Cavorca MLB Wed

[cavorca12]

Wed 6/4:

166-199 (-12.21 Units)


Milwaukee -110 ... 1 Unit
Parra has thrown well at home, and Mil has a nice home record. AZ bats haven't been doing a ton. Owings has thrown well on the road and has good day splits, but a lot of his road starts were in P parks and/or vs so-so offenses.

LA Dodgers -133 ... 1.25 Units
Col finally got a W, but I like LAD and Kershaw at home to win the series. LAD have hit Cook decently, and Cook seems to be falling off a bit from his hot start with poor starts in 3 of his L4. Just hoping LAD can get a few off him. Kershaw's debut at home was good and then struggled away at NYM, but home field surroundings should help his adjustment to the bigs.

NY Yankees -132 ... 1.25 Units
Litsch has done fine vs NYY outside of one absolutely horrible start last season, but his BAA splits have been much worse vs LH's (about .300) than RH's (about .227) both this season and last. Coming off L2 great starts, but the NYY LH's could trouble him. Tor also at the tail end of a road trip at Oak, LAA, and now NYY. NYY is 28-30 and have Moose going, who's been decent enough for me, and will have some motivation to end their L streak at 3 and start back to .500.


Another bad day yesterday, but I think I've began to work out some of the issues. Out of time, sure I'll have more later though...

GL

[cavorca12]

LA Angels -122 ... 1 Unit

LAA at Sea Over 8 (-110) ... 1 Unit

Don't have time for a write-up on this. Basically, Silva has struggled recently, and Weaver has had road issues. Still, IMO value w/ LAA team here. But just watch Silva bounce back with a huge start though.....

Most likely on Phi and the Under. Still looking at others, maybe Balt and STL. Could be hard to lay off a small Bos RL play after Beckett's solid L2 and Jackson big struggles @Fenway.

[cavorca12]

OK so far -- 2 W on Mil, LAA/Sea ov and 1 L on LAD. After my recent stretch though, the LAD loss doesn't feel so bad. Some consolation getting the big part correct in Kershaw, but Cook threw well and LAD bats didn't "just get a few off him" like I hoped. Put these 2 in earlier, just now getting time to post.


Philadelphia -108 ... 1 Unit

Cin at Phi Under 9.5 (-115) ... 1.25 Units

Myers has improved L3, off one of his best this year (W vs Fla - 8IP, 6H, 3R, 11K), and he's been better H than Aw. Done ok vs Cin hitters despite an L @Cin earlier. Volquez continues to roll and got a W vsPhi (5IP, 5H, 1R, 8K) early on. No telling if he keeps it up, but solid 2nd starts vs teams that already faced him earlier is a very good sign. He's faced 2 clubs twice, Atl and ChiC - both good hitting clubs. After great gm1, he threw great the 2nd matchup as well, and Cin is 4-0 in his starts vs Atl & ChiC. Volquez typically goes about 6IP, so Cin's mediocre pen could be a factor vs Phi's #1 pen. One thing I noticed on Volquez was LH's hit him better than RH's. Pretty hard to know how to weigh that, but it can't hurt that Phi has some big LH's.

[cavorca12]

Running close with these.....

Pittsburgh +115 ... 0.75 Unit

Hou at Pitt Over 9 (+110) ... 1 Unit

Boston RL +120 ... 0.75 Unit


Just could bring myself to lay off Boston, but IMO there are good reasons behind the play. Anyway, very busy day - still getting to the later games.

[cavorca12]

Accidentally posted this in Biff's thread...ugh...

Cleveland -138 ... 1.25 Units

Baltimore +101 ... 0.75 Unit

Balt at Minn Over 8.5 (-105) ... 0.75 Unit