SaTURDay bunny nuggets

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 110-122 (-20.35 units)

Wasn't happy getting close to even, i guess. I was due for a bad day anyhow.

NY Yankees/Seattle under 8.5 +100

Neither team is doing **** offensively, and I really see no evidence that today will be the day either one breaks out and goes wild, NYY against King Felix whose numbers are outstanding as always, and SEA vs Mike Mussina who is having a pretty decent season himself, let alone both teams piling up the runs.

I believe this "low" total of 8.5 (instead of it being set at the VERY key number of 9 when betting totals) is inviting public action on the over on this FOX televised early afternoon game.

Toronto -120

Two things I know from past experience....The Jays are NOT the worst hitting team in MLB against LHP, no matter what the numbers say, and that John Danks is NOT an 0.86 era pitcher as his last 3 starts would suggest. The fact that the White Sox are 3-9 in the last 12 Danks starts and his 5.50 ERA for all of last season would certainly suggest to the contrary.

Also of note, Danks has made 3 prior starts with Rob Drake behind the dish, and the opposing team has avergaed 9.33 runs per game in those starts, with totals of 10, 10 and 8. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he was off those days, or maybe the pen came in each time and got hammered. Or, maybe his style doesn't agree with this particular umpire's strike zone. Either way, it's certainly not a positive in the Sox favor.

For these reasons, I expect a return towards the norm on both numbers today, as I think the Jays are about to get hot and run off a very nice few weeks coming up here....which is why I've been on them the last 2 days, and am on them again today.

Pittsburgh Pirates -115

Fading Matt Chico. The dude has been awful, having no control at all. I doubt one extra day of rest is gonna "fix" whatever ails him, and even if it does, then so be it....it's not like i'm paying -150 for this play like the numbers suggest I should be.

2 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

Baltimore O's +120

Garland sucks, imho, while Cabrera has been a new man this season with better control and more confidence, as the stuff was always there on his pitches....just not the control of them or the confidence in them.

O's pen has done a great job this year as well, and the O's are winning the close ones instead of blowing them late like last year. I believe this is a team that will have serious value all year long, especially when dogged with the SP advantage, so I'm rolling with em this afternoon for those reasons.

Cincinnati Reds +125

+125 to fade JoJo Reyes in a call up from the minors to get the spot start today, and a team (the Braves) that can't score for ****, and hasn't scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 5 games?

I'm there.

Side note: The Reds bashed JoJo twice last year in his 2 appearances against them. Looking for more of that today.

2 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

Well, Matt Chico sucked ass alright. Too bad Maholm took a few innings to get it going. A few late breaks went in the way of the Nats too, or Pittsburgh could have still taken it.

Looks like a tough loss coming on the O's too.

Oh well, on to the later games....

Brewers RL +145

Looking for Backe to get blown up big time very shortly, as his numbers are crap, and should be worse. I have to ignore the fact that he's tough at home, cause that's in the past until he proves he can allow less than 2 runners per inning. Brew Crew have the bats to take advantage of his walks.

Tigers RL +140

Against the grain for me, siding with the public and going against the line move (if there was value in MIN, it's gone now anyway), but basically I don't think Minny's offense will break out 2 days straight, while at the same time I don't think the Tigers will be held flat 2 days in a row. Verlander hasn't been what he once was, but until last night, the Tigers pen had been doing better.

Tampon Bay +150

Why not? They won this matchup just a week ago, did they not? And swept Boston too. One game of big offense for the Red Sox isn't enough to prove to me they're out of their slump, and, the RAYS have the BEST bullpen in baseball, at least for now. Win or lose, this line is bad, and I'm going for the value.

Florida +140

Tough to win when you can't score, even if your pitcher is Jake Peavy. How can I NOT take a chance with Florida at +140 against the worst offensive team in baseball? A line obviously made on the pitching matchup alone, ignoring the fact that there are 8 other guys taking the field for each side to begin the game with those pitchers...

2 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

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