Tuesday 4/7

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 5-2 (+5.31 units)

White Sux -127 & rl +165

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

I remember when there weren't as many bets on KC for a whole year than what I've seen just today, lol

In all seriousness though, Buehrle was 11-3 at home last year (team was 14-3 in his 17 home starts) with a 2.65 era, as opposed to 4-9 on the road (team was 4-13 in his 17 road starts) with an ERA above 5. Clearly he knows how to pitch at US Cellular.

One worry for me is that KC was amongst the leaders of the pack vs LHP last year at a very nice 34-22, although they failed to do much vs Buehrle in Chicago.

Gonna go with the proven result here and expect a strong start from Buehrle, instead of backing what "might be this year" with KC, and see how it turns out...

[Daws1089]

yea really, I don't understand all of the KC bets either? What did they do in the off season to get so much better?

[Stifler's Mom]

I forgot to do it yesterday, but I decided towards the end of last season that this year I am going be playing 1/2 unit on the RL on every fave I play on the ml....at least to start the season, and see how it turns out. I believe it's profitable in the sense that the faves who win the game win by 2+ plenty often to make laying the -1.5 run profitable.

And, for anyone who cares to see how it works out, I'm going to keep a separate track of rl plays with my ytd instead of just lumping them in with the ml plays.

So with that being said, probably every fave that I pick that wins will win by 1 run until like mid-May

adding:

Boston Red Sux -147 & rl +135

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl


BOS is this big of a fave for a reason, imo. It's not like no one realizes TB doesn't suck anymore at this point, yet you can still get this big of a line to back them?? Something just doesn't feel right to me about taking TB today, so I checked to see If i could possibly find why this line is relatively high to back last year's AL world series representative, other than the obvious that people will still just bet on Beckett/Boston because it's Beckett/Boston (much like the Yankees and some other pitchers/teams)

So without digging to incredibly far, here's what I found....

While dominant at home last year, Shields was an average Joe on the road, with TB going 8-8 in his 16 road starts, and his ERA approaching 5. Not bad, but not great either....and if this were the only real slightly negative factor in the game for TB other than what's obvious on the surface, this line may be about right.

The interesting part for me here is that he was 0-2 @ Fenway, lasting a total of 4.2 innings between 2 different starts, and posting a stellar 21.21 ERA in the process. That's bad. I don't expect anything that pathetic today, but if history is any indicator, the Red Sux should at least get some runs here and there off the guy.

In addition, the Red Sux are always one of the best home teams in baseball year after year, and they are probably a bit tired of hearing the talk of how they're gonna miss the playoffs this year, with TB and NYY both all but penciled in ahead of them on most expert's final scorecards.

Plus the old playoff revenge angle.

Hope Beckett can avoid getting any blisters on his vagina for at least one game....

[Hoosier]

loving it Stif!

[Underdog88]

GL today Stif

[DukiesBaby]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Hope Beckett can avoid getting any blisters on his vagina for at least one game....

Good luck today

[Daws1089]

awesome finish for CWS for ya

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

Jays -111 & rl +170

Edwin Jackson still blows, imo, and Purcey dominated the Tigresses 2x last year for just over 10 innings total. Bullpen advantage for the Jays still applies, and I still think Detroit is going nowhere this year. Jackson and the Tigers are an EZ fade at this price, imho....

Philly -105 & rl +180

Braves were 21-32 vs LHP last year and an ass kicking 29-52 on the road. That's a double whammy. I can see why people are going against Moyer too, but that's just not how I cap. I don't care if "Moyer sucks". People have been saying that about him for the last 10 years, lol. I'll give him and the Phils a shot at getting something going tonight because I see some stuff that could work nicely in my favor....granted though, it is from last year's stats.

Twins -107 & rl +180

Being stubborn and fading Seattle on the road again, even though they looked good last night and the Twinkies looked like cat turd, because the home/away numbers from last year tell me to. Blackbum was on of the best home pitchers in baseball last year too....so lets see if the Twinkies can't turn it around and get win #1 tonight against last year's worst road team in MLB.

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl each

Yes, I realize I am capping some of these games based on stats from teams who are not entirely the same....but at the same time I am trying to be selective and only use the info from last season that I feel has a good chance of applying to this year's squads as well.

[FlyersFan]

wow....2 blown saves in your favor to start the year.......

[akatdrake]

Heck of a great start today! With ya on the Jays and Twins tonight!! Get 'em bud!

[Stifler's Mom]

Phils suck. Moyer didn't do great, but he at least gave em a chance. Too bad their offense sucks balls.

And what's up with the Mariners? I'm done fading them on the road until they give me probable cause. May no longer be an effective angle....

I see the Jays finally took advantage of that crappy Tigers pitching. Took em long enough. Unfortunately I see they have already given it back in the 9th

adding 2 late games:

LAD/SD under 7.5 -120

SD couldn't hit LHP for **** last year. Nor could they hit anything else for that matter. Young a quality arm in his own right. Pitchers park. Hopefully no one reaches 5.

Oakland A'holes +100

Angels are a beat up bunch, and Cahill is supposed to have potential. Lets see if that revamped (and unfortunately old) A's offense can get some off crappy ass Moseley tonight, who was a total turd last year when given a chance in the majors.

2 units each

[FlyersFan]

stiflermoms....3 for 3 on the right side of blown saves.......


also, not sure what you mean by ANA is beat up other than lackey and a couple of pitchers. Nothing wrong with that lineup 1-9.