wednesday turds

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 276-275 (+24.05 units)

LA Angels -115
Orioles +150
White Sux -110
Reds -150
Phillies -165
NY Mets +125
Flubs -165
ASStros -110
SF Lincecums -110
Oakland -120

2 units each

A few chalky ones in there, but I think they're warranted.

Atlanta is absolutely brutal on the road at a PATHETIC 7-22, and facing a very good flubs team who is an extremely impressive 27-8 at Wrigley this year. I don't need any more, as the Flubs are finding ways to win, and the Braves find ways to lose.

The Phils have the best record in baseball vs LHP, and face Miller tonight, who is a struggling lefty, while countering with the quality Hamels and the best bullpen (ERA wise) in baseball behind him. I think the Phils find a way to win, as in addition to these advantages, they are the better team to begin with, as we are starting to see the young upstart Marlins slide back into mediocrity just a bit, while the Phils are steadily moving to the head of the class in the NL, winning 15 of their last 20 games with a very nice combination of good pitching and good hitting. I like their chances of bouncing back to the W column tonight quite a bit, so i'm not gonna let the large number scare me off.

Arizona looks like a gimme with Webb vs the pretty bad Pelfrey, until you look deeper....and see that Ariz can't hit for **** for the last few weeks, and while they're 20-8 vs the rest of the crappy NL west, they are merely 13-21 vs everyone else, and only 14-18 on the road, and are apparently only in first place in the west because the rest of the division sucks worse than they do. Given these numbers, the fact that they're a road fave vs anyone outside their division is, imo, humorous. Brandon Webb is the only thing they have going for them today, and if he's anything but razor sharp, i like the Mutts chances of breaking their 5 game losing streak very much.

Can't believe the God awful Tigers continue to be favored with the God awful Verlander (2-9, 5.05 era) taking the mound and being backed by the 3rd worst bullpen in baseball, and a pen who's only real bright spot this year (Dolsi) chucked 1.2 innings last night, while the White Sux continue to win with some of the most solid pitching in the AL. Don't know which offense will show up for either team, and it's about impossible for me to try and predict, but that play is made on the pitching (starters and pens) exclusively, as the numbers show a huge advantage for the South-siders.

****, i was gonna try to give a little reasoning for all my plays today, but it takes so damn long, and now i'm running out of time....so i'll just post what i have.

GL all

[Stifler's Mom]

Flubs -165 with Dumpster/Jurrjens is no action, but i played it at the new line with Dumpster/Bennett at -180. So basically what I'm saying is that the line for the Flubs play is now -180 instead of -165. I'm not too concerned about the line at anything under -250, as mathematically i believe it to be profitable to play the Flubs every time at anything less than -250 against Atlanta when the game is played in Chicago, unless there are glaring advantages for the Braves somewhere, which I find doubtful in this game.

-300 would indicate the Flubs blindly taking 3 of every 4, which is roughly what i have the match up playing out at between these 2 teams going on this year's current results to this point, like i said, assuming no stand out match up advantages for Atlanta, which i do not see any of tonight.

In other words, according to my numbers, weather it wins or loses tonight, there's still alot of room for me to profit at -180 if i played on the Flubs in this exact same matchup every time it occurred.

If that makes any sense at all, LOL