~~ BIFF'S BASES - MAY 17th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Well, I wish I had the balls Big Moe does and take the +230 line with the Bucs, but I need to piece together wins and Duke has a chance, but not big enough for my money. Instead I'm looking at another day game to get things started today and going for some big odds as well. I got some extensive notes on the game, so I thought I'd share. Enjoy.

The Rays (25-17) are in first place in the AL East. They are eight games above .500 for the first time in franchise history. They have won eight of their last nine games, outscoring their opponents 38-15. Far more impressive from a pitching standpoint. 7 of those 9 games were at home where their pitching had the lowest ERA in the AL.

Matt Garza while pitching effectively lately, he has seen a big drop in his strikeouts this year. Only 14 Ks in 32 2/3 IP. A drop from over 7 K/9 IP last year to under 4 K/9 IP so far this year. He also has 14 BBs giving him a 1:1 K/BB ratio. He's put together three above average starts, after starting the year with a couple below average starts before getting hurt, and one right after coming back. This is his first start against an NL opponent, and hasn't had a history with anyone in the Cards lineup. He's a righty, so that means the hot hitting Duncan should be in the lineup. He's also had trouble in his two career starts with Gibson calling the game. He had radical nerve irritation in his throwing arm earlier this year; a tingly arm is something that could easily be tweaked again, especially after two starts of 100+ pitches.

Adam Wainwright had his worst start of the season by far his last time out. It was on the road in Milwaukee. Despite their performance last year, they were in the TOP 3 last year in offense, and should come close to that again this year with only upgrades to their lineup. He said he had good stuff after the game, but just wasn't locating and leaving pitchers too much over the middle. His is at home today however, where he is 3-0 so far this year in 4 starts. He's posting a 2.03 ERA with 6 BBs and 21 Ks so far at home. The Cards have dropped Wainwright's last two starts after winning 5 of his first 6 starts. 4 of the 5 wins this year have been 1-run wins. Only 4 of 19 winning starts for him last year were 1 run games. He is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in eight career interleague starts.

Tampa Bay, much like St. Louis has found a lot of success at home, but not so much on the road. Their fine bullpen pitching this year which is posting a nice 3.18 ERA overall, but has had a less impressive 5.00 ERA on the road. The St. Louis pen has struggled and owns a record of 6-10. However that's including the newly disabled Isringhausen who owns a 1-5 record himself. Outside of Villone and Izzy, the Cards pen has been very solid, and I know one of them won't be in game, I also doubt Villone will see action with a lead or in a close game. Izzy has also pitched in 5 of Wainwrights last 6 starts giving up runs in 3 of the 5 games which led to 3 blown saves. Both bullpens are well rested with the exception of Percival who has pitched on back to back nights. At his age, I'd be shocked to see him available again today after pitching the night before. So if the Cards are down late in the game, they could see a bust with a fill in closer.

As for hitting, the Cards are posting above average OPS% during the day, while the Rays are posting equally below average OPS% during the day. I'm looking for bounce back days from two key guys in this Cards lineup. Albert Pujols went 0-for-4 yesterday, ending his streak of reaching base in all 42 games to start the season along with a 14-game hitting streak. Rick Ankiel also went 0-for-4, ending a nine-game hitting streak. I think Tampa Bay is an easy dog to fall in love with, and I've done very well with them so far this year, but I'm looking for them to get beat 6-2 or 6-3 if everything goes as planned.

There are some positive short terms trends for the Rays, but I don't count those much as 7 of the past 10 have been at home. The Cardinals were killing the ball against the Pirates before the Rays came to town, and I think today has all the makings of another break out day starting with Garza. I also think chances are if the Cardinals win it will be a 2+ run win, so I'm taking the plus odds over the chalk. I don't have the exact number, but close to 80% of interleague games last year were 2+ run wins. I think the Rays are the #1 RL team in terms of profit this year with a 27-15 record, but could take a big hit today.


I'm 1-3 in RL plays so far this year, and I'm coming off an 0-3 day, so I hope that means I'm in store for a bounce back day. I went 2-1 the day following my 0-3 day in April. Good Luck with interleague boys!


Some trends for thought... (yes I realize these are all ML trends)

Cardinals are 8-0 this year in game 2 after losing the first game of a series.
Cardinals are 7-0 in Wainwrights last 7 starts as a home favorite.
Cardinals are 38-18 in their last 56 interleague home games.
Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 20-9 in their last 29 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cardinals are 42-20 in their last 62 interleague games as a favorite.
Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwrights last 4 Saturday starts.
Cardinals are 7-2 in their last 9 Saturday games.

Rays are 24-60 in their last 84 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 29-73 in their last 102 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 6-14 in their last 20 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 11-28 in their last 39 interleague games as an underdog.
Rays are 14-37 in their last 51 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Rays are 33-88 in their last 121 games as a road underdog.
Rays are 6-6 in their 12 games this year as a road underdog.




MAY 17th

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS RL -1½ (+170)

*RISKING $300 TO WIN $510



--

May ML = (12-13) -$270
May RL = (0-1) -$345
May O/U = (2-2) -$45
May H+R+E = (2-0) +$600
May Parlays = (1-2) -$135


--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,650


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

[FlushingHearts]

GL Biff... always need it with the RL. Hopefully you crush it today.

