Thursday Baseball Discussions

[Underdog88]

I really want to try & post reasoning for my plays, as I seem to do better when I post reasoning. Today I have a little time, so I figured we could get something going throughout the day.



One game that I have my eye on is the Brewers/Zona matchup. I was on the over in games 1 & 2, then layed off last night completely. Tonight I have a couple strong leans in this one. Zona team over (4.5-105), & Webb on the ml. Of course Webb will be very public today, which always worries me. However I think the line is set a bit low, mainly because of Parra's 8-2 record. The Brewers did beat the DBacks @ home 10-1 last time Parra faced them. He went 7 innings, allowing just 4 hits & 1er. However, when I look into his stats a bit deeper, there are hints that Parra may be getting a bit too much respect. One is his 1.55 whip, & another is his road stats. 34.1 ip, 43 hits & 22 er. with an opp. ba of .321! In his last 4 road starts he has made it to the 6th inning one time. IMO this is where it could get ugly for the Brewers, because in the last 3 nights the pen has put quite some time in. McClung, Suppan & Bush have all gome under 5.2 ip, with 11 total inning of relief pitching. Possible tired pen for Zona to exploit.

Webb's home success has been well documented- he has struggled, getting hit hard vs the A's. I don't think he gets hit hard today. One thing he has going for him is the bats seem to warm up for Zona when he's on the mound. The Backs have scored 5+ runs in 5 of his 7 home starts. The two that failed to go over 4 runs scored? The A's blowout loss and a 4-0 cg shutout of Washington. Often there is a perception that a great pitcher will reult in an under, but 4 of Webb's home starts resulted in 8+ runs for Zona, so I wouldn't go anywhere the under in this one.


back in a second with a couple more thoughts...

[gadfly36]

like your reasoning udog, gl

[Underdog88]

Thanks gadfly! Nobody else likes any games today




What about the A's as dogs with Duchscherer in the mound? Very tough to go against the Sox at home, especially since they've won 7 straight. However, you clearly get the better pitcher with the A's. Vazquez has benefitted from a powerhouse offense, but it's not like he's dominating anyone. He's given up 4+ er in his last 5 starts! During that span he's gone 27.2 ip & has given up 38 hits 23 er & 15bb. The A's won 1 of 3 in LAA, which is kind of expected. A's team total o3.5 looks pretty good to me given Vazquez's recent showings.....


Considering a parlay with the A's+1.5-190 in it. Possibly with Webb, still deciding. Really high juice for a rl, but the White Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games by 1 run.

[Underdog88]

Tigers a road fave when they're 17-25 on the road. Verlander 1-5 in 7 road starts, & everyone is lining up to fade Silva. I backed him his last outing mainly as a SD fade. Though today is a bit more risky, IU don't see how you can back the road fave here. IMO Seattle +1.5-135 has more value.

Kind of the same feelings on the Dodgers as a road fave. No problems with Billingsley, but LAD's offense is suspect....

[wsox08]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Tigers a road fave when they're 17-25 on the road. Verlander 1-5 in 7 road starts, & everyone is lining up to fade Silva. I backed him his last outing mainly as a SD fade. Though today is a bit more risky, IU don't see how you can back the road fave here. IMO Seattle +1.5-135 has more value.

Kind of the same feelings on the Dodgers as a road fave. No problems with Billingsley, but LAD's offense is suspect....

Does the total at 8.5 for the Det-Sea game seem a little low to you?

Verlander 44 IP, 42 hits, 26 runs, 21 walks on the road

Silva overall 99 2/3 IP, 130 hits..


Seems like if both teams can pile on a string of hits this one could go over.