sunday

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 38-47 (-18.10 units)

Phillies -125

Cubs have been well known to suck vs LHP. After roughing up Gorzelanny in Pittsburgh (who had no control in that game and was walking or falling behind hitter after hitter), that form seems to be holding true again this year, as lefties Zack Duke and Cole Hamels have combined to throw 14 innings of 1 run ball against them.

Phils may be heating up a bit, and I'm gonna back the crafty lefty Moyer at this relatively low price, which IMO is only this low because #1 the Flubs always draw bad lines, and #2 the Flubs are looking to avoid a sweep and that always brings action on a team, for some reason.

Tampon Bay -130

The Rays beat up on Burres last year, and IMO the O's aren't as good as their hot start would indicate, although I don't think they're as poor as everyone thought they'd be either. In any case, Niemann is supposed to be tough, and has the advantage of being relatively unknown to most major leaguers. From what I see, Tampon Bay is favored at -130 for good reason, despite the fact that most teams (other than the Yankees) are either dogs or much closer to a pick when calling up a guy making his first start.

Houston -140

Doesn't seem like the spot to buck the Wandy is $$ at home trend with Badenhop going for Florida.

Seattle -130

Angels are in disarray, especially their awful league worst bullpen. Seattle is historically a strong home team, and after a rough start on the road, they seem to be holding true to that form again early on. Raul Ibanez is on fire as well.

2 units each

Probably gonna add Washington and Pittsburgh, as I think I can get a favorable dog line on both of them.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yep, got them both at still a decent line, although both are dropping like a brick, it would seem....

Pirates +110
Nats +115

2 units each

Another matchup I really love is Cleveland over the A's (on paper), but with how hot the A's are, I'm gonna pass.

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

Milwaukee +125

Been considering this one all morning. With Reyes out, and Milwaukee's .60+ difference in hitting vs LHP vs the Mets vs RHP, I've gotta go ahead with this one as a dog. The Brewers are a good team, and may be every bit as good as the Mets as the season rolls on. Not that I'd base my play on something so dumb, but Perez is due to get lit too, seeings as how he's been an erratic pitcher his whole career and he's coming off 2 solid starts to open the season. Hoping that's gonna happen today.

KC Royals -115

Laying juice for the Royals is icky, but Liriano isn't ready. He's gonna get roughed up today, IMHO.

SF Giants -125

Why are these 4-8 geeks favored over the 9-3 Cardinals? I guess it's for the same reason I like them today, who knows. I prefer Lincecum over a just off the DL Pineiro, and there's no way the St Louis Cardinals are gonna win 75% of their games this year, even against the ****tiest of teams. They're just not that good. SF bullpen (much like yesterday) is a concern, but oddly enough, I think the odds are right to take SF here.

2 units each

That should be it. 9 plays is a bit more than I'd like to make on any given day, but oh well....

[Daws1089]

gl stif. you make a good case for each of your plays. I almost played SF, but my book had -130 and i wasnt comfortable playing the midgits at that high of juice.

[Daws1089]

nice

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

gl stif. you make a good case for each of your plays. I almost played SF, but my book had -130 and i wasnt comfortable playing the midgits at that high of juice.

LOL yea, I don't blame you for not wanting to pay that price for SF today, or any other day. The thing is though, that the fact that the price was that high, despite that many had to feel the same way as you about laying that number for SF, reassured me that I was probably barking up the right tree with my thoughts on that one in the oddsmakers minds, win or lose.

I've actually been finding myself laying more chalk than usual this year in baseball. No idea why either. I handicap the games the same ways I always have, it's just that I'm coming up with more faves this year....so far anyway.

[Biff_Tannen]

Nice work today Stifler!