7 Pitchers to never bet on - or against.

[Biff_Tannen]

I thought it would be nice to see this forum spread some more good reads and not just the same 10 guys picks each day with 2-3 random posters. I've attempted this twice already and it's never amounted to much. I know you boys are on the net reading, if you find some info and say "interesting" just copy and paste it! I think it'd help us all out and we could start some side discussions to put the season in perspective outside of the daily matchups.

I'm a big believer in creating lists or rules to slim down the card each day, for me it makes betting baseball much more manageable over the course of the 162 game season. Some days it felt like a chore capping 12-15 games. I tried to do that for years, and it sucked up way too much of my time given how much I was betting at the time. Since working it down to 4-6 games each day, I've been able to make betting sports a profitable hobby instead of a 2nd full-time job.

I have a list I use similar to this one of "pitchers to never bet on" and it has 5 of the names he listed, I think I'm adding the other 2 now. I might add Bronson Arroyo, Barry Zito... maybe A.J. Burnett to this list. If any of you guys got similar things you use to "filter" games each day... LET'S HEAR 'EM!



--Start Article


Nover: Stay away from these seven pitchers
By STEPHEN NOVER | June 25, 2008

Stephen Nover is a Covers Experts handicapper.

The late, great George Carlin had his seven words you could never say on television. In Carlin’s memory, I present the seven pitchers you can never bet on – or against.

These pitchers are way too unpredictable. They are either great, or horrendous. Get involved in one of their games and chances are you’ll be repeating some of Carlin’s seven words.

Maybe Carlin could appreciate the humor and wickedness of Oliver Perez, Tim Wakefield, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Davies, Brian Moehler, Seth McClung and Jorge De La Rosa. Thanks to these miscreants, my baseball bankroll is considerably shorter this season.

Oliver Perez (Mets) – The king of all or nothing. He’s capable of throwing a no-hitter. He’s just as capable of not retiring a batter.

Tim Wakefield (Red Sox) – This guy has been bedeviling me since he was with the Pirates. I paid $16 for him at my 1996 fantasy baseball auction and was rewarded with a 5.15 ERA in 211 2/3 innings. Not only did he destroy my team ERA, but he killed my WHIP by surrendering 328 combined hits and walks.

I haven’t touched Wakefield since, so of course the guy is good now. He’s still a 41-year-old knuckelballer, though, which means randomness. He gave up eight earned runs at Oakland on May 23. Following that he’s yielded only 10 earned runs in his last five starts.

Kyle Kendrick (Phillies) – I’ve never liked him. He may be the luckiest pitcher in the Majors given the great run support Philadelphia has given him. Naturally he loses for only the second time in his last 12 starts when I finally decide to play on him.

Kendrick has a 5.06 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Yet, the Phillies are 11-4 in his starts. The Phillies have averaged 6.7 runs in Kendrick’s last 23 starts going back to last year.

Kyle Davies (Royals) – Remind me to never bet a Davies’ game to go under the total like I did this past Sunday, even if it’s against the Giants. There only were 21 runs scored. I considered Davies one of the worst pitchers and was surprised to see him resurface in the big leagues late last month.

But until that Giants game, where he gave up five runs on six hits and two walks while failing to reach the second inning, Davies had allowed just one earned run in each of his previous four starts. A lot of pitchers can get lucky once, but Davies did it four straight times.

Brian Moehler (Astros) – My God the stiff won again on Tuesday with another well-pitched effort. The guy came into this season with a 20-37 record during the past seven years, having pitched for four different clubs. Some of his ERA’s during this span were 7.90, 6.51 and 6.02.

This year Moehler has held foes to three or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine starts. Fading Moehler while playing the over has been a disastrous approach. The under is 7-1-1 during Moehler’s past nine appearances.

Seth McClung (Brewers) - Here’s another journeyman type that has risen from the discard pail to actually solidify a starting spot by pitching well. When the Brewers brought him up last month, Milwaukee manager Ned Yost said something like we’ll give him a shot and see what happens. It wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement.

Not that McClung was worthy of inspiring much confidence. He had two of the worst years ever in 2005 and 2006 pitching for Tampa Bay. McClung pitched 109 1/3 innings in 2005. He gave up 106 hits, 62 walks and 20 homers. His ERA was 6.59.

McClung was just as consistently bad in 2006, pitching 103 innings and surrendering 120 hits, 14 homers, and having a 59-to-68 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA was 6.29.

This is a pitcher you want to fade, right? All McClung has done in his last three starts is yield five earned runs in 18 innings with a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies) – De La Rosa finally started living up to my opinion of him as the worst starting pitcher in the Majors, by pitching poorly Tuesday in a loss to the Royals. Prior to that game, though, De La Rosa had given up three earned runs in his last two starts versus the Indians and White Sox, with an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.


--End Article

[Biff_Tannen]

Seriously fellas... nothing? Everybody here caps all 15 games each day?

