think this bet hitting is about twice as likely, so I'm taking the Jays to have the lead after the first 5 innings with some juice. I realize this is an option that might not be offered at some books, so If you don't mind laying the -175 then feel free.


APRIL 8th


REDS/BREWERS - OVER 8½ (+105)

*RISKING $300 to win $315


TORONTO BLUE JAYS -½ [1st 5 Inn.] (-130)

*RISKING $390 to win $300


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,250


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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April ML Record (6-6) -$405
April RL Record (0-0) +$0
April O/U Record (0-1) -$345

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GOOD LUCK!

[cavorca12]

GL on the Jays, you still have a shot with the Jays as Gaudin just gave up 3 more.

Seeing you on the over made me think a little harder on adding to my under, even at +120... Got my stats from ESPN. Just go to the MLB section, then click on the 'Teams' link near the top. From the next page, just click on team whose stats you want, and it has both regular and spring training stats going back multiple years. Just checked MLB, and I'd say you're stuff is probably right. Maybe ESPN only goes through a certain point in spring training. Good to know though, looks like MLB is the better source for the spring stats.

[cavorca12]

Thanks Biff, and GL tomorrow. Just keep doing your thing.

[Biff_Tannen]

Things could not have gotten any crazier in that Blue Jays game. Alls I needed was for AJ Burnett to not suck as much as Gaudin was already going to, but he coudn't resist. As for that Reds/Brewers game, I'm not sure I learned my lesson. I think if they have that same matchup again I'd play the over again given it was the same line. Those two starters went both went longer than I thought they would thanks to their low pitch counts, and the bullpens didn't really get much of a chance to come in and screw things up. Suppan was getting hit, the balls just weren't dropping... for either team, and it allowed them to stay in longer. Since it's already tomorrow, time to forget these games, just a bad day early in the season. I may start going back to 1 play a day until I get on some sort of roll. And I will get on a roll.



--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $28,560


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (6-6) -$405
April RL Record (0-1) -$390
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645

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