sunday turds

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 89-98 (-17.10 units)

Nationals +115

The Flubs apparent success vs LHP this year seems to be a bit of a smokescreen, since most of it came against Tom Gorzelanny and Matt Chico, both of whom suck and are both sporting ERA's at least double the price of a gallon of gas for the season. They did get to Zack Duke, who the jury is still out on IMO with his mixed success, but were practically blanked by Cole Hamels.

LHP Lannan has pitched a few good starts in a row now, and at a dog line and Ted Lilly as the opposing starter, I'm more than willing to see what he can do against the Flubs lineup this afternoon.

KC Royals -105

No offense to any of the Toronto fans here, but is there a team in the majors playing worse ball than the Jays right now? They haven't won yet on this road trip, and I'm not sure what makes today the day they're gonna win one either.

Texas -130

This is more of a situational play for me, than any type of statistical one. The Rangers need a win here badly, and after the way they gave the game away yesterday (a ton of errors, then losing by 6 in extras), I think they will come out more focused today.

Twins are always a solid team, and I fully expect their best effort as well, but I also like the chances of Livan to give up a few long balls today in Arlington, as I have no idea how his blooper balls and smoke and mirrors pitching has gotten him to 3-0 and a 3.55 era so far this season, with the Twins winning each of his 5 starts.

Like I said, more of a spot play for me....nothing statistically solid to back it up.

Plus, seeing 70% back a road dog is nearly always an automatic fade for me, as there's pretty much always something the public is blatantly overlooking as to why this team is dogged in the first place.

St Louis/Houston over 9 -105

It wouldn't shock me to see either pitcher in this one get completely lit up, and I certainly don't think either one is gonna throw a shutout.

First of all we have Brandon Backe, who has always been relatively crappy on the road. Then factor in his season WHIIP of 1.73 (15 walks allowed and 30 hits given up in 26 innings pitched), and I don't see how his ERA isn't double digits. He must be doing a good job of pitching out of jams so far, but allowing nearly 2 guys to reach base in EVERY INNING YOU PITCH is going to eventually spell disaster....and probably sooner rather than later.

I don't think much of Kyle Lohse either, on the other hand, which is why I didn't lay the chalk with St Louis, but rather opted for the over. Houston's offense has been clicking all week, and I'm hoping at the very least that they can muster up some runs off the very pedestrian Lohse today.

Colorado +100

Very rarely do I just fade a pitcher, but Esteban Loaiza just sucks. I don't see how he's gonna go more than like 4 innings either. I'll give the crappy Rockies a shot at even money.

2 units each

Could have a few more yet....i'm not sure

[Stifler's Mom]

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yep...nobody is "hitting" worse than the Jays right now...it's just brutal....although I'm going to take a stab that they get a few runs off the horrible Meche today...what's happened to him?

GL!!

[Stifler's Mom]

They're just playing bad baseball, imho.

Like last night for example, they get a great start from Marcum, yet still lose. You just can't expect a team to win when they can only score 1 stinkin run off a crappy spot starter....which is exactly my point. They are finding ways to lose, even in games they should be winning.

Meche hasn't been very good, but Litsch hasn't exactly set the world on fire either....and if i'm gonna "guess", I'm gonna at least take the team who seems to be playing better ball, even if they're not the better team, on paper.

Game 6 of a road trip on which they haven't won a game yet doesn't really seem like the time to "turn it around" to me either. I'd much rather wait till they get back home, or until the line at least moves in their favor to try and back the Jays.

I mean lets get serious, the fact that they're favored today is pure public perception that they are a better team than KC, and that's it....and it has nothing to do with the fact that they have a better shot to win than the Royals.

Just how i see it, lol

[Stifler's Mom]

I see the Royals have moved more towards being the fave, for whatever it's worth, as I see them at -110 at a bunch of books now.

I wished I could have gotten +100 or better for KC, but the crappy book I'm using has 15 cent baseball lines (was -110 TOR and -105 KC when I made the bet), and unfortunately with all the uncertainty in how to deposit/withdraw, i'm not much into going thru the process of finding another book right this minute.

My point though, if it keeps going and you can get TOR at like +110, it's (imo) a better play than at the -110 they were when I played them, even though it doesn't seem like a huge difference in the line.

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

Chief Wahoo +120

2 units

Gotta go with the red hot Tribe over the cold Yankees at this price. Sabathia (hopefully) has returned to form after a crap start, and the only thing keeping me off this play was Wang's solid performance to start this season.

Again, public perception has this line at what it is, plus the public pounding the Yankees cause Heaven forbid the mighty Bronx Bombers could get swept....

Interestingly enough, though, despite being +120 on the ml, the Indians are -1.5 on the RL, while the Yanks are catching the +1.5 runs.

Shows what the oddsmakers think of this contest, and who has the better chance to win it, imo.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yup...playing bad for sure...

Friday was the worst...they've been waiting for a "big hit" for a week, looking for someone to step up...they get Rolen back for that game, and with it tied 2-2 in the 8th...Rolen doubles in 2 runs to take the lead...HUGE hit in his first game back....what happens? Bottom of the 8th, Eckstein drops a routine doubleplay ball fromt he pitcher, getting no outs, and leading to a 6-run Royals 8th, and the loss.

Last night was bad too...Marcum pitches great once again, and the Jays cannot get runners in from 2nd and 3rd all game. This team leads the AL in doubleplay balls, and their BA with runners in scoring position is .217...second worst in the majors.

And yeah...I wouldn't play them as a fave at all...my books opened them up as a pick'em, and went towards dog lines right away.

I definitely wouldn't reccommend backing this team...but this lack of timely hitting has to end, and the pitching staff has been fine, so this losing streak could be getting them favourable lines very soon...right when their bats heat up.


GL today!! I like all your plays today (except KC, lol)

[Stifler's Mom]

Detroit -135

2 units

Weaver should get pounded here. Hopefully Verlander is able to dominate, or at least pitch well. Seems like a total mismatch, and the price seems a bit low....but then again, there is the Tigers bullpen to be concerned with

Tribe RL +190
KC RL +175
Texas RL +150
Detroit RL +145

1 unit each

All 4 RL's are -1.5 runs