~~ BIFF'S BASES - APR. 10th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

I actually am liking the early games a lot today. However, I'm only putting in one play as of now.

In the Mariners/Rays matchup, I have to laugh when I seen Jackson as a favorite. With this guys track record, he never deserves to be a favorite, let alone against the Mariners. I'm not to hot on Bastista either, but I did some looking and Jackson has been a favorite 8 times since joining the Rays in 2006. All of them coming at home obviously, and the Rays record in those games is 1-7. The over in those games is 5-3, and I think I might like that bet more with the Mariners pen still in disarray w/o Putz.

I also like Harang getting even money against any team. This guy continues to be undervalued somehow. The only thing holding me back is the fact that the Brewers have hit .300 off him the past 3 seasons, and he is much better at home, and at night. Reds pen has some solid pitchers set up to go today, but Brewers are swinging as good as any team in the league. I think I have to let this fish go.

For the game that I am playing, it might not even start. The Braves/Rockies game is looking to be in freezing weather w/ 20 mph winds coming in from left field. Sprinkle some snow in the equation and this should be a miserable day for batters. Cold weather not only makes the ball denser, it also makes the air more dense. This all equals to balls losing distance. Only reason I can think of that this line is so high is because the scoring last night, and it is the lowest total of this 4 game series, the only one under 10. As it should be with each team putting their ace on the mound. With Hudson's sinking fastball and Francis being a Canadian native, I think the pitchers have a very distinct advantage in this game. By the time these two weary pens get involved, the players will be so cold it won't matter who is pitching. At even money, I had to make this play. Been cold so far going 0-2 in my two over plays so far this year, so maybe I just need to make an under play.


APRIL 10th


BRAVES/ROCKIES - UNDER 9 (+100)

*RISKING $300 to win $300


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $28,830


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (8-7) -$135
April RL Record (0-1) -$390
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645

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[joepa66]

GL today Biff....love the rationale on yer play bro! Thanks for the weather report! Man does that bat sting in 20/30 degree weather. May tail ya on this one even though I'm not much of a totals player!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

A Canadian pitching in the snow? Count me in!

[NIU Murph]

Biff,

You were correct about the game maybe not being played, it was just postponed.

Murph

[naught33]

good analysis as always bro, appreciate the insight, wish they would have played this game so i could have gotten on it w you and we could have made some money! BOL if u play anything else today

[Biff_Tannen]

JoePa... Johnny... wel'll get em next time.

Thanks Murph...

Thanks Naught...


I figured after 3 games they'd be willing to call it. Umpires don't want to be out in that weather either. Shame I passed on the Reds. Had I known this one would have been canned for certain, I more than likely would have played them because I'm not seeing much else I like today. May just have 1 more play today. Oakland looks ready for the sweep the way they've been playing. Eveland was lights out in his first start. He's a new guy from the Dbacks and very rightfully won a spot in the rotation this year. Be back later with the pick.



** I JUST CHECKED THE WEBCAM ON COORS FIELD AND THERE IN NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN DENVER! WHAT A BUNCH OF PANSIES! THEY SHOULD SAY WHY IT WAS REALLY CANCELLED. NOBODY WANTED TO PLAY IN THE COLD!

[Biff_Tannen]

Ok fellas, got some work to take care of this afternoon, so unless I make a play on the Cardinals tonight, which seems to be everybody's favorite, this is the only one that I'll have action on today. I feel like this is much more of a pick'em game than the public wants to believe. Eveland was HOT this spring, and was tied for lowest ERA I believe. The Jays pen on the other hand is in complete dissarray. They're having to bring guys up almost every other day. Just today they sent down Wells and brought up this guy Jesse Carlson. Here's what the skip, John Gibbons had to say afterwards...

"Jesse almost made the team out of spring training and we're facing a lot of lefties, we're a little beat up now."

