Saturday 4/11

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 18-13 (+7.13 units)
fave rl's 5-9 (-1 unit)
overall 23-22 (+6.13 units)
1 run losses on fave rl: 3 of 14

2 bad days in a row, after 3 good ones.

Barry Zito blows.....

Some weird lines at first glance today (OAK/SEA with King Felix and a Seattle team who is playing decent all but a pick em against OAK and an unknown rookie, and maybe BAL/TB with BAL actually being favored over someone, lol) and some dogs with huge value too, as a few pretty bad teams are rather large faves (DET & SD).

For now, I have 2 that were on my radar from yesterday already, as I knew both of these lines would come out at what I feel are both quite off:

Jays -128 & rl +130
Texas +159

2 units each ml & 1/2 unit rl

+159 to fade Verlander and that ****ty Tigers pen against probably the best hitting offense in the majors? Wow. I'll take my chances with Marvin Harrison and whoever else the Rangers parade out there.

Only -128 to take Halladay over Lee, the Jays pen over the crappy Tribe pen, and the team who is winning over the team who is losing?

More later....

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Barry Zito blows.....

....

file that under things that haven't changed but were forgotten over the winter....

GL!...today...

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

Pirates +126

2 units

[manmythlegend]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

adding:

Pirates +126

2 units

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Couldn't agree more on the two plays....and the Jays hammering Lee already up 4-0

As for the other two weird lines you mentioned...I agree. And I bit on the King Felix line, and I'm still wondering why I wasn't laying 40 cents.

I also played the O's. Only because I saw this Niemann guy from the 5th row of a Spring Training game a few weeks ago....and it was probably the worst performance I have seen by a professional, ever. 10 runs over 3 innings I believe...mostly against Jay AA and AAA players. Somehow he made the team as a spot starter/long reliever...and I swore if he made the team, I was going to fade him the first time I could. lol. Also....Guthrie one of the more under-appreciated starters in the AL, and the O's good young bats have been alive to start the year.

GL

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

LA Angels -112 & rl +170
Twins -115 & rl +140
Oakland +104

2 units each ml & 1/2 unit each rl

Not much time to give reasoning, but basically Saunders has been good career vs BOS, while Penny was crap last year, is probably still not right, and BOS is playing really poorly to start the year.

Liriano as this small of a fave looks good against washed up Colon and the old/slow White Sux who also have not looked good.

The A's line is puzzling. It looks way off, so I'm gonna back em and hope maybe someone knows something I don't? Or maybe it's cause the oddsmakers just aren't sold on Seattle, even though they've played well so far. Either way, the public is all over King Felix and the M's, and the line isn't exactly moving up in their favor.

[Stifler's Mom]

Another nice effort from BJ Ryan. Cost me the RL.

Maybe that experiment isn't going too well

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Another nice effort from BJ Ryan. Cost me the RL.

Maybe that experiment isn't going too well

Yeah...brutal. Had me ****ting. He hasnt been the same since the Tommy John surgery. 2 outs, nobody on....walks the bases loaded, and serves up an 88 MPH FB right down the pipe for a clearing double.

He's lost his closers job to Frasor and/or Downs now for sure. Too bad b/c he was great before the injury... and I really liked him,...oh well...the Jays bullpen did fine without him....now he'll just have to be a situational lefty this year...if that...

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, I always thought Ryan was pretty good when he was with Baltimore. He'll be a pretty highly paid situational lefty, lol, but better to use him that way than to let him keep blowing games (or almost blowing them anyway)

Well, it looks like that ball that hit the fence in the process of Jason Bay catching it just might cost me in what figures to be a close game where 1 run (he would have scored easily after Morales singled right behind him) and that 1 extra out could have made all the difference.

It just wouldn't be right if i didn't give back the 3 or so breaks I caught to open the season

And what's up with Liriano? 6 hits, 4 walks, and 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings? Much like Barry Zito, he blows.

Anyway, adding these 2:

Baltimore -120 & rl +160
Flubs -130 & rl +120

2 units each ml & 1/2 unit rl each

Line says it all with the O's. A team who who pretty much everyone thinks sucks favored over last year's world series rep. Public hammering away at TB too. A steady 70-71% all day long at sports insights.

I think "Big Z" will be a better fade than anything this year, as I think he'll fall apart physically as the year goes on. Tonight though, I have to assume he is healthy since he pitched well in his first start. He owned the Brewers last year, and pitches well in Miller Park. I know this is a huge public play, but, the line doesn't look all that "fishy" to me, with a respectable team catching +120 at home vs another good team and their ace. It seems about right....so I don't really suspect any type of "oddsmaker tomfoolery" here, lol, for lack of a better way to put it.

Who was it that decided it would be a good idea to make Kevin Gregg a closer in I believe FLA, after nothing much more than a few decent years as a middle reliever for LAA anyway?

Looks like I'll be jumping on SF later, but that will probably be it then for me.

[Stifler's Mom]

Guess I lied...

Arizona -115 & rl +165

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

Sort of a tail play...

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

I also played the O's. Only because I saw this Niemann guy from the 5th row of a Spring Training game a few weeks ago....and it was probably the worst performance I have seen by a professional, ever. 10 runs over 3 innings I believe...mostly against Jay AA and AAA players. Somehow he made the team as a spot starter/long reliever...and I swore if he made the team, I was going to fade him the first time I could. lol. Also....Guthrie one of the more under-appreciated starters in the AL, and the O's good young bats have been alive to start the year.

GL

Good call about that Neimann guy. I'm surprised he made it out of the first inning. Hopefully the O's do a little pitching tonight and hold the lead.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

LOL....yeah...Niemann....

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

[b]
Who was it that decided it would be a good idea to make Kevin Gregg a closer in I believe FLA, after nothing much more than a few decent years as a middle reliever for LAA anyway?

The fact that this turd is still a closer proves one thing. Lou Piniella is a complete idiot

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Who was it that decided it would be a good idea to make Kevin Gregg a closer in I believe FLA, after nothing much more than a few decent years as a middle reliever for LAA anyway?

LOL still the closer, and still blowin saves. Nice call Lou