Easter Sunday 4/12

[Stifler's Mom]

Holy headache I have today, plus not much time....so I'll be skipping any write ups.

Another poor day yesterday, back somewhere around even for the year...actually probably a little in the red now. Super. Last 3 days have been bad.

Fish +125

2 units

The rest in a bit. This one starts at like 1:10 so I wanted to get it posted.

[emv01]

GL Stif with you on the Fish

[Stifler's Mom]

O's +145

2 units

I'm sure everyone will LOL @ this one, but what the heck. I'm getting the team playing better ball at +145. Sure, Eaton sucks sometimes, but I remember plenty of times he's given his team a chance to win a game too.....especially if they are a team averaging 6 runs per game.

I just remember when this guy once had potential, so why does he suck now? Good question, and its anybody's guess i suppose. That happens to a lot of guys once they get the big payday. They get lazy, don't put in the work, and the results are crap.

This is his last go around for sure if he fails though, and he's a got a chip on his shoulder from being left off the world series roster for Philly, so I'm gonna take a flyer on him today and see if he has anything left in the tank, or if he'll be selling insurance by mid May, lol

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

O's +145

2 units

I'm sure everyone will LOL @ this one, but what the heck. I'm getting the team playing better ball at +145. Sure, Eaton sucks sometimes, but I remember plenty of times he's given his team a chance to win a game too.....especially if they are a team averaging 6 runs per game.

I just remember when this guy once had potential, so why does he suck now? Good question, and its anybody's guess i suppose. That happens to a lot of guys once they get the big payday. They get lazy, don't put in the work, and the results are crap.

This is his last go around for sure if he fails though, and he's a got a chip on his shoulder from being left off the world series roster for Philly, so I'm gonna take a flyer on him today and see if he has anything left in the tank, or if he'll be selling insurance by mid May, lol

OK. You convinced me. Going to tail.

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 22-20 (+0.71 units)
fave rl's 6-14 (-2.70 units)
overall 28-34 (-1.99 units)
rl faves who won the game by 1 run: 5 of 19

KC Royals +115
White Sux -148
San Diego +103
Arizona -152

2 units each

White Sux rl +140
Arizona rl +130

1/2 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

I'm having trouble posting today, that's why these plays are getting posted to close to the games starting. When i hit submit, it just sits there and does nothing forever. Anyone else having this happen?

I see Eaton is off to a blazing start

[Q-Unit]

stif no disrespect, but IMO I dont see too much of an advantage taking the RL as well as the ML

I totally understand the line of thought you have, but consider that even though for you records only 5 of 19 have been RL losses of 1 run, the point where you really lose money is the outright loss on the heavily favored ML, and on top of that a unit or so on the RL that didnt hit either way cuz the ML lost as well, right?

I mean I'm sure youre not oblivious to this lol just making an observation BOL today!

[FultonStreetBlues]

Q-please let Stif bet the way he wants to be...if thats his style so be it.

[BoilerBacker]

Bad inning, but he got out of it with two swinging strike outs. Need Balty to get up by 2 or 3.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, I see what you're saying....and you're right. I'm pretty much doing an experiment just to see how it works out. I know last year I made spot plays on the rl on games where team A was a short fave at like -107 or something and the rl was like +190 or +200 just because it seemed to present huge value, and it seemed if the team won the game, they always covered the rl too.

My main theory would be that it's more profitable to play EVERY fave on the RL and NEVER lay any ml chalk in baseball....and that you would come out better off this way, because 1 you'd get a better payout on your wins, and 2, you'd pay less for losses, because the number of losses you'd take from the fave winning by just 1 run wouldn't outweigh the extra profit and decreased loss.

Of course, this is exactly the same as when I tested years back in the NFL and found that it would be more profitable to play every dog of +7 or less on the ML instead of taking the points, and I'm still taking those f'n points on every play, with just a small ml play added on each small dog

[Q-Unit]

yeh I see your point. Esp with the NFL, that seems to work better especially if youre on the right side.

I do remember 2 years ago when we were doing the road system and it was stretched to 2-3 teams heavily juiced to game 6 of the given series, and I was strapped for cash because honestly I did not have the capital (or roll persay) for 3 games in the 6th game of the given series going on at the same time... almost what 50 units per? that was ridiculous to try to make 1 unit now that I reminisce about it LOL, but anyways, yeh I remember putting 1/3 on the ML and the rest on the RL just to ease the heavy juice.

It worked out well for luckily for me that time and I made out like a bandit but not without bouts of high blood pressure and something I can only describe as epic diarrhea lol.

[BoilerBacker]

Eaton = dynamite.

4K and 4 R

[Daws1089]

i've been having the same issue with posting. It's gonna cost me a winner one of these times lol

[Stifler's Mom]

Horrible decision to play on Eaton, who is still obviously terrible, lol, and Wolf gave a better performance than I thought he would. Otherwise a good day so far at 4-2.

add:

brewers +122

2 units

[Stifler's Mom]

****bag Suppan with 6 walks and counting and not even out of the 4th yet.

WTF is this? Little League?