[L.A. Dream Team]

GL today Biff!! I like the Cards today also I'm playing it safe with the ML.....

[gadfly36]

gl biff im a rays fan being in tampa bay but im staying away from this game

[bigmoe]

Good luck, Biff. Big Z broke a bat over his leg in the bottom of the 4th inning and walked the pitcher to start the 5th and did not record an out before being pulled from the game. I was hoping the childish horse**** was done. Z needs to grow up.

[Biff_Tannen]

Flushing... L.A. Dream... Gadfly... Thanks guys.

Big Moe... Big Z has always been an emotional pitcher. He said he was going to work on staying under control this year, but his fire is rooted deep in his brain, it will always be there. Congrats on your win!

I wish my game was going as smoothly as I had hoped. 8-4 game turned into a potential loser with Pena putting up a 3 run bomb in the 7th. We got an 8-8 game now... hope the Cards can get busy and put up a couple to give Franklin a nice cushion to sit on.

[bigmoe]

Damn Cards pen not helpng, Biff.


One of these days, Z is going to break a bat over his knee and he is going to shatter the knee cap. Or at least badly bruise his leg. When he came out to pitch in the 5th after breaking his bat, he clearly was not the same pitcher. It was clear Pinella was not happy.

[Biff_Tannen]

Ludwick does it again... with nobody on base.


9-8 win for the Cards.


I'd like to thank Flores for doing Izzy's job for him and giving up the lead.


I can't buy a win right now. Gotta work through these tough losses.

[Biff_Tannen]

Been cold as ice going 0-4 in Interleague so far. I've never hit a 5 game losing streak yet this year (although it will happen), so I'm putting my money in the hands of Rich Harden. A pitcher I can trust to give 110% and who has some of the best stuff I've seen. Harden finally has confidence that his arm is healthy right now. Of course that could change over night, but as of today he feels like he's got his A game. He wanted this matchup against Hudson, and with the way the Braves are playing at home, this line sure hasn't moved much. I think he's slipped back under the radar after quickly hitting the DL again this year. This is his second start back, and he should be much more focused. A's are in the midst of a season worst 4 game losing streak and have lost their last 3 Saturday games after winning their first 3. I told myself that if the A's drop game 1 I'd be on them in game 2, and I'm going to stick with the plan. There's one trend that I can't get over... Braves are 0-10 in Hudson's last 10 interleague starts. I hope somethings just aren't meant to be. Tread lightly, I've gone 7-12 with road underdogs this year. Good Luck.



OAKLAND ATHLETICS +130

*RISKING $300 TO WIN $390

[bigmoe]

I will work on the A's for ya' Biff. Good luck buddy.

[Biff_Tannen]

Keep rubbing that rabbits foot for me Big Moe... I need the A's to hang on here.


Here's my last play today, and it'll continue into tomorrow... granted I win tonight. Padres got some real soft stuff from Batista last night and put up some quick runs...enough to hold on for the win. The bullpen didn't give up a run in 3+ innings. The Padres are bringing two struggling lefties to the Mariners. The M's are hitting .294 against lefties on the year and a nice .333 against LHP at home. Despite this, Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. As well as 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. In fact, they are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a favorite. And yet two huge lines? They're for good reason in my opinion.

Wolf is a poor mans Wandy Rodriguez, and should struggle in a new park because that would be nothing new. Same can be said for Estes tomorrow, who robbed a lot of people against the Cubs already in his first start. Seattle on the other hand is throwing out Bedard and King Felix. Now I'm not 100% sold on either right now, but I'd take those two over Wolf and Estes 100% of the time hands down.

Padres offense is nothing to be concerned about right now, and they've been struggling only 8-17 on the road. The Mariners haven't been much better only 9-13 at home, but they were 49-32 last year. If there was ever a time you'd think the Mariners could pull together two back to back home wins it would be these two days after dropping the first game especially.

M's are just as much against the ropes as the Padres are right now, and I have to side with the home team and it's two aces to bounce back. The M's have lost Bedard's last 3 starts and Hernandez's last 4 starts. The ML chalk isn't an option, close to -170 on both games, so I'm putting them together and getting pretty decent odds... much more my style. Good Luck.


MARINERS (5/17) & MARINERS (5/18) - 2-GAME PARLAY (+155)

*RISKING $300 TO WIN $465

[bigmoe]

Congrats on the A's, Biff. I will work on the M's for you until I nod off.

[Biff_Tannen]

I was afraid you already did with that 9th inning scare.


Good Luck tomorrow Big Moe!



... Bedard pitching lights out, only made 1 mistake, and he's getting horrible run support against the Big Bad Wolf.

[cavorca12]

Thanks Biff. 3R 7th by Sea, rooting for their pen to hold it for you!

[Biff_Tannen]

One run away from having a very nice bounce back day, but I'll take what I can get right now as long as I'm having winning days. The Mariners won tonight thanks to a bomb from Beltre, so they'll be back on my card tomorrow for the 2nd game of the parlay.



--

May ML = (13-13) +$120
May RL = (0-2) -$645
May O/U = (2-2) -$45
May H+R+E = (2-0) +$600
May Parlays = (1-2) -$135


--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,740


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--