monday playoff turds

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 18-14 (+9.65 units)
series plays 2-1 (+2.40 units)
overall 20-15 (+12.05 units)

Pending series play on TB +110

Today:

Boston Red Sux -175

2 units

Some reasoning later....

[Stifler's Mom]

Adding:

BOS/TB under 8.5 (-115)

2 units

Side:

This line looks way too low, although I suppose anything can certainly happen between 2 good teams....I'm still taking my chances with the chalk here. BOS needs to win this game 63.63% of the time for me to break even at -175, and I don't really see a sign that DOESN'T point to Boston having a better chance than that to win this game. I know this is all "on paper" and they still have to go out and play the game, but these stats are damn convincing....

Just the ones easily found:

Home team is 16-4 (80%) in this series for the season

Boston is 7-2 (77.77%) @ home in this series for the season

Boston is 56-25 (69%) @ home for the regular season

Tampon Bay is 40-41 (49%) on the road for the season

Lester is 11-1 (91.66%) at home this season, and hasn't lost there since April

Garza is 4-6 (40%) on the road this season, including a rough outing last time @ CWS

Lester is 4-0 (100%) career vs TB

Lester is 3-0 (100%) this season vs TB with an 0.90 ERA

Lester is 11-0 (100%) his last 15 starts with a 1.78 ERA

Lester is 2-0 (100%) in 3 starts this postseason, having given up ZERO earned runs in 19 2/3 innings.

I also like the "momentum" shift for BOS, with it being the first game of this ALCS being played at Fenway. If you look back at the first game being played @ any particular stadium in any particular series, the home team is blindly 7-4 (oddly enough, that equtes to exactly the 63.63% needed to break even @ -175 odds).

If you take away the home games for the Flubs and Angels, who did exactly nothing this post season, it becomes a stronger 5-2 (71.42%), with even the terrible Brewers beating the Phillies.

If you take it to ONLY game 3's like today, where a team is returning home after 2 road games, the home team is blindly 5-1. Boston took the only loss here, but that can be easily explained because crappy Josh "batting practice" Beckett pitched that game vs LAA, plus BOS was up 2-0 and wasn't in danger of falling behind in the series with a loss.

I just see no way TB is legitimately a "live dog" this afternoon, so I'm gonna ride the hot left arm of Lester, and the seemingly HUGE home field advantage on this play.

Total:

As far as the under goes, I think it's easy to see that I don't like TB to score much this afternoon, and why, and I'm hoping Garza can hold up his end of the bargain as well, as he's been pretty respectable this year, although admittedly he has been far better @ home.

I also like the mid afternoon start here, as shadows are bound to come into play at some point giving the pitchers the advantage for 2 innings or so.

[FlyersFan]

Holiday Monday playoff Turds............

BOS wins this one at home i agree.......

[gadfly36]

Stif, I'm with you on the under but I wont go near the ml or rl. TB has owned the sox the last two series, home and away. Earlier in the year it was home team wins but when it counted the Rays came thru. Actually the more I think about this with the positive line i'm gonna put a unit or so on the Rays. good luck, at least one of us will hit

[Billy The Kid]

GL Still on the under as well. Completely agree with the Sox play as well. Like Lester to continue to be dominate and Sox bullpen has been strong aside from Timlin who we wont see the remainder of the playoffs IMO.

[FlyersFan]

here is what i don't understand.....if you like the under then i don't like a Red Sox play. Garza has been either awesome or awful. There is very little in between with him. I had him on my fantasy team and it was either a CGSO or 7 runs and 6 walks in 3 innings. I don't like him in this spot which is why i like the Red Sox and i love Lester after watching him live the other night dealing in Anaheim. My feeling is that the Red Sox get to Garza and this game has a feeling of the game last night between LA and PHI. If you like the under than you are betting that Garza pitches well and in that case i don't see laying -180 or -200 in what you're saying will be a close game.

Just my thoughts but it's either Red Sox and Over or Tampa and the Under, IMO. I see no reason why lester shouldn't pitch well and the only reason i say TAM and the Under is because if you're picking a side in a close game, i would much rather have +180 than -200.

But i think Stinky Garza shows up tonight........7-3 Boston....

[Stifler's Mom]

Lester has been untouchable, and I don't see any reason to step out and predict that will end now, so predicting 3 for TB seems a bit of stretch, imho. Not that it couldn't happen, i mean hell, they could get 8 off him in the first and he might never record an out, but if you go on fact, and not what MIGHT happen, i can see nothing other than Lester shutting TB down again today. Therefore, if TB wins, I think it'll be more like 2-1 and because Garza gives a superior effort as well, rather than because TB wins a slugfest.

So now to the under.....normally it takes 2 to make an over, especially in the playoffs (minus the awesome effort from Moyer last night....which still barely crept over the 8). If you look back at all the overs so far in the playoffs, I believe one common thread between nearly all of them is that both teams put up runs, not one team winning like 9-2....so since I like Lester to shut down TB, I can't like anything BUT the under....as there's no way i can expect BOS to get 8 or 9 runs themselves. Not that it can't happen, but i'm betting on what i think is most likely to happen, not what could possibly happen.

Plus like i said, i like the fact that there should be some shadows creeping across the infield for a while this afternoon, and that always plays against the hitters as well.

[FlyersFan]

well it appears to be the good Garza that showed up today........when he's not walking guys he's usually solid. Under should be good here but it's going to be crap shoot on BOS now i think. I was banking on Shitty Garza....

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL @ Lester. Congrats to anyone who broke out their crystal ball and predicted he would suck today and took either TB or the over

[gadfly36]

im loving the rays here but damn the under doesnt look good.

[Stifler's Mom]

Phils +175
Phils/LAD u 7.5 105

2 units each

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

LOL @ Lester. Congrats to anyone who broke out their crystal ball and predicted he would suck today and took either TB or the over

lol...tell me about it....i did like the Over but for the complete opposite result. i thought BOS would hammer Garza and then the Bos bullpen would pony up a couple late ones.....

[FlyersFan]

LMFAO...i had BJ Upton on a fantasy team this year and he didn't do shit for the last 4 months...he was the human strikeout. I think he had like 6 extra base hits from June on....now the dude is Reggie Jackson in the postseason.......

[FlyersFan]

dang stif if i didn't have the scenario perfect on the Sox game....just in reverse.....big lead and them some chump from the Boston bullpen coughing up 2 or 3 late.....only i expected it to be 7-1 Boston when they did that, not 6-1 Tampa........

[FlyersFan]

adios los doyers....no way they win the series now down 3-1 and heading to PHI for 2 at the end of the series where they didn't win all year long......