Tuesday 4/21

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 51-54 (-17.01 units)
fave rl's 19-33 (-2.39 units)
overall 70-87 (-19.40 units)
faves who lost by 1 run: 7 of 52 (13.23%)

Twins +150

Baker a quality SP, and Twins with a good history vs up and down Wakefield, who is probably due to get rocked after nearly pitching a no hitter last time out. Twins on the road is never my favorite play, but this looks like a good spot to take a chance on them.

Royals +175

Royals solid vs LHP and the Tribe at -190 is a joke every day of the week. KC is the better overall team here imo, just gotta worry about fat boy holding it together half way decently for 5 or 6 innings....but I'll take my chances at this price.

Baltimore -105

Contreras, lol. I still say he sucks, even if he has been mildly mediocre this year. He's due to get pounded.

Brewers +119

Brewers right hand dominated lineup has historically been pretty good vs LHP. They hit the home run ball well too, and in a home run hitters park and against a 92 year old fly ball pitcher, that's bad news for grandpa Moyer if you ask me.

Houston/LA Dodgers over 9.5 -120

Strange number, considering Houston can't hit for ****. They're better vs LHP though, so i expect a little success off Kershaw, plus Russ Ortiz is pitching, lol

Detroit +100

Just taking Andres (lol) Galarraga and a Detroit team who can hit. My main concern with backing the Tigresses is their pitching, which usually isn't an issue with their best SP on the mound. Plus I'm just not impressed with LAA this year. I am concerned at the amount of people on this play though. Feels a little suckerish, but, it is what it is, and I see a nice enough advantage for Detroit to take the +100.

Seattle -105

Looks like TB quite possibly WAS at least a little bit of fluke last year, as they sit at 5-8, having just lost 3 of 4 to the White Sux, who were terrible on the road last year, and won like 6 games in domes in the last 2 years combined (which is saying something since MIN is in their division). TB would have been swept by CWS had it not been for one big inning, including 2 completely lopsided games in games 3 and 4, topped by a 12-2 blowout on Sunday.

TB was nothing special on the road last year either, nor were they anything worth speaking of vs LHP. I see no reason for either one of those things to change tonight, so I'll back Washbum, who has been solid, and that M's pen, who looks real good despite the loss of Putz over the ho hum Sonnanstine and a TB team who is still capable, but who is probably drawing too much respect for a great run last season.

2 units each

Reds +200

Taking a small stab at fading Dick Harden, whom I think blows simply because he is never healthy. Owings sucks too, but at 2/1 so be it.

1 unit

No rl plays tonight cause everything is either pick em or a dog @ -105 or less.