Cavorca MLB Thurs

[cavorca12]

Thurs 5/8:

Boston -130 ... 1 Unit


YTD: 112-132-1 (-6.41 Units)


Going out of town today, and I just absolutely hate flying. Not a fear, just the whole day long ordeal wears on me, esp a freaking layover and connecting flight. Tonight was one of the worst nights of sleep I've had in a while, so I checked out some games.

Not much to say on Bos. Still waiting on Verlander to pick it up and think Beckett should be nearing/if not at full strength by now. Verlander has already L a couple games following a Det W, like today. Det just ended a 5gm L streak and can split with a W, but Bos is playing well right now.

One other I hope to get a better price on and add later, provided I'm not whipped by the time I make it off the plane, is TB. Looked at Edwin Jackson's splits and noticed that he is horrible vs lefty hitters but much better vs righties. Not a huge difference in 2006, but it's noticeable in 2007 and huge so far in 2008.
Lefties:
2007 - BAA: 313, WHIP: 1.98
2008 - BAA: .302, WHIP: 2.07
Righties:
2007 - BAA: .285, WHIP: 1.53
2008 - BAA: .194, WHIP: 1.03
Tor lefties are Stairs and Overbay, and neither has hit Jackson well (Overbay 0-10 or 12). No one else on Tor, neither Rios or Wells or really anyone, has hit Jackson well previously besides Aaron Hill (.300 something with decent numbers).
TB players have hit Litsch pretty well from what I see. IMO this could be a decent spot for TB as well. It's their last game of a 9 game trip before going home, and a W for a series win to close a trip for a young team should be big. One thing I didn't like, besides Tor playing so well, was that Tor gets to .500 with a W. But since Tor isn't tearing the cover off the ball, IMO TB has a shot for the W if they get a couple runs and Jackson pitches how his numbers indicate he should. Total set at 9 seems high here and kind of scares me, but I'll be on TB at least.

GL

[cavorca12]

Well, after ranting this morning, naturally I had my smoothest trip in a long while. No crying babies, annoying talkative neighbors, delays, ect. Really happy I grabbed Bos at -130.... Hou is very tempting, but a huge pub play that it scares me. I've played Backe in nearly all his starts, but he's not pitching as well as he's capable of pitching. I'd have probably played it a couple weeks ago, but despite how well Hou is hitting, the play is just too shaky IMO.


Tampa Bay +114 ... 1.25 Unit

Tampa Bay RL +175 ... 0.75 Unit


GL!

[cavorca12]

Like I said a little earlier, didn't think this was really good enough for a play. I'm a 'Stros fan and plan to watch the game though, so if I'm just completely wrong I'll just eat it.

Houston -125 ... 0.75 Unit

Houston RL +160 ... 0.35 Unit

Wash at Hou Under 9.5 (Even) ... 0.75 Unit

[Biff_Tannen]

Nice work on those first two games. Seems homer bets never win.