~~ BIFF'S BASES - APR. 12th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

I've kind of gotten away from my discipline. I've been making a bunch of plays for it being this early in the season. However, if I only play the first pick I made each day so far I'd be 6-6, so while the additional plays I've been making haven't hurt me too much, they definitely haven't helped me at all. Going to try and avoid making 3 plays in a single day for a couple weeks. Here's what I see this afternoon.

ATL @ WAS

- Going to look at playing the UNDER 1st 5 Innings. The first three times Smoltz went up against the Nats last year, the two teams combined for no more than 2 runs through the first 5 innings. I think after a pitching duel last night, and the Nats slumping, more of the same will be in store today. Don't like either pen right now, so now way I'd play the full game. If the first 5 Under doesn't hit, no way the Under for the game will hit. Seeing some heavy chalk on that 9 right now.

MIL @ NYM

- I like this game alot with the value on the Brew Crew. Santana has been see coming out the gate slow, and this year he is in a new league and making his debut at his new home park. He's put up two decent starts on the road down south, but definitely hasn't brought his "A" game yet. The Twins were 5-6 in Santana's April starts over the past two years. Sheets on the other hand is dealing for the Brewers who were the best lefty hitting team in the NL last year, and they are holding that title so far this year.

COL @ ARZ
- Arizona is currently on a 7 game NL West win streak.
- Dbacks smoke lefties, they went 28-15 against them last year.
- Morales shut this team up in Colorado. Something Francis has failed to do twice.

STL @ SF
- Pass. Giants opening as a favorite has me scratching my head, so no thanks.

DET @ CWS
- Verlander went 8-1 in 12 starts during the day last year.
- Sox are 4-1 in Floyd's last 5 starts against Detroit.
- The Tigers are 0-5 in his last 5 starts in Chicago.
- Swisher going to sit another one for the Sox.

NYY @ BOS
- I rarely touch this series just due to all the hype. So much crazy **** happens in this matchup that it's not worth it to me most of the time. Fun as hell to watch, but some of the most frustrating games if you've got action on em.

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Only one play so far, and it's tough to bet against Santana in any game, but I think if you're going to do it this game seems like a prime spot. Brewers are looking to snap a 3 game skid after a 6-1 start and the Mets are looking to keep a 3 game winning streak alive after starting out 2-4.

Brewers have cooled off a little, but I don't think they'll stay down long. Prince has yet to leave the yard, and I think he's due for a big game real soon, could very well be today. Jose Reyes is out of the lineup today, and the aging legs of Luis Castillo are going to have to play 2B so Easley can play SS.

Another thing I like about this game is that Santana might not even go... so I am listing this play as just ACTION on the Mets. (Sheets must start still). If the field gets sloppy, Willie is entertaining the idea of pushing him back to Sunday. Even though there is a chance of rain on Sunday as well, it would be sprinkles instead of the t-storm expected this afternoon. Seeing a need for a win, I don't think Yost will yank Sheets however. This is the lone trip for the Brewers to New York this year, so I think they'll try and get this game in as well as the one tomorrow. Rain chance looks to be about 30%.


MILWAUKEE BREWERS +130

*RISKING $300 to win $390



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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,280


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (10-9) -$135
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645

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[cavorca12]

Brewers come though. I like them vs lefties, especially as dogs with Sheets on the mound. I've been that guy in fantasy drafts taking a shot on Sheets for several years, but when he's in there, he's usually one of the top guys in the game. IMO that gives him some value when healthy, because people forget or sleep on him after all the injury problems. Nice job!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Nice hit!

I went to play it, but it had just started...lol.....Sheets looks good this year....hope he stays healthy...

[emv01]

Nice hit with the brew crew!!

[IBEME]

Getting better Nice hit today Biff

[Biff_Tannen]

Cavorca... Johnny... emv... IBEME...

Going to try and keep it to 1-2 plays per day here for awhile, so I hope it pays off. Today it did. Santana gives up 3 bombs in his Shea debut. Ouch. He'll bounce back though, cause like I said now is the time to go against him while he still isn't settled in. I more than likely (99.9% sure) won't go against him in May-August. Within striking distance of that elusive black line again. Back tomorrow.


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,670


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (11-9) -$255
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645

--
_________

[Biff_Tannen]

Just updated the bullpen fade list on the sticky. A $100 bettor would have made $640 fading the four teams on the list this past week... if this keeps raking in dough like this, I very well might start blind betting this list to some degree.