Run Line Thoughts

[wsox08]

I was looking at run lines today specifically -1.5 for both teams. Does anyone know or have statistics of what percentage of games in past years have been one run games? Would it be profitable to play both teams on the -1.5 (as long as both are + odds) in the long run? I'm just throwing something out there and I'm guessing it's not profitable but I found it interesting because I think like at least 75% of the previous Sox-Royals games have been more than one run games. Any thoughts?

[wsox08]

anyone?

[Biff_Tannen]

I don't have the numbers to give you, but I will offer my two cents. Blanket betting in any consistent fashion has a greater chance of losing money than making money in my opinion. Especially when dealing with RL as they are meant to suck bettors in to get plus odds on a favorite. I'd really have to think hard before laying -1.5 with a home team as they are more prone to win by 1... e.g. no bottom of the ninth and bottom of the 9th rally scenarios. Best bet is to look for certain situations such as a team's closer being unavailable that night and track those situational games for a month to see how those fair. Keep us posted if you do!

[V3r1f13d]

I have won more on RL's (-1.5), than have lost by 1 run.
That's really what it comes down to.
If the team loses, then no harm done. In fact you saved a little money since you didn't play the minus, you went 1 for + whatever.

I think I have lost the RL due to only winning by a run, maybe 4 or 5 times in my life. Have played it maybe 100 times.

Obviously its just me and my opinion, no hard stats here...

[wsox08]

Originally Posted by V3r1f13d

I have won more on RL's (-1.5), than have lost by 1 run.
That's really what it comes down to.
If the team loses, then no harm done. In fact you saved a little money since you didn't play the minus, you went 1 for + whatever.

I think I have lost the RL due to only winning by a run, maybe 4 or 5 times in my life. Have played it maybe 100 times.

Obviously its just me and my opinion, no hard stats here...

yeah I think mostly the same. Any thoughts on taking the RL -1.5 for both teams when they're both + so if either team wins by more than 1 then you profit, even though it might be small? I'm not saying it would be profitable but I'm just throwing stuff out there.

[tampayay]

I mean i have thought about it in terms of other sports also, for example bball, taking a favorite ats and a dog ML, kinda the same concept as the fav RL and dog RL. The possibility exists in bball with the fav winning Su and not covering, and same as baseball with the fav winning by only 1 run.. food for thought... Only done it once and the dog one staight up, but don;t think it is a good blanket method...

[Loaded Shooter]

A few years back I tried to blanket bet the NBA with fav's ATS and ML dogs. Honestly, I did not have the fortitude to keep up with all the wagers and track them. I recall it being in the red after a few weeks. Horfin, actually, at the same time was doing the same thing and recording it much more efficiently. He may be able to offer some insight with the NBA perspective of this.

As far as Baseball, I always seem to get boned by the RL. Just yesterday I had STL -1.5. (Pitt scores on 2 goof ups by Pujols, no less. Then STL has bases loaded in the 7th with no outs and 1 legged Molina gets thrown out at the plate from right field with Pujols coming to the plate .) I am definitely not a fan of home fav RL's. On the flip side, Road fav RL's may be a good angle. They are either going to pile up the runs or give the home team hope.

Trust me, I am just a blind squirrel, and I am sure there are much more educated anwers to this question.

[BoilerBacker]

Playing run line faves on a home team is a losing proposition. 17% of games are won by the home team by one run. 10% are won by the away team by one run. The difference is due to the fact that a home team bats last and will win most extra inning games by 1 or games that they come back and win in the ninth.

[V3r1f13d]

Originally Posted by wsox08

yeah I think mostly the same. Any thoughts on taking the RL -1.5 for both teams when they're both + so if either team wins by more than 1 then you profit, even though it might be small? I'm not saying it would be profitable but I'm just throwing stuff out there.

I have never even seen lines like that. I play local, so I dont get the offers that the online players get. My RLs are plus one way and minus another.

Doesnt sound like a bad idea, especially if you have 2 horrible pitchers on the mound. Someone is bound to get blown out...

[wsox08]

Originally Posted by V3r1f13d

I have never even seen lines like that. I play local, so I dont get the offers that the online players get. My RLs are plus one way and minus another.

Doesnt sound like a bad idea, especially if you have 2 horrible pitchers on the mound. Someone is bound to get blown out...

Like today

Cincinnati -1.5 +115
Pittsburgh -1.5 +220

NYM -1.5 +125
FL -1.5 +210

Hou -1.5 +195
STL -1.5 +150


LAD -1.5 +155
AZ -1.5 +160

etc

[FlyersFan]

i think run lines are gay