Horfin Nuts

[Q-Unit]

Hey man, what teams you thinking about nutting on this year? LMAO

of course I'm stupid so so far I am thinking about Rangers and Royals LOL!

[Daddy Diego]

I got my Swisher Sweets on the A's this year. Peep those sometime this season.

[Q-Unit]

I grabbed this so it would help as a reminder on guidelines for possible candidates this year to try this out.

Originally posted by Horfin
Q-Unit,

Here is the number 1 RULE:

balance unit size
635-1270 $5
1270-1905 $10
1905-2540 $15
2540-3175 $20
3175-3810 $25
3810-4445 $30
4445-5080 $35
5090-5715 $40
5715-6350 $45
6350-6985 $50
6985-7620 $55

LET ME KNOW if your balance is higher.

don't do it if your balance is below $635
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

You are exactly right on the method. 1,2,4,8,16,etc

Also:
Washington is the weak link, but there are two things to realize:

#1 with the win tonight Washington is Now +7.5 units
#2 I messed up a bet early in the season and bet like 8 units on Indy and it was supposed to be on Washington. So washington appears lower and indiana is over-inflated.
#3 Washington scares the SHIT out of me. I think I have gotten to 8 units 3 or 4 times with them and not with the other teams. I have started the over/under with the idea of ultimately replacing one of those for the Washington one. You are/were right washington is the weak link.

Baseball.....I think I got lucky last year (but baseball is what gave me the idea). Originally I did it with the Reds (because I am a reds fan) and my thought process WAS:

The Reds aren't going to lose every game, in fact they will win games at +100 or higher. So how in the hell can I fuck the book? I thought and thought and I came up with the "loss-chase system." And actually QuickNick had something to do with it. I was thinking to myself, if Quick would just double up each time he lost he would nail the book....Actually Stif pointed out that QN would post losers all day and in the Sunday Night Football game he would load up and always win that last one which would make his winning units be big and his record sucked. So all of this came together and I said......If I can make money I don't give a flying crap if my record is 1-50, if I made money I made money which is all I care about. I started out betting way too much on the reds and doubling and doubling and I actually emptied my account like 5 or six times (cost a LOT of money). But I knew the idea was right, I just had to figure out how to do it. I eventually came up with the idea that baseball teams don't usually lose more than 6 straight (except the Blue Jays). I thought the Reds had ONE really good pitcher, ONE average pitcher and two slightly below average pitcher and one pitcher that sucked (starting pitchers). I noticed that (of course) the lines in MLB were based upon the starting pitcher....Like Randy Johnson is always -200 and Dontrel Willis -200 etc. But Arroyyo (REALLY GOOD PITCHER) wasn't this hihg. I also noticed that Johnson and Willis lost often at -200, but with Arroyyo you could get -110 or EVEN. I also noticed that the Reds won when the shitty pitchers played and lost when Arroyyo played. What this meant was you could lose at -150 (with Arroyo) and win (alot) at +120 with the other pitchers.

In sum, it was years of shit I had noticed and stuff other people had told me that I just threw together. I think the key in MLB is to have:
1. a Semi-Sleeper and a bubble team (like the Reds last year...on the verge of the playoffs...this prevents the team from the mid-season sell off of the team)
2. a team with ONLY ONE REALLY GOOD PITCHER.
3. a team with one or two average Pitchers
4. a team with an one below average pitcher
5. a team with a question mark in the fifth spot.
(I am talking about the starting pitchers)

This gets you SO CLOSE to a guarantee that you can taste it and this is the key: you won't lose six straight.
Odds are the Ace (arroyo) or one of the two average pitchers will win at least one game. so no matter were you are in the rotation you won't lose 6 straight. BUT, Arroyo went on a losing streak and I think I hit 6 straight with the reds once.

Hope this helps.

Horfy

[Q-Unit]

was thinkin about the brewers too.

trying to either do one or two teams.

brewers would qualify me thinks cuz they got one good pitcher, and a few mediocre ones, and a pretty young team overall, could be this years tigers.

which brings me to my next question.

in the long run for this system, is it better to win overall, or hit that 4th game of a 3 game losing streak persay?

as in is it better to win 5 in a row betting 10 bucks each time, or hitting that 160 dollar laydown off a 4 game losing streak? (i know the math is there to justify it but im to lazy to do it!)