[Daws1089]

It may be simple but I don't bet on any favorite more than -200. So they are crossed off of my list. Just not worth risking that much to me.

[Biff_Tannen]

Thanks Daws... yeah playing heavy favorites are no good. I try and draw the line at -170 myself. Although it'd be rare to see me lay more than -140 on a single bet. Anything over -200 is inflated no matter who's pitching.

I also don't bet on or against teams on a win streak if they become an underdog. If a team gets on a 5 game win streak I usually will only bet on them as home favorites.

Another one I've sort of adapted is not betting on a pitcher who hasn't made at least 1 home and 1 road start. Just another example of inconsistency that can cost you money.

The whole point of me making these lists is to weed out all the games where "anything could happen" grated that can be any game, but some are much more prone if you ask me. Once you stop playing these risky games things start going much more to plan.


Anybody else got methods they use to slim the card down each day??

[wsox08]

For starters, I usually try avoiding rivalry games since a lot more can play into it.

[tampayay]

Yea,,,


Zito

Nolosco

Sabathia

Santana

[Irish Brigade]

Biff I have a couple to put down but really b usy right now so will get back to you on it

[FlushingHearts]

Randy Wolf I'm always on the wrong side of his starts... like 1-7 this year.

Washburn....

I also don't go over the -170 mark unless its a game that I'm chasing a bit and feel strongly about. I'll always kill the juice with a RL if its a strong offensive team. My new rule is to never play a home teams RL. You lose value if they are up by 1 (3 outs to score) and you need a walk off 2 run homer to win (i.e-Youuuukilis last weekend!!! I love you Kevin)...

I got some more, but busy right now...

GL

[Biff_Tannen]

Originally Posted by FlushingHearts

Randy Wolf I'm always on the wrong side of his starts... like 1-7 this year.

Washburn....

I also don't go over the -170 mark unless its a game that I'm chasing a bit and feel strongly about. I'll always kill the juice with a RL if its a strong offensive team. My new rule is to never play a home teams RL. You lose value if they are up by 1 (3 outs to score) and you need a walk off 2 run homer to win (i.e-Youuuukilis last weekend!!! I love you Kevin)...

I got some more, but busy right now...

GL

Crazy how that one swing of the bat affected so much money in the world... And then he gets popped in the eye the next night.

I suggest 2 team parlays. They kill massive amounts of juice and you always get plus odds. It's always much easier if your book posts lines a day early so you have two days of games to choose from.

[wsox08]

Originally Posted by Biff_Tannen

Crazy how that one swing of the bat affected so much money in the world... And then he gets popped in the eye the next night.

I suggest 2 team parlays. They kill massive amounts of juice and you always get plus odds. It's always much easier if your book posts lines a day early so you have two days of games to choose from.

I like the 2 team parlays too. I noticed you've been doing 2 day parlays with the same team. 5 dimes doesn't offer that (I don't think).



Also, I usually stay away from games where a pitcher is making his ML debut.

[FultonStreetBlues]

You don't bet every game but you certaintly don't take potential winners off the board. There maybe certain ways to play certain pitchers. Take today for an example. Jose Contreas a week ago gave up 8 runs to the Cubs at Wrigley, today he get the benefit of getting a 7 run inning from the White Sox at home. I think you have to look at the situation of the pitcher and not just leave a pitcher alone.

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by FultonStreetBlues

I don't believe in having pitchers you cannot bet on for or against

I disagree! 1 pitcher I have bet on many times this season: Tim Redding

Look at the stats: TR w-l is 6-3 (no big deal)

However, in the 17 games TR has pitched this year, the Nats are 14-3 +1394

Its not just the w-l record, or era, look at what the team has done with the starting pitcher!

[Biff_Tannen]

Originally Posted by homedawg

I disagree! 1 pitcher I have bet on many times this season: Tim Redding

Look at the stats: TR w-l is 6-3 (no big deal)

However, in the 17 games TR has pitched this year, the Nats are 14-3 +1394

Its not just the w-l record, or era, look at what the team has done with the starting pitcher!

Ohh Redding... I think he'll turn into a firework show this summer for some reason. Not trying to throw you off.

Similar is J. Sanchez.... Giants are now 12-4 in games he's started.



As for eliminating pitchers Fulton... WHY NOT??
Every team is a "potential" winner just like black 10 could potentially hit 10 times in a row on a roulette board. But there are pitchers that are much more consistent and much more worthy of my money on any given day then others. Crossing off 2-3 games a day because I have no idea what to expect from a pitcher seems very logical. It's definitely helped me to continue betting sports even when work piles up.

[homedawg]

It dont matter to me, as long as I can catch TR as a dog!

[FultonStreetBlues]

know when to hold em and know when to fold em. Yah fade Oliver Perez when he -200 vs Seattle but you might tail him when he is +110 vs Yankees. Its sometimes as simple as the price.