~~ BIFF'S BASES - APR. 13th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Ok guys its Sunday, one of my favorite days for bases. Why? Well almost all the games are day games. This means people usually make bets w/o doing much research. A very good day to fade what are "popular" picks. So far I've got five that are just that. I haven't locked anything in yet, but when I do I'll post it below. I more than likely will play 2-3 of these today. I know I'm trying to cut down on the plays, but since none of them are big favs, I can live with making 3 plays.

**I just updated the bullpen fade list on the sticky. A $100 bettor would have made $640 fading the four teams on the list this past week... if this keeps up, I very well might start blind betting this list to some degree on the side.

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Three hot teams that aren't getting much love on the road today all between +120 to +130...


OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Athletics are playing great ball right now. They have scored 35 runs in the past 6 games with only hitting 1 homerun. A 3 run shot by Bobby Crosby last night. This lack of the long ball is very unpopular with the public, but from a betting perspective, teams that don't have to rely on the long ball are cash money.


FLORIDA MARLINS

My least favorite of the three, as the Marlins have a minor leaguer going today. Badenhop had a good spring, but the guy only has one pitch, his sinker. While it's good enough to get ground balls, hitters will eventually just sit on it. However, he might get by in his first start. Astros are on the DNB list due to their pen, and with the way the Marlins have been hitting, I like the plus money odds against Wandy who has become widely known as a sure thing at home and fade machine on the road.


MILWAUKEE BREWERS

When will people learn, the Brewers just flat out hit lefties! Why do they continue to get plus money odds against them? Every game that goes by is one day closer to a break out game by the Prince, and the rest of the lineup is holding up right now. Jose Reyes is out until Tuesday, and without that spark at the top of the lineup, those 3,4, and 5 hitters for the Mets (Wright, Beltran, and Delgado) are just not as effective. Similar situation can be seen in Detroit w/o Granderson. Another neat fact, April is Suppan's best month in this career and is Perez's worst month.

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Another two games I like as small home favorites...


TAMPA BAY RAYS

Niemann was more effective this spring than Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel, but since those two are out of options, they started in the rotation. Based on how those two have done, I think this no name guy is a solid bet. Burres has been hammered by the Rays in the past, and off that close one last night, I think the Rays come out and get the new guy a win.


KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Just a fade on Liriano who is still holding on to that all-star stigma. While he might return to that all-star form, he's coming off tommy john surgery and has not been very impressive yet. He's got a 7+ ERA in his two minor starts and has had a lot of trouble with his control. Triple A coach said he wasn't ready, but Gardy doesn't have much of a choice right now. Very hard to come back from tommy john and be effective immediately. If only the Royals were making contact this bet would be a lot easier.



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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,670


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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April ML Record (11-9) -$255
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645

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[Biff_Tannen]

Other games I was looking at... it was tough not to touch Burnett with Feldman pitching, but Toronto does ****ty in Arlington. Also, Burnett burned me in a 1st 5 bet his last time out against Oakland. The Mariners look like a safe bet as well as they did wonders against lefties last year, but they're looking to sweep the Angels here after being manhandled by them for most of last year. They stocked up in the off season with the sole intention of beating the Angels, but that pen is lost w/o Putz. I like the Dodgers too, but Maddux is a tricky pitcher, I'm done trying to figure out the professor. Will the Rockies show up today? Who knows... I'm not wasting any more money to find out. Reds look solid with Cueto against the Pirates, but last time I said they had a weak lineup they killed it.

Ok, so after thinking about the 5 above long and hard, I'm just taking the one I like the most. Laying off the Royals because Liriano is only going to toss 5 innings probably, and that Twins pen is working well. Royals can't hit in runs even in the powder blue, and their pen has been a little too good I think. Very much due for a blemish. Laying off the Marlins just cause I really don't know enough about this rook. And I'm laying off the A's because Gaudin has had trouble with this lineup, he was not good on the road last year, and we still haven't seen his good stuff yet. A's are looking for their second straight road sweep while being listed as a dog in every game. I'm not going against that, but +120 seems too low to me. Too much could go wrong there. I'm backing out on the Brewers, because I can see how the Mets are favs after losing with Santana on the mound and Perez's success last year against the Brewers. Despite his success in April in the past, Suppan had a rough spring, and I just don't have enough confidence in him right now.

I can't however lay off the Rays. Niemann was named Tampa Bay's top pitching prospect for the second straight season coming out of Rice, a very good program. He was the 4th overall pick in 2004, and the world has yet to get a good look at this guys nasty slider. Burres has just been lit up by the Rays last year, and I think it happens again. Rays playing real good at home right now, and should get back on track after yesterday. I think a lot of people going to look at the O's with their hot start, not me. I may make another, but just this one for now. I like the RL alot, but I won't get greedy in the kids debut.


APRIL 13th


TAMPA BAY RAYS -125

*RISKING $375 to win $300




Good Luck!

[Stifler's Mom]

Your threads are very informative. I'm sure many people here benefit from your hard work, and that's what it's all about

[IBEME]

Gl on your pics today Biff

[wsox08]

Good luck today Biff. I'm on the Rays too. Very good info and keep up the good work

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL

[PhillyFan3]

agree with stiff there biff... threads have been very informative, keep up the good work bud I like the Rays too!

[Biff_Tannen]

Stifler, IBEME, Johnny, PhillyFan glad to hear my thinking out loud is helpful to you guys. I might not be able to type all that everyday, but I wanted to start the season but showing everyone my thought process.

wsox, enjoy the win!


A nice win for Niemann in his debut. Man he started off throwing everything above the belt, and had me worried there for a couple innings, but he settled in nicely. It was just a matter of time before Burres imploded against that Rays offense. The 5 plays I was looking at went 3-2, but I'll take a 1-0 over that any day! These past two weeks have really been somewhat of a wake up call, as I've probably made 5-6 bets that I should not have... some of them I won, some lost, but from here on out, I won't be making any plays that I'm not 100% confident in. So close to that black line, I'll be back for it tomorrow!

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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,970


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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April ML Record (12-9) +$555
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645

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