~~ BIFF'S BASES - MAY 21st ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Well the day games went very much as I thought they would. I liked the A's and the Rockies under, and those both worked out beautifully. Hopefully that means I'll have a good night and get on a roll here to finish up the month.

First up, the Brew Crew. I like the matchup a lot, as the Brewers are looking to start a winning streak with their ace on the mound. As bad as the Brewers have been on the road, the Pirates have been worse in the past 10 days only hitting .197 against RHP.

Sheets did great in his last start until the 7th inning where he gave up all 6 of the runs charged against him only recording 1 out. Outside of the one start coming off injury, his control has been awesome this year. The same can not be said for Snell who has struggled with control at some point in almost every start. Snell told reporters that he didn't know why he has done so bad this year, and also said he's going to stop nibbling and start trusting his stuff... stuff that has been very mediocre this year on the whole.

This seems like a good spot for Sheets to get his team on track for back to back wins and for the struggling Snell to continue to wonder what's wrong with his arm this year against a potent Brewers lineup that woke up last night. Everyone but Prince got a hit. He should get going tonight as he is 6 for 12 against Snell. I don't expect Gagne to be called in if there is a save situation tonight after giving up a couple last night.


KEY TRENDS...

Pirates are 4-0 in Snells last 4 starts vs. Brewers. (He hasn't won 4 or 5 starts against any other team)
Pirates are 4-0 in Snells last 4 home starts.
Pirates are 0-5 in Snells last 5 starts as a home underdog.
Pirates are 4-12 in Snells last 16 starts as an underdog.

Brewers are 7-1 in Sheets' last 8 road starts.
Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 road games.
Brewers are 6-1 in Sheets' last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.



MAY 21st

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -125

*RISKING $375 TO WIN $300


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May ML = (13-15) -$555
May RL = (1-2) -$270
May O/U = (3-3) -$60
May H+R+E = (2-0) +$600
May Parlays = (2-2) +$330


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,890


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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[Biff_Tannen]

Here's my last play for the night. It doesn't faze me that Reynolds is calling the game and the Over is 6-1 in his 7 games behind the plate this year. I read an article today that put a lot of stock in thinking he was creating runs. His K/BB is the only thing that matters to me, and he is slightly higher than everyone else at close to 1.85 K's per BB. The average is a little under 1.5 K's per BB.

Bottom line for me is that Looper and Young have both had very good success at Petco Park. I don't think Young is laying the -145 because he's going to get 4-5 runs. Padres have only scored 5+ runs 11 times this year. Very little chance of that happening. By comparison the Cardinals have done it 24 times so far this year. I don't think either team scores 5 or even 4 runs tonight. Cards and Padres only put up runs in 1 inning each last night. Young is the ace while Peavy is out, and could be an ace on another team... I think he pitches like one tonight. The Under is 4-0 in Young's last 4 starts against St. Louis, and the Under is 5-0 in Looper's last 5 starts. Those are two trends I'm going to roll with because I didn't see anything from either team to think it could be different tonight.


CARDINALS/PADRES - UNDER 7½ (-120)

*RISKING $360 TO WIN $300

[FlushingHearts]

GL Biff. Cashed with you on MIL, but on the other side of the SDG/STL total. Either way one of us will cash.

GL the rest of the week.

[Biff_Tannen]

I think you're safe in this one Flushing. This game just took a terrible twist. Both battery mates for San Diego are out in the 3rd inning.

Big 6'10" Young fell hard from that hit to the face. I can only pray that he's okay after that. Coming off the bat of Pujols, I can't imagine anything scarier.

Moments later Bard twists his knee from Pujols sliding into him... Padres are not in good shape right now.

[FlushingHearts]

Ouch..I saw that Young got pulled early after giving up 3 singles. Thought it must have been a minor injury. Let's hope he's alright.

I really appreciate your write ups. Keep up the good work!

[Biff_Tannen]

Everything that could go wrong in this Padres game has gone wrong. Just gotta forget it, because there is no lesson to learn in this one for me. A game that had all the makings of an Under in my book and just fell apart... horribly. Back tomorrow.


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May ML = (14-15) -$255
May RL = (1-2) -$270
May O/U = (3-4) -$420
May H+R+E = (2-0) +$600
May Parlays = (2-2) +$330


--

Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,830


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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