~~ BIFF'S BASES - MAY 1st ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Coming off of what Big Moe said... the Cubs have a tendency of getting in a "cruise control" mode off a big win... I would think this would be especially true at home with the day game next and getting off to one of their best starts to the season EVER.

One thing about Gallardo I like is that his K/BB is about 3 to 1. This guy takes control of the game and determines his own fate most of the time. In his 17 starts last year, the only games where the Brew Crew lost by more than 1 run (4 times I believe) he gave up at least 5 runs himself. Brewers have lost his last four starts dating back to last year, and I think he's too good along with this offense to make it 5 in a row.

A case can be made for Zambrano as well, but he walked 4 guys his last time out, and his K/BB ratio wasn't even 2 to 1 last year (177/101) or the year before (210/115). His style has changed over the past couple years and he isn't the dominant ground ball pitcher he was early in his career. He's struggled against the Crew in the past couple years, and with how young and dynamic this team is, they aren't the same team... I think they're better (offensively).

Soriano is back and leading off for who knows what reason. Reed Johnson has done much better, yet he's hitting 8th. Soriano won't be stealing 30 bags this year, so why not put him in the 3 hole with D Lee and A. Ramirez behind him and move Fukudome or someone who can handle the bat up to the top. Guess that's why Pinella gets the big bucks. Good Luck.



MAY 1st

MILWAUKEE BREWERS +135

*RISKING $300 to win $405


--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,845


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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[Biff_Tannen]

I haven't coached in the bigs yet, but I think this looks much better to me... what do you guys think?


CF - R. Johnson (Best Leadoff option. Patient hitter and fearless on the paths.)
RF - K. Fukudome (Another patient hitter who puts the bat on the ball and stays out of DP. Only 1 this year.)
LF - A. Soriano (Free Swinger who can score from first on a double and stay out of DP.)
1B - D. Lee (Power Spot #1)
3B - A. Ramirez (Power Spot #2)
C - G. Soto (Guy who wants to be in power spot #2 more than anything.)
2B - M. Derosa (The best of the worst.)
SS - R. Theriot (Some speed in front of the pitcher/PH.)
Pitcher


Today's starting line-up...

LF - A. Soriano
SS - R. Theriot
1B - D. Lee
3B - A. Ramirez
RF - K. Fukudome
2B - M. DeRosa
C - G. Soto
CF - R. Johnson
Pitcher

[Underdog88]

Nice to see you on this one as well Biff! I totally agree with your top 4 batting order, Fukudome seems like the cut & dry #2. Hopefully Gallardo pitches well, I sure could use a winner

[Biff_Tannen]

Hope so too Underdog!


What the Brewers lack now is patient hitters at the top of their lineup. I hope the Cubs come out a little sleepy today, cause Weeks and Cameron had 4 pitches total. Both swung at the 1st strike.

[bigmoe]

Lets get it in, Biff. Good luck.


Btw, I agree about the batting order. Reed Johnson at the top is one reason the Cubs lead the majors in runs. It all starts at the top. And I am not a manafer either but my eyes still work very well.

[bigmoe]

Soriano 0-4 and did not get a ball out of the infield. He also misplayed an 9th inning fly ball into a double, helping to continue the Brewer rally. Thank God he is back! But Wood looked like crap, too.

See you at the cashiers window, Biff.

[Biff_Tannen]

Big Moe ... Underdog...


Next up... I think everything in this game points one direction, so I'm laying the chalk and taking a shot at a home team that has been hot in its current homestand. Warm ups starting so that's the write-up. I also like the Mariners and the Jays... but I can't touch either right now. Good Luck.


WASHINGTON NATIONALS -125

*RISKING $375 to win $300

[Biff_Tannen]

For those of you interested, I broke down my betting splits after the first month. Figured I would share since I'm here to help and it's something I recommend heavily for anyone betting serious cash. Once you see the spots where you do bad and just don't bet in those situations you can save a lot of green over the course of a season. I realize these specific splits (1 of about 10 different ones I keep) are 100% based on the time, but there is also a mentality that goes into betting as the day progresses that make these mind maps very telling.

Daws if you read this, you'll be glad to see that in days where I only made one play in this past month I was 8-2. That's 1/3 of the days this month where I only made 1 play, winning 80%. Also, I have never made a third play after winning my first two plays.

I was surprised that I've done this well on my first plays of the day, but there's no doubt in my mind that I would not have made $1,800+ going 17-13. So I'm going to stick with making 1-3 plays a day for now. Enjoy.

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APRIL BETTING SPLITS


1st PLAY OF THE DAY = 17-13
*IN DAYS WHERE I ONLY PLAYED 1 GAME = 8-2

2nd PLAY OF THE DAY = 11-11
*AFTER WIN IN GAME 1 = 4-5
*AFTER LOSS IN GAME 1 = 7-6

3rd PLAY OF THE DAY = 6-3
*AFTER 2 WINS = 0-0
*AFTER 2 LOSSES = 1-1
*AFTER 1-1 SPLIT = 5-2


* MADE A COUPLE UPDATES AND TOOK THE 5 PLAYS I MADE THIS MONTH THAT I DID NOT POST.

[Daws1089]

that's why i was asking

[Biff_Tannen]

And I'll let history repeat itself again tonight and I'll stop at 2-0.


If I did play the Jays and the Mariners, I could have taken the week off.

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May ML = (2-0) +$705
May RL = (0-0) +$0
May O/U = (0-0) +$0

--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $32,550


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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[cavorca12]

Haha, I don't think anyone truly expected Oak to score 14 runs, but considering the starters, I figured it would be either a pretty high or low scoring game after that 6-1 game the day before. Nice job on Wash and GL today