Sounds like Gibby is ready to pull the plug on this series, and that means good things for the A's. With Accardo, Ryan, and Tallet (their top 3) out tonight, I like the A's chances to sweep the Jays for the 2nd consecutive time at the Rodgers Center. You can say Downs and Frasor are also decent, but I think they got the easier load last year.

Mark my words when I say the A's will be a profitable team this year. Seeing as they were deemed a "non-contender" there's only one problem, none of the A's believe it. They are young and cocky, and for good reason. Some of the most underrated talent is on this ball club this year. Buck is starting to hit, Crosby hasn't struck out in 7 games (longest streak of his career) and Sweeney and Cust offer enough of a threat to pitchers to round out this lineup. Put that together with a catcher, third & first baseman who will be playing their first full season, and I think there's nothing but good potential for this team. A's got reports on Stewart, Scutaro, and Thomas who have gone a combined 2-16 so far this series. Great value here, as I think the sweep over Boston in midst of their 3 country road trip is lingering in peoples minds.

I got a heavy lean on Boston as well, but it's very hit or miss with Wakefield.



OAKLAND ATHLETICS +135

*RISKING $300 to win $405

[Biff_Tannen]

Ok, damn it, I can't help myself with this play, so tail at your own risk.

Robertson and the Detroit pen are nothing special at Fenway. In fact I'd give them 3 out of 10 if I were to rate their past performance. Now Wakefield w/ Okajima, Delcarmen, and Papelbon at Fenway... closer to an 8 or a 9 out of 10 wouldn't you say? Tigers got their first win last night and trust me Boston did not want to be the victim of that after they got swept by Toronto. Not to mention they lost to the Tigers who got swept by the Royals and Sox. All in all, this looks like it has all the makings of a Boston bloodbath. I simply could not pass up on this value. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but Detroit is currently on my do not bet list due to their pen, and this seems like a prime spot to fade them off their first win against Lester. So what. I do not see Boston pulling out a sqweeker, they'll be swinging until the game is over I'm guessing. I'm working my way back up to even, and this is how you got to do it, with plus money odds.


BOSTON RED SOX RL -1½ +150

*RISKING $300 to win $450

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Wow...not sure 2 late wins over the Jays make the A's a contender all of a sudden. They were the worst hitting team in the AL before this series, and could have easily lost both in Toronto without Accardo's 9th inning ****ups.

And I'm not sure the sky is falling in the Jays bullpen quite like are you are saying. "Dissarray?". I laughed when I read that b/c I had just finshed reading an article a couple days ago about how strong this bullpen is again this year. Two bad outings by one player, and it's in dissary. lol. Like I said 2 games does not mean much...this Jays pen was the best in the AL before this series (they had only given up 1 run in 6 games against NYY & BOS), was the 2nd best in the AL last year, and will be fine. Bringing guys up every other day?? They haven't brought up one guy?? lol...where did you get that? Wells and Carlson were battling for the last spot in camp, and are non-issues. Barely news. They just switched spots, but neither would get innings really.

I think the Jays romp tonight, but GL! Just wanted to calm the "sky is falling" bullpen issues I read...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

That Eveland guy looks great tonight...you were bang on about him!!


GL

[Biff_Tannen]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Wow...not sure 2 late wins over the Jays make the A's a contender all of a sudden. They were the worst hitting team in the AL before this series, and could have easily lost both in Toronto without Accardo's 9th inning ****ups.

And I'm not sure the sky is falling in the Jays bullpen quite like are you are saying. "Dissarray?". I laughed when I read that b/c I had just finshed reading an article a couple days ago about how strong this bullpen is again this year. Two bad outings by one player, and it's in dissary. lol. Like I said 2 games does not mean much...this Jays pen was the best in the AL before this series (they had only given up 1 run in 6 games against NYY & BOS), was the 2nd best in the AL last year, and will be fine. Bringing guys up every other day?? They haven't brought up one guy?? lol...where did you get that? Wells and Carlson were battling for the last spot in camp, and are non-issues. Barely news. They just switched spots, but neither would get innings really.

