~~ BIFF'S BASES - APR 17th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Well I said I wanted to look at some dogs, and I am, later on. The Cubbies were the only one I that jumped at me this morning. Lilly has been struggling with what has been called a "mysterious" drop in his velocity. However, he was darn good in day games at Wrigley last year, and did fare better in his lone home start so far this year. He could very well click into a routine this afternoon. He's said he's not worried, and knows he can still win games with what he's got right now. With his career numbers, I'm taking his word. If there's one game he could try and piece a quality start together, it's today against the Reds who he did well against last year holding them to a .168 average in 27 innings. Big parts of Cincy's offense are lefties (Patterson(leadoff), Griffey(3 hole), and Dunn(cleanup/5 hole). Phillips splitting up Griffey and Dunn, either way he's 0 for 13 against Lilly in his career. Griffey hit .236 against LHP last year, Dunn hit .239. Lilly is a fly ball pitcher, but I've heard the wind should be light today, and Volquez isn't a sinking pitcher either.

There's no doubt Edison Volquez is a fresh new arm for that Reds rotation, but despite being a top prospect in Texas, he never really bloomed at the major league level. His Ks seem to be hit or miss, so I'm taking a gamble today that his tranfer to the NL isn't as easy as he might think it is. Cubs are swinging hot bats right now up and down the lineup and the Reds have lost 5 striaght. I'd take DeRosa over Soriano right now, so no loss there in my book. It seems like it could be very tough for the Reds to break that streak on the road against Ted Lilly when they had the most losses against LHP (36) in 2007. Reds pen has been getting hit a lot these past few games and is a big reason for this losing streak. They were taxed again last night with Fogg's early departure, so I'm not sure they got much left in the tank. Marmol was lights out in the series opener and I hope see another 2 innings from him tonight. I know this is a very risky play on Lilly v. Volques, as either could be hit or miss today I think, but I feel better knowing I've got the hotter hitting team at home. I hate to ruin Bakers return to Wrigley, but business is business and the Cubs know that.


APRIL 17th

CHICAGO CUBS -130

*RISKING $390 to win $300



--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,595


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (13-11) +$180
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (1-3) -$645

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[NIU Murph]

Good call Biff.

Today's forecast has SSE winds of 5-10 mph, which means at Wrigley the wind will blow from the RF Foul Pole across to the LF Foul Pole. This is as opposed to the last two evenings at Wrigley where the winds were 20-30 MPH SSW (wind blowing straight out).

I look forward to Lilly helping the Cubs complete the sweep today.

GL!

Murph

[joepa66]

GL today Biff!

[Biff_Tannen]

Murph...

JoePa...

No dogs are barking for me just yet, if anything it'll be tonight's late games. For some hopeful redemption after that Cubbies disaster, another small home favorite.


BALTIMORE ORIOLES -110

*RISKING $330 to win $300

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Eesh...opposites on both again today....GL...

[Biff_Tannen]

Well, worked out well for you in the first game Johnny. I haven't hit my stride yet this season, so who knows. I'd say this is as good as time as any to be opposite me. Good Luck.

[Biff_Tannen]

Well, I might be on track for my first 0-3 day, so tread lightly. This is the dog play I've been looking at all day, so I'm going to go ahead and play it. I was going to take the over, but seems to easy. Peavy is not an automatic play against the Rockies, even if they are slumping. They woke up a little late last night, and with a weaker lineup for the Pads today, seems like there's still enough value in the line. So here goes nothing.


COLORADO ROCKIES +160

*RISKING $300 to win $480

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

lol...just added the Pads right before your Colorado add....

[Biff_Tannen]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

lol...just added the Pads right before your Colorado add....

This is an action play. In case for some reason Peavy trips.

[Biff_Tannen]

By no means was that a pretty way to have a winning day, but for right now, I'm taking it. That COL/SD was unbelievable. I can't get past the threshold, and I'm still in the red.... just barely.



--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $29,985


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (15-12) +$570
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (1-3) -$645

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