~~ BIFF'S BASES - MAY 7th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

I liked the Tigers alot, as Galarraga has been the only consistent pitcher for the Tigers. Buchholz's numbers look good until you see his road starts. I thought about only playing the first 5 innings, but with two offenses that can explode at any moment, I think it's best to play the full game despite the huge mismatch in the bullpens. Red Sox on a 5 game winning streak, the Tigers on a 5 game losing streak. Detroit has averaged over 3 men LOB during this losing streak for every 1 run, something has got to give. For fade material, Brandon Lang I heard is on the Red Sox for the 4th consecutive day. I also like the Jays and Yanks, but too much chalk and I don't feel confident enough to wrap those two up in a parlay. All too tough for me to pull the trigger.


UPDATE: Seriously considering playing my two losers from last night. I looked into it about me being 1 day early on teams, and in days were I went 0-2 (3 times) or 0-3 (1 time).. 9 total plays (discard the one total).. the team I bet on was 6-2 in their following game, with only one being a 1 run win, and one an extra innings loss. Nats sitting at +165 and the Rocks at -115.



--

May ML = (5-4) +$390
May RL = (0-1) -$345
May O/U = (1-1) +$0


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,890


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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[Biff_Tannen]

Call it a chase if you want, but these are eerily similar situations for BOTH teams. S. Hill .. O. Perez. S. Chacon .. R. Oswalt. You can make a case for why Oswalt is better sure, but that's why I'm getting the nice +165 price tag. M. Redman .. J. Francis. B. Looper .. A. Wainwright. I see both of those as equal upgrades. More importantly than who is starting, I bet on teams because I like the spot the team is in. Nationals were just playing great ball at home and I think are undervalued coming to Houston. They did good enough for the win last night but gave up two late runs in the 8th and lost it. The Rockies are back home and are desperately trying to get something started before they head back out on the road in key divisional games to face San Diego and Arizona. Cardinals are playing out of their minds right now, but did a lot of that at home. They could easily cool off in Colorado, or better yet just get outscored. Rockies got started too late last night and fell one run short. So if you look at the match ups, I'm essentially just making the same two bets I made last night. Going with the original gameplan. Hope the recent past holds true tonight and I can snag a couple winners. Good Luck.



MAY 7th

COLORADO ROCKIES -115

*RISKING $345 to win $300


WASHINGTON NATIONALS +165

*RISKING $300 to win $495

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Man...you and the Rockies....lol.....like the Nats though, but once again, their road record scared me off....Oswalt is considered an ace still, but he's lost something...and has a bad team backing him....GL Biff...hope you sweep!

[Biff_Tannen]

Thanks Johnny...

Yeah Rockies are my #1 most bet team so far this year. Unfortunately I'm sporting a 3-4 record when betting on them. Hope that improves.

Nats got a big one early, but Oswalt just knocked in two and helped his cause. Hanging breaking ball for 1-2?? Why would you even throw a strike?? ODALIS!

[Biff_Tannen]

Damn you Carlos Lee. 2 game winning hits in back to back nights.
So I lose another 1 run game with the Nationals with another come from behind win for the Stros. Sometimes you just can't catch a break.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

You've been backing some pretty bad teams lately....get 'em back tomorrow!

Rox still have a chance though...

[Duke]

what a comeback off of izzy..... congrats

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Rox

[Biff_Tannen]

Not sure what you mean about the bad teams? I don't lay big chalk if that's what you mean. I'll continue to do that. So far this month I've bet on Nats and Rockies three times, the Brewers twice, A's, Cubs, Cards, Rangers all once. On any given day a dog will shine and a bully will get beat.

Although I'll admit I do need to spread it around some more. I seem to be focused on teams as little dogs/faves the past couple days where I think one side is getting hammered at a cheap price. For some reason I feel like I'm trying to side with sharp money. I need to forget that and just call 'em like I see 'em. I'm getting good reads on games, just picking the wrong ones to bet on. Tigers hung on for a win, Jays won... Yanks lost. Tonight I was just following a personal trend that has been following me so far this year. Didn't work out like I had hoped, but a split will work if Fuentes can hold on. I'm getting real hungry Johnny.

[emv01]

Didn't post it but tailed you on the Rockies..EASY winner.. lol

[Biff_Tannen]

Duke.. emv... Rocks sure do know how to make the end exciting the past couple days. The Nationals do as well, but in a bad way.

Worked out to a break-even split on the day, but I need to start stringing some together sometime soon after a 7-7 start to May. My April goal of 3K has still yet to be reached and it's really starting to bug me. I know it's a long season, I'll go hot and I'll go cold, but seems like it's just as frustrating to be luke warm. Funny I don't feel luke warm, which means I'm not putting my money on the right games. A problem that I hope is short lived. Back at it tomorrow.


--

May ML = (6-5) +$390
May RL = (0-1) -$345
May O/U = (1-1) +$0


--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,890


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

[cavorca12]

Biff, saw your Col comment and JML's post. It reminded about a problem I had during my horrible run couple weeks ago. I'd see what IMO might possibly be a bad spot for a team, even if they were playing good ball, and then I'd reason backing an often inferior opponent provided IMO the mu's weren't egregious. Now I double check my reasoning on both sides trying to avoid a pitfall that cost me. Good example was on 5/5 -- looked hard at Col gm1 vs a STL team off a big Sun night home W to win a series over div rival ChiC, then traveled to Col. Saw Col was just 3-11 L14, laid off a relatively weak play on a so-so home fav vs a team playing better ball but might be in a bad spot, and I saved myself an L. Not saying you have the same problem or are in any kind of rut - you're an intelligent capper, and I'm sure you know I don't intend to sound like a critical ******* if it reads that way. Just reminded me of my problem and pass it on in case it helps, since IMO that's a large reason why we're here. Anyway, I can get long-winded sometimes, but just keep doing your thing and GL.

[Biff_Tannen]

Cavorca... I hope I'll soon be back to doing my thing... but I'm going to try and mix it up today. Wish me luck.