I think the Jays romp tonight, but GL! Just wanted to calm the "sky is falling" bullpen issues I read...

Ok, I can see I pushed a button of yours, so just hear me out. I NEVER said the A's are a serious contender. While I think they will be come September, I was eluding to the fact that most baseball fans have already written this team off this year, except for the A's themselves. I said they would be profitable, and they will. That statement has nothing to do with their results the past two nights.

As for Toronto, I NEVER said they are thinking the sky is falling. Toronto does have a good bullpen, but when they are all healthy and clicking. Janssen is out as well as Ryan. Two very key guys for them last year. I realize this is their first move, but coming out of spring I heard some chatter that there were a lot questions as to who would make up the end of the pen. That made me think they will be sending guys up and down to get a look at them.

As for their bullpen performance so far this year, they are currently middle of the pack in my book seeing as they are 0-3 collectively. You can have a 1 ERA, but if you lose the game you're worthless. They share that 0-3 mark with the Tigers (good company). That was a bad spot for Boston, so I'm not blown away by their performance. With their closer hurt and the fill-in is getting clobbered, yes I'd say much like Gibby said, they are BEAT UP. The Athletics are just that, a poor offensive team, and they slapped the Jays pen on back to back nights. That's all I said and is what I meant by disarray. Current dissarray like just for tonight, or until Ryan gets back. They will be solid pen, but right now they are very hit or miss with Accardo in the 9th.

I'm not trying to butt heads, I appreciate your opinion, I'm sure you know a lot more about the Jays than me.


We're going to extras! Let's go A's!


Boston bloodbath looking good!

[Biff_Tannen]

What the hell was Tavarez doing in there??? I hate that loud mouth. He was not apart of my plan tonight. Red Sox better hold on.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

No Problem...I was just correcting a couple things. The bullpen is good this again this year, and is known to be a strong point of the team...so I was very surprised to see that paragraph bashing it. The BP that was 2nd best last year is essentially the same, Ryan was out last year...but is back in a week, so it is probably even better. (You said Ryan was a "key guy" for them last year....not at all...he was gone for the year). And then the whole "up and down" thing just wasn't accurate, so I was correcting that. There was on;y one job up for grabs, and that was only after Janssen went down. BP was set. Should be no mvement. Not sure where you got that Gibby comment, cause they are not beat up at all....haven't pitched much at all (b/c of good starting pitchng so far), and no injuries except the 2 they knew about going into the season. No worries though...I was just trying to say if your play was based on a Jays bullpen in dissarray, its really not the case.

Looks like the A's are probably going to pull it out. Jays had 2 men on base in the 9th, 10th and 11th innings, and couldn't get them across....not a good omen. But the pitching, both starting and bullpen was good again tonight.

Hitting seems to be the Jays problem again this year, as the starters and bullpen have been great so far. (starters have been insane)

GL!

And I agree about the A's....scrappy team with some good young pitching....

[Biff_Tannen]

That's true I forgot Ryan was gone last year. Ok, I can see you would bet your life on their pen right now, and I agree the pen is good, and essentially the same, but they gotta hold it together at home. 3 nights in a row blowing it to a bad offensive team is far from their potential. Next time I need some Jays info I'll come to you for sure before I start yappin. Seems like you got your team well pegged. Feel free to do likewise for the A's, I've been following them since I was a kid. I've moved around, but they've always been my hometown team.

Boston Bloodbath holds on! Glad I didn't lay off. Now I just need the A's to do the same.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

lol...sorry to harp...but I wouldn't call the pen "blowing" it tonight. They pitched 5+ scoreless innings before giving up a run. Can't ask for much more than that! It's just the A's pen did even better AND/OR the Jays bats couldn't cash endless runners in extras...


And always appreciate your insight, BIff....I didn't mean to come off as arguementative or know it all...lol.....nice calls tonight


Edit...Jays leave 2 more runners on base in the 12th....4th straight inning....lmao....not a clutch team so far.


A's