Wednesday 4/8

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 11-3 (+15.21 units)
fave rl's 2-3 (even)
overall 13-6 (+15.21 units)

favorites winning by 1 run: 2 out of 5

Boston Red Sux -145 & rl +135

2 units ml / 1/2 unit rl

Contrary to most who seem to be thinking that getting TB @ +135 or so fresh off their WS appearance is a huge value, and that they (TB) are getting no respect, I feel exactly the opposite. Like I said yesterday, a team who made the World Series just a few months ago is hardly being overlooked by oddsmakers at this point. There is clearly reasoning why this line is what it is, and if you ask me, it should be higher.

Bosox were 56-24 @ home last year, and 15-2 in Lester's 17 home starts. Bosox were also 25-13 in games in which they faced a left handed starter. Those are all strong numbers, imho.

And although I am backing Boston and Lester, not fading Kazmir or TB here, the fact that Kazmir was 0-2 with an era of 9.00 in 4 starts vs Boston last year didn't exactly hinder my decision.

These are all regular season numbers, and of course TB did beat Lester 2x in the ALCS, for what it's worth, and of course anything CAN happen....but betting on what is more likely to happen rather than what might happen just because the price looks nice is something I have thought about during the time i wasn't betting, and realized I was falling victim to far too often in baseball.

I like the Sox chances of winning tonight more than the approximately 60% of the time I would need for this price to be profitable.

More in a bit.....

[Stifler's Mom]

Minnesota Twins -162 & rl +125

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

The fact that Carlos Silva is someone's #3 starter is bordering on hilarious to me. Next thing you know Billy Koch will be the Mariners closer

Seriously though, going from King Felix/Bedard at #1 and #2 to the pathetic Carlos Silva at #3? That's like going from a Bentley to a Pinto.

Even more so than the prime opportunity of fading Mr Silva at less than -200 though, is that I feel a perennial loser team like the M's will have a hard time bouncing back from the rough blown save/defeat they suffered last night, and may come out a bit flat in this spot.

Carlos Silva.....fade him while you can.....

[Stifler's Mom]

KC Royals -102 & ALT rl (-1.5) +150

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

The White Sux looked old and slow yesterday. KC, on the other hand, lost that game only because they were completely unable to capitalize on the google plex of opportunities to score that they had vs Buehrle, for whatever reason. Well, then again there was Farnsworthless....but had the Royals scored even 2 or 3 of the 97 guys it seemed they left on base, that 3 run homer to Thome probably still wouldn't have been enough to win it for CWS.

What I'm saying, is that in watching that game, I would say that it was pretty clear that KC the team with more potential overall. I was not impressed with what I saw from the Dirty Sox, as they looked even older and slower than last year.

Interesting to note, that KC -1.5 on the ALT RL is only +150, but the White Sux RL -1.5 is +180, which is why I made a play on it. I do realize that the home team is less likely statistically to cover a RL for obvious reasons (if both teams have the same expectations as far as % of times they will win), but this is a big difference. For example, the Jays are -1.5 +150 on the RL, while the road team Detroit Tigers are -1.5 +180 on the ALT RL, even though the 2 games started with similar lines (about 10 cents more for TOR than CHW).

This is (to me) a strong indicator that sharper money is taking KC, both on the ml and ALT rl, much more so than enough to outweigh the 60%+ of the "square" bets coming in on the White Sux ml & rl.

[Stifler's Mom]

Toronto Blue Jays -128 & rl +150

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

Still seems like a great price to fade the Tigresses and their terrible bullpen. Zach Miner gets the start, and while there is really nothing special about him, he's probably not worthy of fading for no good reason either....but once again, when you talk Tigers, after the SP leaves, it can really only go downhill from there once that Detroit bullpen rears their ugly head. This is important because Miner averaged about 5.5 IP last year per start, so that's 3.5 innings of the awesome Detroit bullpen, on average.

Litsch on the other hand had a nice home record last year (7-3 - 2.77 era), and one good start vs Detroit in which he gave up no runs in 7 ip. Nothing to fear there, and despite blowing a save opportunity last night, I don't see any reason to be afraid of the Jays pen either.

And also, like the M's, I believe Detroit may have a hard time bouncing back on the road from blowing a late lead last night, and the momentum may be all on the Jays side to make it 3 straight in this series tonight.

[Hoosier]

love the Red Sox again tonight Stif. not sure it gets much better than a 1, 2 combo of Beckett and Lester. Sox own Kazmir. let's get it!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

The fact that Carlos Silva is someone's #3 starter is bordering on hilarious to me.

Thought the same thing. Talk about a dropoff. That guy should be a last place teams #5 starter at best.

Also look at the Padres #3...another "Silva" who's a 32 year old rookie, who was languishing in the friggin Mexican league for years....

It's fade #3 starters named "Silva" night for me...lol.

GL

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Thought the same thing. Talk about a dropoff. That guy should be a last place teams #5 starter at best.

Also look at the Padres #3...another "Silva" who's a 32 year old rookie, who was languishing in the friggin Mexican league for years....

It's fade #3 starters named "Silva" night for me...lol.

GL

LOL I know....I'm about 5 minutes from fading Silva #2 myself, so long as I don't find anything that I don't like on the LAD side

LAD looks like a good play on the surface tomorrow too, with Kershaw vs Correia

[Daws1089]

gl stif. I like your write ups. Always make a strong case for your bets.

[Stifler's Mom]

NY Mets +108 & ALT rl (-1.5) +150
LA Dodgers -170 & RL -110

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl each

Running out of time to do write ups, but I don't think there's anyone who would argue that the Mets aren't a better team than the Reds. With that being said, I don't buy this Volquez guy after a half of a good season last year, then starting to fall back to being avergae/bad.

This is just (imo) a bad number, based on expectations of Volquez to be continue to be lights out, which i think are unrealistic.

Pelfrey is the wildcard, as he wasn't so hot in spring training....but getting the Mets as a dog to the Reds with only 1 ? is something that looks worthy of taking a chance on to me.

Dodgers are just better than the Padres, and from what I can find, this Silva didn't even have good numbers (some were downright bad) in the Mexican AAA league.

Also, I like LAD w/Kershaw again tomorrow, so in the case the Dodgers fail to get the win tonight, I will probably try to cut into some of the damage of losing with a -170 fave taking the Dodgers to avoid losing 3 of 4 to open the season to SD, and for the horrible vs LHP Padres not to beat 2 lefties in the same series....with the second lefty (Kershaw) is (imo) more talented than the first (Wolf).

[Stifler's Mom]

SF Giants +102

2 units

I was going to stop at the first 6, but something keeps bringing me back to this play. I don't have any real strong reasoning to really back it up, but I do know that I feel like SF is a big time sleeper in the NL West this year, while Milwaukee really hasn't done much to improve themselves.

Maybe I'm way off base here, but I'm just not thrilled with the Brewers, who I don't think would even have a winning record (speaking of last season) if they weren't in the sub-par NL Central.

I just don't think they are likely to be good enough to spoil the Unit's bay area debut tonight, Gallardo or not.

[Underdog88]

Agree with SF as well, but opted for the over. GL